NWAus: ex-TC Kara

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 121.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TO THE WEST OF THE
AUSTRALIAN KIMBERLY COAST. A 232330Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THAT
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
LLCC. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS ORGANIZING QUICKLY AND
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 12:40pm WDT on Saturday the 24th of March 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Tropical Low off northwest Kimberley coast
Location at noon WDT Saturday : near 15.9S 121.4E
about 250 kilometres [135 nautical miles] north northwest of Broome and
575 kilometres [310 nautical miles] north northeast of Port Hedland
Central Pressure : 1004hPa
Recent movement : West at 15 kilometres per hour [8 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Sunday : high
Monday : high
Tuesday : high
REMARKS - The low has moved off the Kimberley coast and shown signs of
development overnight. It has a high chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone during Sunday or Monday. It is likely to continue moving to the west
away from the coast over the weekend but may recurve towards the coast early in
the week. Gales are not expected on the coast over the weekend.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Chacor]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:55 pm WDT on Saturday, 24 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Onslow to Cape Leveque.

At 3:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be 265 kilometres northwest of
Broome and 535 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland, moving west at 17
kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Sunday or on Monday. It is
expected to continue heading west overnight and early Sunday but is likely to
recurve towards the coast later on Sunday or on Monday. Gales are not expected
on the coast on Sunday but could develop on Monday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 75 kilometres of
latitude 16.0 south longitude 120.8 east
Recent movement : west at 17 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 1004 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 85 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Tropical Low

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Onslow and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.
The next warning will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Saturday 24 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF model is picking this up and has it making landfall in NW Australia as what appears to be a moderate tropical cyclone in about 4 days time.

[P.K.]

Centre pressure is down to 1002hPa now.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1300UTC 24 MARCH 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal two south [16.2S]
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal five east [119.5E]
Recent movement : west at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants, extending to all
quadrants in 24 hours time.

FORECAST
Sustained winds increasing to 25/35 knots within 100 nautical miles in western
quadrants after 1800UTC 24 March, increasing to 30/40 knots and extending to all
quadrants after 1200 UTC 25 March. Moderate to rough seas increasing to rough to
very rough seas on a rising swell.

At 0000 UTC 25 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.2 south 117.9 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots.
At 1200 UTC 25 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.4 south 117.2 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 24 March 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Not looking very good at the moment.

[Chacor]

Improving...




IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 8:55 am WDT on Sunday, 25 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Onslow to Broome. The CYCLONE WATCH between Cape Leveque and Broome has been
cancelled.

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 470 kilometres north northwest
of Port Hedland and 495 kilometres north of Karratha, moving west at 18
kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Sunday or on
Monday. It is expected to continue heading west southwest during Sunday but is
likely to recurve towards the coast on Monday. Gales are not expected on the
coast on Sunday or Monday but could develop on Tuesday.

Heavy rain may cause flooding in the Pilbara later in the week as the system
approaches the coast. At this stage it seems unlikely that the low will impact
the coast as a severe tropical cyclone.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 16.3 south longitude 117.3 east
Recent movement : west at 18 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 998 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 85 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Tropical Low

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Onslow and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Sunday 25 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 250230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 117.8E TO 17.0S 113.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 117.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
1118.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER
AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 242233Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BENEATH THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 260230Z.//

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 250642
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 25/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 116.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 16.9S 115.7E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 26/0600: 17.6S 115.2E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 972
+36: 26/1800: 17.9S 115.4E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 980
+48: 27/0600: 18.1S 116.1E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 988
+60: 27/1800: 18.4S 117.2E: 190 [350]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 28/0600: 19.0S 118.1E: 230 [425]: 030 [055]: 996
REMARKS:
Organisation of the system has improved considerably in the last 24 hours.
Curved band scene type has given consistent DT3.0 and FT has been set to 3.0 as
soon as constraints allowed.

Scatterometer pass this morning shows surface wind field has responded with
credible 40 knot winds in band to the south. Conditions generally favourable,
however shear increases from Monday on with subsequent track then dependent on
strength of system when the large high to the south west begins to push in.
Models with stronger circulation depict SE track, but system should weaken as it
approaches the coast under shear. Other models show a weaker system with the
shallower steering resulting in a balance between the low level easterlies and
the upper westerlies, hence more likely to weaken in situ. Given current
intensity the former scenario is slightly favoured.

Principal concern in relation to impact is potential for flooding in YPPD
region.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[P.K.]

Kara is now a cat 2 with 50kt sustained winds.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Sunday, 25 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
455 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
490 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara is moving parallel to the Pilbara coast and is expected to
intensify further in the next 12 to 24 hours. Gales are not expected in coastal
areas overnight or during the day on Monday. However, gales could develop in
coastal areas between Exmouth and Wallal on Monday night or Tuesday as the
system takes a more southerly track and moves closer to the coast.

As Tropical Cyclone Kara moves to the south or southeast it is expected to
weaken in an unfavourable environment, and at this stage the most likely outcome
is that it will not impact the coast as a severe tropical cyclone.

Heavy rain may cause flooding in the Pilbara during the week as the system
approaches the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 pm WST.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 16.7 south longitude 116.0 east
Recent movement : west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 978 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[Chacor]

891
AXAU01 APRF 251239
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1239 UTC 25/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 116.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [46 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 HRs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 17.2S 114.9E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 970
+24: 26/1200: 17.2S 114.1E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 968
+36: 27/0000: 17.0S 114.8E: 120 [220]: 055 [100]: 974
+48: 27/1200: 17.4S 115.7E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 978
+60: 28/0000: 18.1S 117.0E: 180 [335]: 045 [085]: 980
+72: 28/1200: 18.9S 118.2E: 210 [390]: 040 [075]: 984
REMARKS:
Organisation of the system has improved considerably in the last 24 hours with
the system showing deep organised convection wrapping around the low level
centre. The system is likely to continue to develop in the 12 hour time frame
under weak to moderate shear and as an outflow channel develops to the SW in
response to an approaching mid level trough. This mid level trough will,
however, shear the system in 36 to 48 hours, in concert with a strong surface
high developing to the SW of the state.

Model guidance is mostly absent, however mid level steering suggests southwest
or southerly in the 12 to 24 hour time frame, followed by increasing SE'ly
motion as a shearing system. Current track guidance relies heavily on EC input.

Principal concern in relation to community impact is potential for flooding in
the central and east Pilbara regions.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Sunday, 25 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
460 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
495 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara is moving parallel to the Pilbara coast and is expected to
intensify slightly in the next 12 hours. Gales are not expected in coastal areas
overnight or during the day on Monday. However, gales could develop in coastal
areas between Exmouth and Wallal on Monday night or Tuesday as the system takes
a more southerly track and moves closer to the coast.

As Tropical Cyclone Kara moves to the south or southeast it is expected to
weaken in an unfavourable environment, and at this stage the most likely outcome
is that it will not impact the coast as a severe tropical cyclone.

Heavy rain may cause flooding in the Pilbara during the week as the system
approaches the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 11:00 pm WST.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 16.7 south longitude 115.9 east
Recent movement : west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 978 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[web]http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60280.gif?1174838007940[/web]

[web]http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR162.gif?20070326021319[/web]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 3:00 am WDT on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be 440 kilometres north
northwest of Karratha and 475 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland, moving south
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara has intensified slightly overnight and slowed down with
recent movement now towards the south southwest.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today but may develop overnight or on
Tuesday in coastal areas between Exmouth and Wallal as the cyclone moves closer
to the coast.

Although Tropical Cyclone Kara may intensify further today it will most likely
weaken prior to reaching the coast. At this stage the most likely outcome is
that it will not impact the coast as a severe tropical cyclone.

Heavy rain may cause flooding in the Pilbara during the week as the system
approaches the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 2:00 am WST.

Location of centre : within 46 kilometres of
latitude 16.9 south longitude 115.9 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 978 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 6:00 am WDT on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for coastal areas from
Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be 410 kilometres north
northwest of Karratha and 465 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland, moving south
southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara has intensified slightly overnight and begun moving
towards the south southwest. As the cyclone moves closer to the coast it is more
likely to move to the south or southeast.

Although Tropical Cyclone Kara may intensify further today this should not be
sustained through to landfall. While it is possible it may reach the coast as a
severe tropical cyclone it is more likely to begin weakening prior to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today but may develop overnight or on
Tuesday in coastal areas between Exmouth and Wallal as the cyclone moves closer
to the coast.

Heavy rain may cause flooding in the Pilbara during the week as the system
approaches the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Kara at 5:00 am WST.

Location of centre : within 46 kilometres of
latitude 17.2 south longitude 115.7 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 972 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 150 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 2

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Winds have increased 20 kilometres.

[HURAKAN]

Very small cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be 380 kilometres
north northwest of Karratha and 455 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland, moving
south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Kara has intensified significantly overnight and is now
tracking south southwest towards the coast. There is greater than usual
uncertainty regarding its future track, however during today it is most likely
to continue tracking towards the coast, possibly steering towards the southeast
by Tuesday.

Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, capable of intensifying and
weakening quite rapidly. It may intensify further today but is likely to weaken
prior to coastal impact.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas during today but may develop overnight
or on Tuesday as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding in the Pilbara during the week as the system
approaches the coast.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 8:00 am WST.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 17.6 south longitude 115.4 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 966 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by noon WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices and
State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Winds went up another 20 kilometres and now we have a Severe Cat. 3

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0046 UTC 26/03/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Kara
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 115.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (210 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (170 km/h)
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (46 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm (28 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (19 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/18HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 26/1200: 18.2S 115.0E: 050 (095): 070 (130): 962
+24: 27/0000: 18.7S 115.2E: 085 (155): 060 (110): 970
+36: 27/1200: 19.2S 115.9E: 130 (240): 045 (085): 984
+48: 28/0000: 19.7S 116.5E: 170 (315): 040 (075): 990
REMARKS:
Eye was evident in microwave overnight, now emerging on IR. DT of 5.0 is possible on 2230 and 2330Z images. MET is 4.0 with PT assessed at 4.5. FT of 4.5 is at upper bound without breaking constraints. Rapid development is in line with small size of the system and the favourable environment. Expect the system will respond equally quickly to increasing wind shear from 12Z tonight.

Greater than usual uncertainty regarding future track with latest runs of most models failing to capture recent movement. Given the small size of the system and the finely balanced steering pattern this is to be expected. Track prediction is weighted towards older model runs that were consistent with recent movement, and are consistent with a synoptic assessment of steering patterns.

Principal concern in relation to community impact is potential for flooding in the central and east Pilbara regions.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Cyclenall]

I just checked this tropical cyclone out after viewing it earlier today and I thought it was a very small cyclone. I then looked at it just 15 minutes ago and Kara could be strengthening extremely rapidly because of a very tiny pin-hole eye forming with the stadium effect eyewall. This is one to watch. I wonder how powerful it can get before the shear will effect it?

[Chacor]

80 kt (10-min), 950 hPa, T5.0/5.0/D1.5/18HRS. Expected to peak in about 12 hours at 90 kt, 938 hPa.

BOM technical summary:
EIR surrounding temp of W with CMG/B E adj. gives DT5.5. MET is 4.5 PT 5.0 FT 5.0.

Rapid development is in line with small size of the system and the favourable environment which could see intensity reach category 4 tonight. However, expect the system will respond equally quickly to increasing wind shear after 12Z tonight and begin weakening.

Greater than usual uncertainty regarding future track with latest runs of most models failing to capture recent movement. Given the small size of the system and the finely balanced steering pattern this is to be expected. Track prediction is biased towards a synoptic assessment of steering patterns.

Principal concern in relation to community impact is potential for flooding in the central and east Pilbara regions.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 5:50 pm WST on Monday, 26 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is current for coastal areas
from Exmouth to Wallal.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues from Wallal to Broome.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara was estimated to be
340 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
435 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland,
moving south at 7 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara has continued to intensify today as it moves
southward towards the coast. There is greater than usual uncertainty regarding
its future track, with a southerly track most likely in the short term then
possibly steering towards the southeast during Tuesday.

Kara is a small but intense tropical cyclone, capable of intensifying and
weakening quite rapidly. It may intensify further over the next 6 to 12 hours
but is likely to weaken prior to coastal impact.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas overnight but may develop later on
Tuesday as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding in the Pilbara as the system approaches the coast.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara at 5:00 pm WST.

Location of centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 18.1 south longitude 115.2 east
Recent movement : south at 7 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 942 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 220 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Pardoo
including Mardie, Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Samson, Whim
Creek, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pannawonica and Fortescue Roadhouse should
commence taking precautions.
Remaining communities between Exmouth and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Monday 26 March.Cyclone advices
and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone