NWP: Developed Low former TS Kong-rey

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Chacor
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NWP: Developed Low former TS Kong-rey

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:15 am

ABPW10 PGTW 301400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301400-310600ZMAR2007//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 158.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST ALONG 5N (JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK TO JUST SOUTH OF
POHNPEI). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 300912Z SSMIS PASS
REVEAL A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AT THE EASTERN END OF THIS
TROUGH. IN FACT, POHNPEI (PTTP) HAS REPORTED 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
AROUND THREE MILLIBARS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE; VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ASSESSED AS LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 1.B.(1) POOR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

That SSMIS pass in question:
Image
Image

Looking interesting.
Last edited by Chacor on Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:30 am, edited 17 times in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:20 am

And nothing yet from JMA.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 11:26 am

JTWC has begun satfixes with init obs at 1.0. Looks like we could get our first JTWC depression of the season (JMA already classified two earlier this year).
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#4 Postby James » Fri Mar 30, 2007 11:45 am

Well, it is getting to that time of year. Looks interesting at the moment.
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#5 Postby P.K. » Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:25 pm

Now a 1006hPa LPA.

WWJP25 RJTD 301800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 984 HPA
AT 41N 154E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 154E TO 42N 155E 42N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 156E TO 41N 160E 40N 165E 40N 168E 40N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 156E TO 38N 155E 36N 153E 33N 151E 31N 148E 30N
145E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 47N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 974 HPA
AT 58N 174E BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 46N 118E UPPER AMUR RIVER MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 130E 28N 140E
26N 148E 24N 141E 25N 133E 26N 127E 29N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 45N 144E ESE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 157E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 135E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 38N 137E EAST 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#6 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:32 pm

I've been watching it on NRL and it looks like it may be developing.
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#7 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:41 pm

Now up to 20kts, down to 1004mb per NRL. Coming together nicely
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#8 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:34 pm

JTWC reissued their ABPW/STWO at 23Z

ABPW10 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302300-310600ZMAR2007//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF CHUUK.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302002Z SSMI
IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF A DEV-
ELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 301937Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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#9 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:39 pm

00Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 157E WNW 10 KT.
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#10 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:12 pm

PK: where di you get your latest post from?
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#11 Postby Chacor » Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:19 pm

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#12 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:23 pm

thanks chacor.
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#13 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri Mar 30, 2007 11:05 pm

Damn I'm slow on the uptake. Checked the situation yesterday before this had popped up.

ECMWF are wanting to develop this on yesterday's 12z run. At the moment they show a TC forming, drifting north west then losing it's steering influence and dies around 20N 140E. Anyway that's all circumstantial at the moment - will be interesting to see what happens.

On a side note the average number of TCs to have formed by this date in the Wpac is 1.1.
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#14 Postby Coredesat » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:08 am

Not sure why, but there's a TCFA:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 7.2N 155.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 156.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST OF
CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE NEAR 156E, JUST WEST OF POHNPEI. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVA-
TIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW A DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF ALMOST
4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A 302153Z SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM TOWARD THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT
HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO ITS EAST (NEAR 179 E).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
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#15 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:36 am

Well JMA have already upgraded this to a TD.

Here's the latest analysis from JTWC in my inbox:

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SE OF GUAM

B. 31/0530Z

C. 7.4N/1

D. 155.8E/9

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/12HRS (31/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
FOR DT OF 1.5. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
FOR POSITION AND MOVED LLCC 54NM TO THE EAST.

VIAULT
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#16 Postby Chacor » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:55 am

Image
Image
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#17 Postby Chacor » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:11 am

The first name this season will be Kong-rey, contributed by Cambodia.
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#18 Postby Chacor » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:33 am

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 07.1N 156.6E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

No bulletins yet because it's not expected to become a TS within 24 hours yet from the JMA.
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#19 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 31, 2007 5:32 am

The 48 hour forecast chart doesn't show anything stronger than a TD either.
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 31, 2007 7:18 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

GUZ001>004-010800-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
600 PM LST SAT MAR 31 2007

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY OR TUESDAY FOR THE
MARIANA ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF POHNPEI IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANA ISLANDS...POSSIBLY BRINGING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

AT 4 PM LST...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS
ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI...875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
AND 885 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN21 PGTW.

IT IS TOO EARLY YET TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE
WILL GO AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL INTENSIFY...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES THE MARIANAS.

REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLANS NOW AND PREPARE TO TAKE NEEDED
STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.
STAY INFORMED ON THIS EARLY SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT BY
MONITORING THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

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