New low pressure in 120+ hours GFS.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... here is an interesting scenario. It probably won't end up being anything tropical in nature. I just noticed it today when I ran the 12Z GFS from NCEP... Even though though GFS has created phantom storms in the past. it could make for a decent weather event in the Florida/SE US area. GFS develops an area of low pressure in the GULF and at the 174 Hour mark, shows it as a 1010mb low with plenty of precipitation. After that a shortwave creates a cold front and scoops this area up. I haven't noticed much from the other models yet, or even if it will be in the 18Z run or not. Just though I would let you guys know, I sure could use the rain.



[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_174m.gif[/web]
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_192m.gif[/web]
[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p24_204m.gif[/web]

[JonathanBelles]

As long as its rain for florida I like it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope it becomes a big rain event for Florida because I love the rain and we need to get out of this dry spell. I just hope it doesn't take a hurricane do undo the spell.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope it rains like crazy!!!! My fountain which had 2 feet of water in the basin back in November now has barely an inch!!!! YES!!! Thank you GFS please verify and bring us very good rain!!!!!!! YEEEE HAAWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Scorpion]

I don't know about you guys.. but I like it dry. Rain ruins the day.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think we are going to phase 2 in water restrictions. Whatever that means. We need rain bad! The latest from the NWS doesn't look to promising:
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[boca]

The offense but a low hasn't developed this year in the Gulf and moved east. Let the phantom storms begin. I wish we would get rain more than most people but its not happening.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... maybe some good news. GFS precip. forecast for the 6-10 day period shows Florida in above normal.

[web]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif[/web]

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok well... the last one didn't work out, but here we go again. GFS is once again developing, this time a cold core system, after the Major East Coast storm pulls out. This new cold core system is looking to track along the Northern Gulf. It should produce widespread rain and instability for us next week.




[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_132m.gif[/web]

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07041306/127.track.current.png[/web]

[boca]

Miami NWS is the only one out of the surrounding offices picking up on this which is surprising in of itself. I guess Tampa and Melbourne are downplaying the event until more runs come in.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD
FLORIDA TUESDAY BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS
A SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW ON MONDAY MOVING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF LATE MONDAY MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAYBE RIGHT WHERE ITS
MOST NEEDED. DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[AJC3]

Ok well... the last one didn't work out, but here we go again. GFS is once again developing, this time a cold core system, after the Major East Coast storm pulls out. This new cold core system is looking to track along the Northern Gulf. It should produce widespread rain and instability for us next week.

The GFS has been going back and forth on this system. Early this week, It "liked" it in the day 7-9 progs (intensifying it from the L1000s to the upper 990s as it crossed FL) but then yesterday showed a considerably weaker system in the day 6 time frame, owing to it's depiction of a more progressive, less "diggy" H50 trough. We noted this morning in our daily wx briefing that it had returned to a much stronger system now that it has moved up to day 5.

We've certainly gotten into a much more moist, energetic patten the last several days, and that looks like some decent rain events coming up from this weekend onward. We could sure use the rain, but we're hoping the severe potential late SAT/early SUN doesn't become fully realized.

[boca]

AJC3 what's your take on Wednesday's system will it be stronger than Sunday's system.

[AJC3]

AJC3 what's your take on Wednesday's system will it be stronger than Sunday's system.

We're talking about a day 5-6 system where there is much poorer agreement amongst the global models, so there's greater than the usual amount of uncertainty here...but for now here goes...

If you're talking about the central SLP, it's unlikely that the WED system will be stronger since the upper level system with this weekend's storm will be much stronger and will capture the surface low directly beneath it, causing at the very least rapid intensification, if not a true east coast bomb.

If you're talking about having more significant severe wx impact on Florida, that too looks like it will probably be better with the weekend storm. Wind fields and deep layer moisture look stronger this weekend.

my $0.02

BTW...we've been talking about the second system since our WED afternoon AFD...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=8&max=10

SAT NIGHT/SUN-WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CUTOFF AS IT MOVES FROM THE TN VLY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. POWERFUL UPR DYNAMICS PROGGED
TO INDUCE STRONG UVM ACROSS MUCH OF FL...SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY
STRONG/SVR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION (LKLY IN THE FORM OF A SQLN)
DURING THE FAVORED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD OF SAT INTO SUN
CAVEAT HERE IS THIS IS IN THE 3.5 TO 4 DAY TIME FRAME AND THINGS
CAN CHG BTWN NOW AND THEN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY OF THIS SOLN THUS FAR...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN HWO. MUCH DRIER AND A SOLID 10F COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
SUN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE DRY AIR HOLDING FAST THRU TUE AS
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO CLIMO NORMS. ANOTHER POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH
INDUCES STRONG LOW LATITUDE GOMEX SFC CYCLOGEN TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS FL AS ITS CTRL PRES
DROPS TO NR OR SLGTLY BLO 1000MB. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THE ECM/
GFS TREND IN HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE (STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING ETC.)
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR STARTERS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC
SHRA/TSRA FOR WED/WED NIGHT.


edit: The 13/12Z GFS has trended weaker/more progressive once again.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks AJC3... I'll have to read your discussions more often. I'm in the tampa area and your right across the way then.