C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

[JenBayles]

Portastorm - I seem to recall that the Edwards Aquifer is getting dangerously low with so many months of drought conditions. Did I hear that right? I know this one system won't exactly recharge it much, but what are folk saying about it out in your neck of the woods? My MIL reported that before this system went through, it was back to dry, hard ground featuring fault-like cracks. So much for wildflowers in the Hill Country if this dry weather persists, huh?

[Portastorm]

Portastorm - I seem to recall that the Edwards Aquifer is getting dangerously low with so many months of drought conditions. Did I hear that right? I know this one system won't exactly recharge it much, but what are folk saying about it out in your neck of the woods? My MIL reported that before this system went through, it was back to dry, hard ground featuring fault-like cracks. So much for wildflowers in the Hill Country if this dry weather persists, huh?

Jen -- Your MIL is correct. Water tables in this area have been very low. Lake Travis (just west of Austin) is usually a good gauge and it was 22 feet BELOW normal on Sunday. This rain is going to help some and is needed. The upper end of the Highland Lakes chain though won't benefit very much because most of the rain from Sunday hit near the Balcones Escarpment and I-35 corridor so the areas far west didn't get all that much.

The locals are thinking this rain event will help the wildflowers "some" but the crop won't be one of the better ones, sadly.

[Portastorm]

This snippet from Saturday morning's AFD out of Austin/San Antonio:

"A DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE THIS WEEK.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS STORM TO
AFFECT SC TX TO BE FROM 00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY."

[double D]

Next week is looking very interesting indeed. We could end up with multiple days of heavy rain and possibly severe too. I'm just glad that were having good chances of rain as this area still needs rain badly, but the long range forecast is for a drier than normal spring...oh well, maybe they wont be right this time.

[double D]

Hmmm...the models seem to be backing down on the heavy rain for later this week, esecially the 12z NAM. I also noticed that the Austin/San Antonio NWS is also thinking the heaviest rain may be north of central Texas. I hope this does not indicate a trend for the rest of spring.

[Kelarie]

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR. BLANCO COUNTY IN SO. CNTL TX. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF.ROUND MOUNTAIN.BLANCO.
HAYS COUNTY IN SO. CNTL TX. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF.WIMBERLEY.SAN MARCOS.DRIPPING
SPRINGS. TRAVIS COUNTY IN SO. CNTL TX. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF.WINDEMERE.TANGLEWOOD FOREST.
PFLUGERVILLE.AUSTIN. WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SO. CNTL TX.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF.CEDAR PARK.ANDERSON MILL.

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1020 AM CDT.NWS DOPPLER RADAR & THE BLANCO COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED FLASH FLOODING OVER ROADS. HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD ACROSS N. HAYS & MOST OF TRAVIS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT TWO HRS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST LAKE HILLS.ROLLINGWOOD.PEDERNALES FALLS STATE PARK.MANSFIELD DAM.MANOR.LEANDER.LAKEWAY.LAGO VISTA.JOHNSON CITY. HENLY.GARFIELD.CYPRESS MILL.BERGSTROM & BEE CAVE

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS & UNDERPASSES. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED AREA. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

REPORT FLASH FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATL WEATHER SVC.

LAT.LON 3051 9771 3050 9756 3043 9738 3021 9749
2989 9790 2986 9788 2987 9791 2977 9800
2984 9803 3002 9826 3004 9831 2996 9842
3014 9858 3051 9858 3051 9838 3043 9813
3062 9805 3063 9797

$$

[Kelarie]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 92
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TORNADO WATCH 92 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC009-027-031-035-049-053-059-077-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-
121-133-139-143-145-147-171-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-267-
281-299-307-309-319-327-333-337-349-363-367-397-411-417-425-429-
439-453-485-491-497-503-302300-


TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BELL BLANCO BOSQUE BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN GILLESPIE GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN KIMBLE LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL SAN SABA SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TRAVIS WICHITA WILLIAMSON WISE YOUNG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...EWX...SJT...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FGUS74 KEWX 301344
ESFEWX
TXC491-053-299-031-171-453-265-259-091-055-177-187-209-019-029-325-
493-255-175-311400-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

...RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THE HILL COUNTRY...

MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. WIDESPREAD BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3.00 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING.

THIS RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...

- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOUTH FORK SAN GABRIEL RIVER NEAR S FK SAN GABRIEL @ GEORGETOWN
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SAN GABRIEL RIVER NEAR SAN GABRIEL RIVER @ GEORGETOWN
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE LLANO RIVER NEAR LLANO RIVER AT LLANO
- MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SANDY CREEK NEAR SANDY CREEK NEAR KINGSLAND
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE PEDERNALES RIVER NEAR PEDERNALES RVR@FREDERICKSBURG
- MAJOR FLOODING ON THE PEDERNALES RIVER NEAR PEDERNALES RVR NR JOHNSON CITY
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE BARTON CREEK NEAR AUS-BARTON CK @ LOOP
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE ONION CREEK NEAR ONION CREEK AT US
- MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM NEAR GUADALUPE RIVER AT HUNT
TO NEAR GUADALUPE RIVER AT COMFORT
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR GUADALUPE RVR NR SPRING BRANCH
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE BLANCO RIVER NEAR BLANCO RIVER AT WIMBERLEY
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SAN MARCOS RIVER NEAR SAN MARCOS RIVER AT LULING
- MINOR FLOODING ON THE PLUM CREEK NEAR PLUM CREEK NEAR LULING
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE MEDINA RIVER NEAR MEDINA RIVER AT BANDERA
- MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE MEDINA RIVER FROM NEAR MEDINA RIVER NEAR SOMERSET
TO NEAR SAT-MEDINA RIVER @ US
- MINOR FLOODING ON THE SALADO CREEK NEAR SAT-SALADO CK (LOWER STATION)
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR SAN ANTONIO RV NR ELMENDORF
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR SAN ANTONIO RVR NR FALLS CITY
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE CIBOLO CREEK NEAR CIBOLO CREEK NEAR FALLS CITY


A RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING...BUT IT IS NOT IMMINENT. FORECAST RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO CRITICAL STAGES. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA.

[vbhoutex]

Just talked with my son who is driving through the Austin area as I type. There has been some minor flash flooding on the East side to the East of the airport on 71. Everyone in the greater Austin area be careful!!!

Now that I have had a chance to look at radar, it does appear that the worst is over for the Austin area, at least for now.

[Portastorm]

Just read Bastardi from earlier today and he's talking the possibility of snow/ice as far south as the Hill Country this weekend. Un-freakin'-believable! The NWS numbers aren't that far off from such an unthinkable event. This could be quite a weekend!

[Portastorm]

And this just in from the evening forecast update out of Austin-San Antonio NWS office:

"IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z MODELS AND 12Z ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TREND OF COLDER LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MENTION SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD FUTURE MODELS CONTINUE THAT TREND."

[double D]

Just read Bastardi from earlier today and he's talking the possibility of snow/ice as far south as the Hill Country this weekend. Un-freakin'-believable! The NWS numbers aren't that far off from such an unthinkable event. This could be quite a weekend!

We might get two ice events here in Fredericksburg in one week... one from a hail storm on Tuesday and one from snow/ice this weekend. I don't think I can ever remember getting this cold in April down here. I would think low to mid 40's for highs would have to set some kind of record for the month of April.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just read Bastardi from earlier today and he's talking the possibility of snow/ice as far south as the Hill Country this weekend. Un-freakin'-believable! The NWS numbers aren't that far off from such an unthinkable event. This could be quite a weekend!

We might get two ice events here in Fredericksburg in one week... one from a hail storm on Tuesday and one from snow/ice this weekend. I don't think I can ever remember getting this cold in April down here. I would think low to mid 40's for highs would have to set some kind of record for the month of April.

That would be crazy.