Mozambique Channel: ex-TC Jaya (ex-TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

Looking better organized.

[Chacor]

Definitely getting its act back together, but it's about to hit Antalaha...

JTWC 1130Z fix:

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (02/1130Z)

[P.K.]

Back up to an Intense Tropical Cyclone in the latest update just released.

[HURAKAN]

825
WTIO30 FMEE 021809

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/14/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 52.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 15.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.7S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 16.2S/44.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 16.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5- ; CI=5.5
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND "JAYA" CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL NEAR "JAYA", THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE
MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
"JAYA" KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
ANTALAHA
TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN OVER
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA, FOR THE
NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF "JAYA" MAY TRACK OVER WATER AGAIN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD
BE
POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Little cyclone, big power!!!

[HURAKAN]

811
WTIO30 FMEE 030012

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 51.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 15.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 15.6S/46.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 16.0S/44.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 16.7S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 17.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- ; CI=5.5-
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED
AND THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ERODED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR (CF. NOAA18
2159Z) DUE TO A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; "JAYA" CURRENTLY SHOWS A
SLIGHT WEAKEN
ING TENDENCY.
"JAYA" KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
FORSEEN OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA,
DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE REMNANTS OF "JAYA" MAY TRACK OVER WATER AGAIN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE
POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Looking in bad shape.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Jaya is getting close to landfall either that or it already has. It appears to be dying quickly, good news for Madagascar.

[Chacor]

704
WTIO30 FMEE 030637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 50.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.2S/48.2E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 14.5S/45.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 14.6S/43.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 15.4S/41.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 16.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/04/06 06 UTC: 17.5S/40.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 ; CI=5.0-
LINKED TO A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CF TRMM AT 0007UTC), "JAYA
" HAS CLEARLY DISORGANIZED.
UNDERGOING A MID-LEVEL HIGHS CELL ON THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL (CF LEVEL
500HPA), "JAYA" HAS RECURVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.
THE WEAKENING IS RATHER QUICK AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
AT ABOUT 0900UTC IN THE VICINITY OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) AT THE MINIMAL
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND
FANAMBANA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
"JAYA" SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WITHIN THE
NEXT NIGHT SOUTH OF NOSY-BE.
IN A FIRST TIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE POOR BUT
IT SHOULD UNDERGOING BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 48 HOURS IN
THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.

It's forecast to regain STS strength as it heads SSW in the Mozambique Channel. The forecast map shows that it will just about scrape the coast of Mozambique, but not make landfall within the forecast period.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 031208

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 49.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 080 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 14.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 14.8S/44.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 15.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 15.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 16.9S/40.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/04/06 12 UTC: 18.1S/40.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"JAYA" HAS MADE ITS LANDFALL ABOUT 25 KM SOUTH OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) FEW
AFTER 0800UTC AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
DESPITE METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ,
MICROWAVE SSMIS F16 AT 0409UTC SHOWS A 50 KM DIAMETER WELL DEFINED
EYEWALL AROUND A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PROBABLY REACHED 180 TO 200 KM/H ON ITS FRONT AND IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DOWN TO ANTALAHA. IN THE NORTHERN ONE, WESTERLIES
(COMING FROM LAND) HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN LESS.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS TO COME BACK OVER SEA NEXT
NIGHT BEFORE 0000UTC SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH OF NOSY-BE.
OVERLAND AND CROSSING HIGH MOUNTAINS (MORE THAN 2000M FOR THE HIGHER),
"JAYA" WILL QUICKLY DISORGANIZED AND COMING OVER SEA AT A WEAK STAGE.
WINDS WOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONCERN ALL THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MALAGASY (NORTH OF 20S).
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK IN A FIRST TIME OVER THE
MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Arial Black]Cyclone Indlala:[/font]


[font=Arial Black]Cyclone Jaya:[/font]


Just two weeks apart.

[HURAKAN]

The last minute jump to the NW allowed the storm to cross through a smaller section of Madagascar.

[HurricaneBill]

Rather surprising that it retained a well defined eyewall despite its appearance.

[Hurricane Freak PR]

This is not all that uncommon, many TC's (specially the strong ones) when are getting sheared out look quite messy on satellite images but that mid-low levels structure is still quite intact and winds could remain very strong. That gives the appearance that the winds may be a lot weaker just by looking at the satellite image, but that is'nt the case. Hugo when it hit Puerto Rico was looking less organized than when it hit St. Croix due to land interaction and shear but the intensity of the wind was very similar in both St. Croix and NE Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques, this was confirmed with the damage surveys that were conducted after the storm. That's because even the storm was looking less organized as it moved over Puerto Rico and was ready to start a major weakening trend (showed by pressure rise in the eye as it approached PR), the eyewall still came almost intact over those places and the result was extremely heavy damage. The case of Hugo is probably not as dramatic as this one but shows what happens in these types of scenario. Also Michelle when it passed over the Bahamas had lost basically all of its deep convection near the center and still Nassau got quite an impressive blast by the storm...

Jose

[P.K.]

Landfall was on 3/4/2007 not 4/4/2007 unless this system can time travel.

[HurricaneBill]

Landfall was on 3/4/2007 not 4/4/2007 unless this system can time travel.

Maybe it had sustained winds of 88 mph.

[RattleMan]

Landfall was on 3/4/2007 not 4/4/2007 unless this system can time travel.

Maybe it had sustained winds of 88 mph.

Or maybe it was traveling nowhere at -99mph, allowing it to jump time?

[HURAKAN]

The remnants of Jaya are trying to make a comeback.

[Chacor]

Not a lot of time before landfall.

[HURAKAN]