WRC 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast

[skywarn]

The Weather Research Center out of Houston Texas has come out with their 2007 forecast. The Louisiana to Alabama coastline has the highest risk of a landfalling tropical storm/hurricane. The second highest risk being the west coast of Florida and the Georgia /North Carolina coastline. They predict only 7 named systems with 4 attaining huricane status.

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2007huroutmar15.pdf

Map: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/2007out.jpg

[JonathanBelles]

Why does the west coast of florida have a higher chance than the east coast?

[Ptarmigan]

Ah, the Weather Research Center, also runs a weather museum.

[Scorpion]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

[JonathanBelles]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

I think they meant 7 US hits by TS's

[skywarn]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

I think they meant 7 US hits by TS's

No.It's 7 named storms.They have 3 of the 7 making U.S. landfalls.

[JonathanBelles]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

I think they meant 7 US hits by TS's

No.It's 7 named storms.They have 3 of the 7 making U.S. landfalls.

oOo i misread that, they must be very wrong.

[HurricaneHunter914]

7? That's less than last years amount of storms and that was an El Nino. Since we are expecting a weak La Nina this year I was expecting the forecast to be at least hire than 10. Forecasting 7 named storms sounds more like wishful thinking.

[george_r_1961]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

Was thinking the same thing. While I do not think we will have a repeat of 2005 7 named storms may be just a little low.

[Grease Monkey]

Nothing to fret about. They will be able to change their forecasts every month of hurricane season just like everyone else, so eventually they will get their forecasts more accurate.

[Lindaloo]

7 named storms? Can I have some of what they're smoking?

[Jagno]

Louisiana to Alabama, highest risk................................now that didn't give me the warm fuzzies all over. I wonder why they've selected this area of the Gulf coast and didn't include Texas?

[MGC]

Gee, that puts me in the bullseye.....I put more faith in my forecast and I've been off by quite a few names storms....MGC

[brunota2003]

And how many years in a row does this make for NC being put in the top two risk areas? I'm still waiting for that major hurricane to hit here that was supposed to hit a few seasons back *knocks on wood 3 times*

[Lindaloo]

And how many years in a row does this make for NC being put in the top two risk areas? I'm still waiting for that major hurricane to hit here that was supposed to hit a few seasons back *knocks on wood 3 times*

I was gonna tell you to knock on wood, but you already did. lol.

[Extremeweatherguy]

funny how the risk suddenly changes at borders. For instance, LA to AL has a 70% risk, yet Texas only has a 40% risk. Strange how you can cross a border and suddenly have the risk drop by 30%. Another example of this is also the NC/VA border. In NC the risk is 60%, yet in VA it is 30%. This doesn't make too much sense, IMO...

Plus, as everyone else has said...7 named storms? 4 hurricanes? What are they smoking!? There is just no way this will happen if we do see a La nina this year, and even without La Nina, I highly doubt that we would have two back to back slow seasons during a warm Atlantic cycle anyways. Just doesn't seem very likely at all.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

After the last several years I'm no longer on the "landfall area bandwagon". I feel it (seasonal landfall area projections before the fact) is no more reliable than, say throwing darts at a dart board. The more people that throw the more likely someone will hit the right spot, and later claim they are the current champ. It doesn't mean there is any good science behind said prediction, just means with a limited amount of possibilities and a large number of prognosticators; it is statistically inevitable that someone will luck out.

[jdray]

funny reading.

SE Florida has the same chance as NE Florida?
Georgia has twice as high chance to get hit versus its neighbor in NE Florida?


LOL

[wxman57]

Their sunspot theory doesn't allow for a prediction over the climatological norm, for the most part.

1996-2000 predictions: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/box3.htm

2001-2005 predictions: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/box4.htm

Note that they always forecast between 6 and 11 named storms. Last year they forecast that 2006 would be the most active season in the last 10 years (11 named storms). In 2005, they predicted only 10 named storms (and I think they tweaked the number up from 9 in July after we'd almost reached 9 by the end of July).

In 2004, we were all waiting for Jill Hasling to make her OCSI presentation at the 26th Conference on Tropical Meteorology in Miami. All the leading research scientists were there, ready to grill her about this theory. Standing room only. I was talking to Dr. Gray before anyone else arrived. He was anxious to question Jill about their theory. She didn't show up for the talk.

What gets me is that the headlines of the local paper will get wind of the forecast of an 80% chance that the Gulf will be "affected" and run with it like it's the end of the world, where that's below the climatological norm. And if you go back and check their "verification", you'll see it's very ambiguous. It's definitely not related to the center of a storm impacting a loction. In some cases, it looks like a forecast is verified if cirrus outflow passes over a state.

Looks like pure junk science, to me.

[Opal storm]

I know it's early but with this ridge currently parked over the Southeast US most of the Gulf will be spared of big storms this summer.