Well, it looks as though SOME of the statistical models have changed their overall opinion about the ENSO outlook for the summer months. It seems as though the GENERAL concensus has shifted slightly--we may indeed have ENSO neutral conditions on our hands by the time summer and hurricane season arrives. Although some models such as the GFS still suggests a rapid change from EL Nino to La Nina, it again appears that maybe the model consensus may be shifting a bit to suggest neutral conditions. While there are still lots of models suggesting La Nina conditions, it appears that a simple majority are suggesting neutral condtions. Remember, 2005 was a neutral year (not to suggest anything). Here is the current ENSO outlook as of today. Read it yourself and make your own prediction. Note: SST Anomalies in Atlantic are still running above normal and have been for a SOLID YEAR now (heat buildup in tropics). While I may not be a qualified weather forecaster, if you notice the outlook put out by NOAA, this summer looks to be a hot one for the Gulf Coast, Eastern Seaboard, and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. This COULD be the signs of a west Atlantic ridge that MAY stay stationary throughout much of the hurricane season. Again I am not a forecaster so dont bash me please. These are all just observations.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf PDF File Format
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.ppt PPT File Format
NOAA'S TEMP AND PRECIP MAPS FOR SUMMER MONTHS:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html (even more interesting later in the season)
keep it up!