Severe weather? Southern Plains - March 29/30 - MDT risk

#1 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:07 pm

Any thoughts on tomorrow? Will there be enough instability for a second round? That would be a total nightmare as the area affected would have a lot more people...

ncupsscweather · #2 Postby **ncupsscweather** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:07 am

I really don't think tomorrow will be anything like what it was today, but then again I don't think we really expected it to be as bad today as it was.

#3 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 6:45 am

Exactly. The SPC says it all by saying confidence is a big issue.

#4 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 8:20 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.

The potential scenarios I am seeing are as follows:

1) Squall line clears, dryline advances, thermal contrasts remain as is: That would setup a severe weather even across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, although not nearly as intense or explosive as yesterday. However, little development should take place north of about Wichita with such a scenario due to poor moisture return. Overall such would lead to some large hail, high winds and some tornadoes, perhaps an isolated strong one. Chance of such: 40%

2) Squall line does not clear: That would be the best-case scenario from the POV of emergency managers and civil defence authorities. The poor moisture return and lower daytime heating would keep all development to a minimum, with maybe isolated severe hail or wind. However, such would prevent any widespread severe weather and tornadoes would be unlikely at best. Chance of such: 35%

3) Squall line clears, dryline advances, thermal environment resets itself: The worst-case scenario (or best-case for chasers). This would set up a potential repeat of yesterday as the CAPE would be able to rise again. Such leaves the door open to widespread tornadoes and very large hail across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, with lesser activity in northern Kansas and Nebraska. Chance of such: 20%

4) Squall line clears, dryline retreats: This is also a low-activity scenario due to the fact the dryline will be over stable air, meaning the cold front - which won't be until late evening - will be the weathermaker for the most part. Least likely scenario IMO, which would set up another squall line event tonight from central Texas to northern Kansas. Chance of such: 5%.

snoopj · #5 Postby **snoopj** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 9:14 am

Yeah. Listened to my NOAA radio this morning and they don't have a lot of confidence that major instability will enter the region today. Too many factors to keep it low. Large hail and damaging winds being the threat of anything that does develop, was what they were saying.

--snoopj

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 9:58 am

#7 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:42 am

That clearing in Oklahoma is not a good sign...looks like the squall line is indeed clearing except down in Texas (where moisture is greatest)...the CAPEs are around 2000 according to the SPC at this point.

Weatherfreak14 · #8 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:42 am

that severe storm in palbo pinto county in tx has a very strong meso very organized i expect a tornado warning soon.

#9 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:49 am

Sounds like the SPC thinks Scenario 1 will happen. Three things need to happen for another explosive outbreak: squall line clearing for the daytime heating, dryline moving eastward for the trigger and thermal regenesis to allow the instability to return for the fuel.

Weatherfreak14 · #10 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 11:55 am

I wouldnt be suprised if a repeat of yesterday happened, but i hope today will be far less severe.

HarlequinBoy · #11 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:40 pm

I don't think today's severe weather will be as severe as yesterday's outbreak was. At least I hope not.

The SPC's latest Day 1 Outlook has a 5% hatch for tornadoes for parts of North Texas and east Oklahoma.

Hopefully any tornadoes that form today stay in very rural areas.

#12 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 4:24 pm

Tornado on the ground near Oklahoma City

http://www.koco.com/video/10731634/index.html

#13 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 4:25 pm

Reports of injuries on the Kilpatrick Turnpike. Cars flipped over by a tornado.

HarlequinBoy · #14 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 4:52 pm

4 SE PIEDMONT CANADIAN OK 3560 9769 SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO WITH POWER FLASHES. (OUN)

This area isn't in a watch either.

OKLAHOMA CITY -- A tornado producing 250 mph winds touched down in northwest Oklahoma City late Thursday afternoon. Damage has been reported, officials confirmed.

The twister had been reported in northwestern Oklahoma City. Witnesses said it touched down along or near the Kilpatrick Turnpike, and there have been reports of damage.

Also, Oklahoma Gas & Electric reported as of about 4:30 p.m. that roughly 12,000 customers were without power. Almost 2,000 of those people are in Piedmont, where the storm passed.

While there is no tornado on the ground as of 4:40 p.m., there is still a wall cloud associated with the storm near state Highway 33. The potential for another tornado does exist.

I know that must be a misprint or something?-link to article-

HarlequinBoy · #15 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 5:12 pm

EMSA reported that two people, who were inside a trailer home near Kilpatrick Turnpike and Wilshire Boulevard, were critically hurt.

#16 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 5:26 pm

250 mph? That would be an EF5 and it would be a repeat of May 3, 1999...

HarlequinBoy · #17 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 5:46 pm

Yeah, that would be really unusual. *shudders*

I'm thinking it has to be a false report. How could they know so soon after the storm what the wind speeds were? Don't they usually have to do extensive surveys.. especially to say a storm is that strong. Plus the area isn't even in a Moderate Risk area or anything. Granted, I didn't see the storm when it was severe and had a warning on it so I can't say for sure, but seeing as this is the local media I doubt it.

If it turns out true, I will eat my words though. lol

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 7:01 pm

yeah, this video shows damage that looks nothing like an EF5. 250mph is way too strong based on what I am seeing...

http://www.koco.com/video/11442655/index.html

#19 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 7:23 pm

Looks like about an EF2 to me.

Cyclenall · #20 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:250 mph? That would be an EF5 and it would be a repeat of May 3, 1999...

Even if that tornado was 250 mph, it would still not compare to the May 3rd, 1999 tornado which had winds of 318 mph...just shy of being the first F6.

I just heard on the news one tornado spotter saw a tornado that was as wide as 2 football fields! What's that in miles/meters?

Severe weather? Southern Plains - March 29/30 - MDT risk

Severe weather? Southern Plains - March 29/30 - MDT risk

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