ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree Delta. They have definitely been off the mark on the Nino's. I think there just studying Nino's and have along way of understanding it. Heck it wasn't much more then 10 years ago that we realized the effect of El Nino and Hurricane #'s decreasing. Using models for Nino's is like rolling the dice. I just hope down here in south Fl. we get some rain soon. The good news is a weak El Nino didn't supply the rain so maybe a weak La Nina will.

[bvigal]

This news is not what we want to hear, that's for sure. While La Nina may not guarantee a busy or severe storm season, it sure won't do anything to put a cap on activity, either. Hopefully it will be neutral by June 1, but I'm not sure I can ignore the predictions. There are other factors that raise my level of concern for this season.

Usually, I need a blanket on my bed from early January through mid-March. This year, I used it for one week, and then it was too hot. We had no winter, basically. We broke high temperature records in February. We had very little rain during our "rainy season" in November and early December, and many cisterns are running dry. Those working in the dive industry here report local water temps are as warm as they usually are in mid-late May. I think it's possible we'll have some very warm waters in the W/At, Caribbean by June.

[Jim Hughes]

Noaa screwed up on the el nino very badly. The stupid CFS model really stunk as well.

I agree but some people, like myself, forecasted this developing La Nina back in January, before NOAA, and I can also fall back on my previous ENSO calls during the past 12 years. So bringing NOAA's track record to the table is a futile arguement in my opinion. And it holds absolutely no weight.

[SouthFloridawx]

Unfortunately, there have been many more neutral years than la nina or el nino years, and has shown that Neutral Years can produce as many storms if not more than in la nina.

Let's take the 1999 Season which there was a La Nina during the season. Temps were running 1 - 2 degrees below normal and it had a total of 12 Storms that year.

The 2003 season on the other hand had an early El Nino before the start and mainly had neutral conditions with temps running above normal. 2003 also had 16 named storms.

There are quite a few examples where Neutral Conditions have brought more storms than, la nina.

A few factors have to come into play to make an active season active. Pacific SST'S are only one of them, but unfortunately there are experts out there predicting another above normal season. This could also be due to the Active Cycle we are currently in now.

Let's just hope that those ssts in the pac. warm up some, eventhough it doesn't look that is going to happen. Most of the models are showing neutral to just below normal ssts in the pac. SST models don't seem to be that great and any insight I can get from jim is much appriciated. He is on the verge of proving that space weather does have some affect on the planet here, and why should it not. Earth is in space and factors going on outside of our planet, that affect our planet, should not be ignored.

Anyway, lets see what happens. Can't wait till the predictions thread pops up again.

[meteorologyman]

I have a theory, I think solar flares do have to do with formation of La Nina/ El nino, it depends where earth is facing
towards or away from sun flares
Here is the sites that go w/ my theoery (under classification of flares)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare

El Nino/La Nina years
http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm

[gatorcane]

Let's just hope that those ssts in the pac. warm up some, eventhough it doesn't look that is going to happen. Most of the models are showing neutral to just below normal ssts in the pac. SST models don't seem to be that great and any insight I can get from jim is much appriciated. He is on the verge of proving that space weather does have some affect on the planet here, and why should it not. Earth is in space and factors going on outside of our planet, that affect our planet, should not be ignored.

.

At this time every year we look at the Western Pacific and think it won't warm up....give it about 3-4 months and it should.

[wxman57]

At this time every year we look at the Western Pacific and think it won't warm up....give it about 3-4 months and it should.

That was the case last year, but the tradewinds are different this year. Trades are stronger than normal (easterly winds) this year, which may keep Pacific tropical waters cooling this spring. I believe there were a number of westerly wind bursts last year, along with lower-than-normal tradewinds that helped warm the Pacific tropical waters. No sign of that yet.

[gatorcane]

At this time every year we look at the Western Pacific and think it won't warm up....give it about 3-4 months and it should.

That was the case last year, but the tradewinds are different this year. Trades are stronger than normal (easterly winds) this year, which may keep Pacific tropical waters cooling this spring. I believe there were a number of westerly wind bursts last year, along with lower-than-normal tradewinds that helped warm the Pacific tropical waters. No sign of that yet.

True, as usual we will have to keep monitoring the trades in that region as we move closer to hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Can't wait till the predictions thread pops up again.

It's getting closer to the date for the start of the official storm2k poll (April 1).



Here is the latest from the subsurface.For sure those cool waters are covering a big chunck of the Equatorial Central/Eastern Pacific.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately, there have been many more neutral years than la nina or el nino years, and has shown that Neutral Years can produce as many storms if not more than in la nina.

Let's take the 1999 Season which there was a La Nina during the season. Temps were running 1 - 2 degrees below normal and it had a total of 12 Storms that year.

The 2003 season on the other hand had an early El Nino before the start and mainly had neutral conditions with temps running above normal. 2003 also had 16 named storms.

There are quite a few examples where Neutral Conditions have brought more storms than, la nina.

A few factors have to come into play to make an active season active. Pacific SST'S are only one of them, but unfortunately there are experts out there predicting another above normal season. This could also be due to the Active Cycle we are currently in now.

Let's just hope that those ssts in the pac. warm up some, eventhough it doesn't look that is going to happen. Most of the models are showing neutral to just below normal ssts in the pac. SST models don't seem to be that great and any insight I can get from jim is much appriciated. He is on the verge of proving that space weather does have some affect on the planet here, and why should it not. Earth is in space and factors going on outside of our planet, that affect our planet, should not be ignored.

Anyway, lets see what happens. Can't wait till the predictions thread pops up again.

Very true. 2005 was Neutral and it ended up being the most active season on record. 1995 and 1933 were also Neutral years. It is more than just ENSO. Also, we have to look at North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. I would also look at the Sahel region as well because if there is a drought in that area, less tropical waves can form.

[deltadog03]

Well, I still feel like the water profiles are just pulsing right now. We are in and will likely stay in a weak la nada for a couple of months, but I think the CFS model is OVER bullish on the severity of it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the waters warmed a bit since the 9th.

[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.13.2007.gif[/web]

[SouthFloridawx]

Also... looks like we have mixed warm and cool anomalies:

[web]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif[/web]

Still above normal winds over the area so we'll probably see some additional cooling.

[Jim Hughes]

Also... looks like we have mixed warm and cool anomalies:

Yes we do have some differences but the warmth is further west, and while important, it is not as important, at least not yet. This mixture is also not that unusual in the early stages.

The La Nina push has subsided a little and I have been talking about this somewhere else during the past week or two. But this is no big deal and not entirely uncharacterisitic. Especially during the past several years.

We get a ENSO phase signal or push during late winter - early spring but it does not take
off immediately. We then see another push down the road a ways. I still expect this event to gain strength as the year goes on but I would now give the weak-moderate level more of an equal chance. I originally gave the moderate level a much better chance to occur when I first made my forecast back in January. I would only give the strong level a slim chance.

[cycloneye]

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html

This is an independent firm that does ENSO forecasting since the last 5 years.Read the March outlook from them and reach your own conclusions about what they say about La Nina at 50% by mid 2007.

Below is the probabilistic forecast for La Nina/Neutral and El Nino from this independent firm.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure3.html

What I see from their March outlook,it seems that La Nina wont be a strong one by any means and that is also seen in the BoM and CPC outlooks.At best it will be a weak to maybe moderate La Nina flipping to Neutral late in the summer going into the fall.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest subsurface update.The cool waters are still rising to the surface in most of the equatorial pacific except in El Nino 4 area where they are warmer.

[cycloneye]

Pacific Anomalies as of March 17

The weak La Nina is trying to hold on but still some warm anomalies are present at El Nino 3-4 area and on part of El Nino 1-2 zone.

[JonathanBelles]

can somebody enlighten me on the El Nino zones?

[cycloneye]

can somebody enlighten me on the El Nino zones?

[James]

Those cooler anomalies really starting to show up more now on the surface in the E. Pacific.