SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[KatDaddy]

Hey EWG the rains are coming. Looks like to heavy rain events for SE TX before we get a nice Spring weekend with cooler temps and sun.

[Yankeegirl]

It has gotten sunny here on the west side and the winds have picked up... hopefully the rain will hold off till later, we have baseball practice tonight!!!

[Yankeegirl]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
334 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW IN COMBINATION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEVELS MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS...MAY DEVELOP.

.DAY TWO...TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.DAYS THREE AND FOUR...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY FIVE...FRIDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS...MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS SIX AND SEVEN...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

[JenBayles]

Check out the current satellite loop. I know I don't qualify as even an educated amateur (poseur?!) but that mess in the Hill Country looks to be getting messier by the hour. Will it hold up under the power of the Dome later tonite?

[Yankeegirl]

I think it might due to the sun coming out here.... ? ya think??

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it might due to the sun coming out here.... ? ya think??

I am beginning to think it might. With the sun out, we may pack in enough instability for storms to really explode later this evening. The winds picking up is never a good sign either. Seems like *most* of the severe events I can remember throughout my life have been preceeded by "breezy" days. I guess we will see what happens this time though.

Also..Even if this event turns out being no big deal for us, we still have Friday to watch. If the trends remain steady, then Friday could feature a decent spring-time severe event for the region.

Lots to watch in the next 4-5 days!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest wind report from Hooks airport...

SE 20 G 24 MPH

And from IAH...

SE 20

[JenBayles]

Yeah, the wind is really knocking the snot out of the live oak blooms here under the Dome.... and right into the pool. Nuts.....

[Yankeegirl]

lol!!! Lets keep our fingers crossed we get some decent storms later... i am getting bored!

[Yankeegirl]

I dont like the storms building down there by Mexico.... Might be a problem for us later?

[Yankeegirl]

It is really dark out to the west of here....

[JenBayles]

It may be a daaaaaaark and stooooormy night... looking at the radar right now it would appear that we may get slammed. Notice our HGX boyz and girlz still have us at 60%. Maybe they've finally become aware of the Dome?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like this rain may also include a nice lightning show...

[web]http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=HGX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1[/web]

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, parts of our area are now under a "slight risk" of severe weather tonight from thr SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0100.gif

...SOUTH TX...
SRN BRANCH VORTEX OVER WEST TX WILL ACCELERATE AND DE-AMPLIFY WHILE
EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN STRONGLY DIFFLUENT ERN FLANK OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SWEPT ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL TX SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF HAIL EVENTS REPORTED. NRN PORTION OF
THE MCS HAS TAKEN ON LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING
COLD POOL AND PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THIS LAYER MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX PIVOTS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SPREADS NEWD OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MCS SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER... BRIEF TORNADO/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL COULD STILL
EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TX COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BAND OF 50KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MOVE ATOP
MOIST AIR MASS MAINTAINED BY MODEST SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

[JenBayles]

Hey EWG! I wondered if you were even around tonite. What do you think? Will the Dome win tonite or no?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey EWG! I wondered if you were even around tonite. What do you think? Will the Dome win tonite or no?

Hard question to answer since the dome ends up usually doing the opposite of what's expected of it. However, this time I would say the odds are in favor of it failing big time (based on the latest radar trends).

Might even start seeing some action within the next 1-2 hours!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though the storms moving in are not severe (as of now) they are still looking strong. This is from the NWS...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

TXZ197-210>212-270300-
WASHINGTON-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...
WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BROOKSHIRE
844 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO BELLVILLE TO HEMPSTEAD TO
WASHINGTON BETWEEN 845 AND 930 PM. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH AND ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the activity is looking a bit weaker right now. Should be interesting to see what happens, but I think the severe threat is looking very minimal as of now. Probably more of just a heavy rain event with a few embedded areas of "strong" activity (pea-sized hail, gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning) overnight. Friday's event looks much more interesting IMO.

00z GFS showing the strongest activity possibly arriving on Friday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[Yankeegirl]

I am just getting a light rain here... i saw one flash of lightning... woo hoo!!

[jasons2k]

Looks like the SW end of the line in intensifying some:



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In other news - we just brought Caleb home from the hospital!! He was in the NICU for over two months and he is just fine! I'll post more details tomorrow in the Off Topic forum.