Tropical Cyclone Becky (21P) Fiji: Final Warning Issued

[HURAKAN]

25/2033 UTC 12.5S 160.8E T2.0/2.0 93P

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
158.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251220Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CON-
VECTION BANDING DEVELOPING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [997] HPA CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 161.0E AT
252100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST 10KT UNDER NW STEERING FIELD.
OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. SHEAR MINIMAL OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS TO EAST. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/0801 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [997 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
162.8E AT 260600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 2 KNOTS.

LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS PLACED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANINSED SINCE THE
LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION HAS SUPRESSED IN THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE LAST HOUR. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT2.5. MET AND PAT
AGREE, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6HRS. THE DEPRESSION LIES SOUTH OF UPPER
[250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONTMENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANT. SST AROUND 28C.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAS CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AND AGREES ON A SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH MODERATE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM. THE
NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 261400 UTC.



26/0833 UTC 13.2S 162.4E T3.0/3.0 93P -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Looks like we have a new cyclone just based on the satellite images.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

JTWC where are you? 3.0 wow.

[HURAKAN]

The new kid in the block.

[Chacor]

WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 163.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 163.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.2S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.2S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 163.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 260704Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. A 260703Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONCENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 21P IS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP IT ON A EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
ENHANCING OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES OF THE
SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. IN THE
LATER TAUS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA COULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//

WTPS11 NFFN 261200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/1403 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [996 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
162.6E AT 261200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 08 KNOTS. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN
120 MILES IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING GRADUALLY. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS STILL
GETTING ORGANISED IN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SHEAR, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND DIURNAL VARIATION INFLUENCING THIS AND OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.6 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A NON-REPRESENTATIVE DT3.0. FT BASED ON MET AND
PAT WHICH AGREE ON 2.5, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH
OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONTMENT. SHEAR
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MINIMAL TO SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW IMPROVING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. SST AROUND 28C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD13F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
262000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[marq=up][/marq]
[marq=down][/marq]

Becoming much better organized.

Next name: [font=Georgia][marq=up]BECKY[/marq][/font]

[P.K.]

RSMC Nadi have just released a naming bulletin saying this is now TC Becky.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/1903 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4 SOUTH
163.3 EAST AT 261800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 163.3E AT 261800 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 140 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.3S 165.4E AT 270600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.4S 167.1E AT 271800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 025.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/1958 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4 SOUTH
163.3 EAST AT 261800 UTC. POSITION POOR. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 140 MILES
IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.


OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING WITH COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.8+
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET =
3.0, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA]
RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONTMENT. BECKY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. RESULTANT SHEAR
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MINIMAL TO SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW IMPROVING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. SST AROUND 28C. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH MODERATE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC NEAR 14.3S 165.4E MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
10 KNOTS WITH 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 167.2E MOVING SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS WITH 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC NEAR 16.7S 168.4E MOVING SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS WITH 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC NEAR 18.0S 168.9E MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS
WITH 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
270200 UTC.

[web]http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65643.gif?1174936961999[/web]

[HURAKAN]

26/2033 UTC 13.6S 164.2E T3.5/3.5 BECKY -- South Pacific Ocean

Continues to intensify.

[HURAKAN]

STORM WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/2215 UTC 2007 UTC.

**AMENDED FOR INTENSITY AND LATEST POSITION**
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5 SOUTH
164.1 EAST AT 262100 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.5S 164.1E AT 262100 UTC.

CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 140 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.3S 165.4E AT 270600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.4S 167.1E AT 271800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 026.

[Chacor]

Vanuatu Special Advisory:

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND ON ITS PROJECTED
TRACK THE BECKY IS EXPECTED MOVE OVER VANUATU. IF THIS HAPPENS THE
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE DAMAGING STORM FORCE WINDS OVER TORRES AND BANKS
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR HOURS. DAMAGING GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED OVER ESPIRITU SANTO, MALEKULA, AOBA, MAEWO, PENTECOST,
AMBRYM IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS EXPECTED. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY
NORTHWEST SWELLS.

[HurricaneBill]

Ouch, and they just had an earthquake there too!

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 270600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 27/0757 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH
165.6 EAST AT 270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 to 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 80 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
120 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.

ORGANISATION INCREASING DESPITE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED SANTO
TERRAIN. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM MINIMAL AND FROM CIMSS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO SOUTH,
ALONG PROJECTED TRACK. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON
CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.9 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.5.
PAT AND MET AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST STEERING BECKY TO
SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 271800 UTC NEAR 16.5S 167.2E MOV SE 12KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 280600 UTC NEAR 18.3S 168.2E MOV SE 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 281800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 168.8E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 290600 UTC NEAR 20.8S 168.6E MOV SSE 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
271400 UTC.

55kt, 980hPa now.

[Chacor]

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK BECKY IS EXPECTED PASS DIRECTLY OVER OR CLOSE
TO THE VANUATU CHAIN OF ISLANDS. IF SO, THE SYSTEM MAY CAUSE
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN SANTO AND
EFATE AND DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE GROUP IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.
HIGH SEAS TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

[HURAKAN]

Ouch, and they just had an earthquake there too!

Nature is smart. The rain is the fill with sediments and other material any possible openings in the ground left behind by the earthquake!!!

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 271200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 27/1340 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH
166.3 EAST AT 271200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 80 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
120 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.

ORGANISATION INCREASING DESPITE INTERACTION WITH THE SANTO TERRAIN.
COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM
MINIMAL AND FROM CIMSS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO SOUTH, ALONG PROJECTED
TRACK. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH 0.9 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT4.0. PAT AND MET
AGREE, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA]
RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST STEERING BECKY TO SOUTHEAST AND
LATER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AGREE ON A
GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 280000 UTC NEAR 18.1S 167.6E MOV SSE 12KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 281200 UTC NEAR 19.9S 168.5E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 290000 UTC NEAR 21.3S 168.8E MOV S 07KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 291200 UTC NEAR 22.2S 168.9E MOV S 05KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
272000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Comic Sans MS]
NRL: 65 KNOTS.
PASSING NEAR VANUATU ISLANDS.
NEW CALEDONIA IS NEXT.[/font]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 27/1958 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BECKY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1 SOUTH
166.8 EAST AT 271800 UTC. POSITION POOR. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANISED. COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND LLCC. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM MINIMAL AND FROM CIMSS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO SOUTH, ALONG PROJECTED TRACK. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG YIELD DATA T 0F
4.5. PAT AND MET IS 4.0. FINAL T BASED ON PAT, THUS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST STEERING BECKY TO SOUTHEAST AND LATER SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AGREE ON A GRADUAL
SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 280600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 167.9E MOV SSE 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 281800 UTC NEAR 20.6S 168.5E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 290600 UTC NEAR 21.6S 168.6E MOV SSE 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 291800 UTC NEAR 22.2S 168.1E MOV S 06KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BECKY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
280200 UTC.