GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[gatorcane]

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) March forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2007 continues to anticipate an active season to high probability. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007. This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984. There is a high (~86%) likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically.
This is the source
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... g_b_1.html


ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLFo ... ar2007.pdf

"This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984"

That's just great, thanks for the info

[meteorologyman]

and how accurate have these forecast been in the past overall?

Pretty accurate, look at 2004 and 2005 they were pretty highnumbers as well and we got slammed, however in 2006 the numbers were high but that time frame I don't think we were looking at el nino at the start of the season.

I lost the site but I do remember the Nahtional Hurricane Center stating that there accuracy is very good

[cycloneye]

Atlantic Anomalies as of March 17

The Eastern Atlantic is quit warm as well the MDR area between the Lesser Antilles and 40w.Also the subtropical Atlantic north of 20n is also warm.

[JPmia]

Compared to 2004 and 2005, are we looking at a warmer Atlantic this summer than those years or about the same? Prior to the 2005 season's start, I remember hearing all the experts say that they have never observed the Tropical regions of the Atlantic so warm.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True. 90% of the Basin looks slightly, or even moderately above normal (with several notable pockets of much above normal) right now. Should be interesting to see how things progress as we roll towards Summer 2007.

[cycloneye]

The most important graphic about how the waters are in terms of how warm or how less warm they are is the Heat Content graphic.Surely the Heat Content in the Atlantic Basin in March,2007 is a little warmer than in 2006 and almost the same as 2004-05.

Below is the Gulf of Mexico Heat Content.

[canegrl04]

alittle warmer than 2006 and about the same as 04-05




Get ready for a wild ride this season

[cycloneye]

alittle warmer than 2006 and about the same as 04-05




Get ready for a wild ride this season

However,water temperatures are not the only factor to look into to see how a season will turn out,but surely it's one of the most important factors.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The most important graphic about how the waters are in terms of how warm or how less warm they are is the Heat Content graphic.Surely the Heat Content in the Atlantic Basin in March,2007 is a little warmer than in 2006 and almost the same as 2004-05.

Below is the Gulf of Mexico Heat Content.

The bottom picture looks like a finger pointing at the ALA/FL border. A sign of things to come?

['CaneFreak]

Just a quick note of caution--this is not a heat content map....this is a measure of how deep the 26 degree isotherm is...techniquely heat content is measured in kg/cm squared...just warning you....you could argue that this is a heat content map, but techniquely it isn't....

[meteorologyman]

Moisture is slightly increasing, One of the key ingredients for tropical developement

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212305
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W JUST S OF THE EQUATOR FROM
22W-35W THEN ALONG 3N45W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-27W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES RE-ENFORCING THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT IS NOT IN THE GULF.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA
EASTWARD. STRONG SURFACE E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
GULF WITH SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF FROM OVER GEORGIA SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE N GULF WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS CONTINUING
TO KEEP THE MUCH OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER
WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 28N FROM
88W-92W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING MOST THE AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF A FEW DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO
GIVE THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N FROM 72W-80W. THE MOSITURE LEVELS
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER FLORIDA
TO 60W. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N54W EXTENDING SSW ALONG 24N62W. OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120/150
NM OF LINE 26N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 16NE OF 40W
CENTERED NEAR 30N28W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC AND SECOND E/W RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND
OVER AFRICA.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Moisture levels are definitly increasing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

Can't say the same for the EPAC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/wv-l.jpg

[canegrl04]

Can't say the same for the EPAC


If everyone recalls,2005 was a somewhat inactive season for the EPAC while the Atlantic was hotter than hec with activity.Could be an early sign that we will have a 2005 redux,just as last year was fairly quiet while theEPAC was busy

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Take the below comment with caution, as many factors can influence Basin activity:

That is how the general cycle tends to work the majority of the time; When EPAC is inactive the Atlantic is active, or the other way around.

[cycloneye]

Just a quick note of caution--this is not a heat content map....this is a measure of how deep the 26 degree isotherm is...techniquely heat content is measured in kg/cm squared...just warning you....you could argue that this is a heat content map, but techniquely it isn't....

This above graphic is what you are referring to right?

['CaneFreak]

Yes it is!!! Notice it is measured in KiloJoules/cm squared; a measurement of energy divided by a measurement of area. In other words, for every cm squared of area on the sea surface, there is approximately 50 KiloJoules of potential latent (hidden) heat energy available for the evaporation of water (area just south of Jamaica). See how the other map really wasn't a map of heat content?

[Grease Monkey]

The bottom picture looks like a finger pointing at the ALA/FL border. A sign of things to come?

Are you sure that's the finger that does the pointing or is it trying to communicate something else?

[MississippiHurricane]

[canegrl04]

The bottom picture looks like a finger pointing at the ALA/FL border. A sign of things to come?

Are you sure that's the finger that does the pointing or is it trying to communicate something else?

Oh my.Its flipping off the Gulf!Bad sign for this season

[cycloneye]

Above are the very latest anomalies data in the Atlantic Basin.The Eastern Atlantic continues to be one of the most warmest in the basin,as well the Central Atlantic.