Synoptic setup for 2007 hurricane season

[boca]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since it seems more likely that La Nina will play a role in the upcoming season I wonder if their will be recurvatures around 60W like last year. I could be wrong but I think the Bermuda high will extend further west in a La Nina type pattern rather than the pattern of last year which wxman57 brought up last year. He said by August in the heart of the season we were already in a winter time like pattern with fronts coming in like a conveyor belt which displaced the bermuda high in the central Atlantic causing these storms to curve north around Bermuda. I certainly think the EC and Gulf will have to watch more carefully this season.

Here's a link with wxman57's reply:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92848

[cycloneye]

Boca,I added the storm2k disclaimer to your post.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I posted something similar on an earlier thread, but I think it makes sense here too...

The 9 last La Nina hurricane seasons looked like this:

2000 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at2000.gif

1999 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1999.gif

1998 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1998.gif

1995 (end of season) = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1995.gif

1988 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1988.gif

1983 (end of season) = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1983.gif

1975 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1975.gif

1974 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1974.gif

1973 = http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at1973.gif

Based on these years alone, it seems like anything could happen. Some storms could go west into the GOM, some could curve up the east coast, and some could stay out to sea. One thing that does seem like a trend between these years though is U.S. landfalls. Looks like we should expect a lot of them this season if the trend holds.

[Opal storm]

I don't think there really is a connection between La Nina and the tracks these storms take.Looking at those maps EWG posted,pretty much anything can happen in a La Nina year.

[kba981]

out of those list dates. all but 2 had a florida landfall, and a double hit at that.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think overall in the big scheme of things... La Nina is an effect of something happening, and not a causation. Something is happening with the climate and weather patterns to the west of the Cont. US. Also you have to take a look at the North of us and see what the long-wave pattern is. All in all, I think la nina or el nino is more of indicator, rather than an animal itself. Cooler than normal nino regions just happen to cause lowered windshear in the Atlantic Basin, because most weather moves from west to east in our region of the world.

What is happening that is causing the la nina, would be a better question than approaching it as La Nina, being a monster on it's own.

Not arguing with anyone, cause I agree with Boca's prediction.

[meteorologyman]

"This is not an official forecast and should not be taken as such"

from looking at images and graphs this is "what I see"

*SSt's continue to warm in Atlantic/cool in Pacific
*La nina appears to get stronger week, by week and is continue to progress
*Shearwind are below average in areas and lowshearing is to continue to progress in Atlanic, opposite for Pacific
*Moisture level is certainly on the increase in Atlantic where it's dry in Pacific
*Tropical Storm Factor read that it's the highest ever recorded for March
*Though Bermuda High constantly changes I have seen many times that high stretch across Florida and pulls northward in TX, and LA area, so "I think" that FL, which a lot of us have been saying, is in danger but "I also believe" TX, LA is in just as much danger as FL is. note all of Gulf Coast and east Coast should be in a lookout.
*Everyone in Hurricane Prone area, also including Kentucky Arkansa, Tennessee, West Virginia and other inland states need to PREPARE!

[hurricanetrack]

That's why Tubby left Kentucky- he knew that there was a threat from hurricanes in 2007.

[kba981]

I think I am going to move to Canada.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well if you want to be 100% safe make sure you move to the Prairie, or West Coast Provinces. We've had some bad hurricanes here on occasion; Juan 2003 (Nova Scotia), Carol & Edna 1954, Gerda 1969 (New Brunswick), and most recently the Hybridstorm of November 2001 gave us hurricane force winds in all of Atlantic Canada, land locked Ontario even had Hazel back in 1954, granted that was a VERY rare anomaly. Also with GW, who knows what the future may hold.

[meteorologyman]

Speaking of Prepare I have noticed something about my town that you guys should look into in your towns as far as population

City of Saint Cloud Florida Population

2000- 20,074

2005- 24,700

2006- 28,000

2007- apprx.30,000

Now this is saint cloud, what about Orlando or any city north of us or along the coast

because of increase in population, instead of leaving 48hrs before landfall now we have to leave 54 hours before landfall that's a big problem since storms tend to turn a lot, but if people wait too long they'll end up riding in the storm in a traffic Jam, so it's important to check out population to see if you have time to wait a bit longer to see what storm does or if you have to leave hours before warnigs goes up

[meteorologyman]

I think I am going to move to Canada.

You can do that but beware taxes is 10 times worse up there then it is down here

[HouTXmetro]

How long does La Nina usually last?

[meteorologyman]

How long does La Nina usually last?

It all depend how the weather plays it could last a couple of months or up to 5 years. though i think it averages 1 to 2 years

[HouTXmetro]

any indication this will through the duration of hurricane season?

[meteorologyman]

any indication this will through the duration of hurricane season?

I have a strong feeling this La Nina will still exist in 2008, Jim Hughes can probably answer that question since he was the first and literaly the 1st person to predict La nina months in advanced