SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week
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JenBayles
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EWG - this morning's activity was mentioned in the short term forecast very early this morning, so I don't think it was false echoes. Sorry, I didn't think to copy the text - in too much of a hurry trying to get to church to set up handbells before services. By the time I got back home around 12:15, everything had dissipated. So now we turn our attention to Tuesday night I suppose?
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southerngale
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matigre
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[font=Century Gothic] [/font]Jen-- hope the handbells went ringing through the clouds-- 
any idea about the precip forecast for April? I'm remembering some hefty amounts here in Beaumont for Aprils past-- I want to finish my garden! And have you ever seen a more beautiful spring in SE Texas than this? Sun on azaleas because there are no trees? And I loved the "nowcast" new weather terminogogy....
any idea about the precip forecast for April? I'm remembering some hefty amounts here in Beaumont for Aprils past-- I want to finish my garden! And have you ever seen a more beautiful spring in SE Texas than this? Sun on azaleas because there are no trees? And I loved the "nowcast" new weather terminogogy....
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SE TX is being mentioned in this mornings Day 1 Outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CaptinCrunch
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It has been awile since I have posted so I hope all my weather friends have been safe and well!! It was quite a wet friday at the house, I recorded almost 3.5 inches just friday evening alone from the training of storms. We had some small hail about pea size and allot of high wind which caused the power to go out twice friday evening. as of this monday morning the back yard still has a inche or 2 of standing water covering about hafe the yard.
Man, the yard will be a monster to mow by this up coming weekend, if it can dry out enough to mow??
It has been so far a slow start to the spring storm season, and I'm hopping for a better season than last, but only time will tell as we move back to a ENSO neutrual state and a weakend El Nino that will have little impact on our spring weather.
Man, the yard will be a monster to mow by this up coming weekend, if it can dry out enough to mow??
It has been so far a slow start to the spring storm season, and I'm hopping for a better season than last, but only time will tell as we move back to a ENSO neutrual state and a weakend El Nino that will have little impact on our spring weather.
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Yankeegirl
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Yankeegirl
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Extremeweatherguy
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The latest NWS looks quite chilly for this upcoming April weekend...
Hard to believe we will struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday and that lows could possibly reach the lower 40s on Sunday morning.
Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east.
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 70. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 66.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 44.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.
Hard to believe we will struggle to get out of the 50s on Saturday and that lows could possibly reach the lower 40s on Sunday morning.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff:
Big differences between CRP and LCH this morning…where Houston lies will be the deciding factor for this afternoon and evening.
Mornings soundings are very unstable with CAPE values of 2500 already at LCH. Air mass at CRP is very capped requiring a surface temp in the low 90’s to break while LCH has a trigger temp of near 80. So where does SE TX lie between the two differences. Aircraft profiles from IAH suggest the air mass over the region is closer to the LCH sounding suggesting with surface heating parcels may be able to breach the capping inversion. Forecast instability parameters by early afternoon suggest extreme instability will be in place with CAPES of 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Once released through the capped layer this energy will “explode” into rapid storm development. Any storms that are able to form and break the cap will go quickly severe with large hail being the main threat. Could get some pretty nasty hailers given the amount on instability available however the threat remains conditional on the capping layer being broken.
Tonight:
Frontal boundary over N TX will move southward with numerous severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon over N TX. After dark air mass cap will begin to intensify with loss of daytime heating and storms should gradually weaken. However, severe threat may extend southward toward I-10 overnight before storm weaken and dissipate.
Big differences between CRP and LCH this morning…where Houston lies will be the deciding factor for this afternoon and evening.
Mornings soundings are very unstable with CAPE values of 2500 already at LCH. Air mass at CRP is very capped requiring a surface temp in the low 90’s to break while LCH has a trigger temp of near 80. So where does SE TX lie between the two differences. Aircraft profiles from IAH suggest the air mass over the region is closer to the LCH sounding suggesting with surface heating parcels may be able to breach the capping inversion. Forecast instability parameters by early afternoon suggest extreme instability will be in place with CAPES of 3000-5000 J/kg across the region. Once released through the capped layer this energy will “explode” into rapid storm development. Any storms that are able to form and break the cap will go quickly severe with large hail being the main threat. Could get some pretty nasty hailers given the amount on instability available however the threat remains conditional on the capping layer being broken.
Tonight:
Frontal boundary over N TX will move southward with numerous severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon over N TX. After dark air mass cap will begin to intensify with loss of daytime heating and storms should gradually weaken. However, severe threat may extend southward toward I-10 overnight before storm weaken and dissipate.
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Stratosphere747
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Excellent disco by Jeff, along with the latest from the Houston NWS... This is a classic situation where some may come back and say "we only had a 20% chance of rain, what a bust".
Thunder boomers could come fast and furious without much warning, especially in the northern areas of SE Texas, or nothing could happen.
Thunder boomers could come fast and furious without much warning, especially in the northern areas of SE Texas, or nothing could happen.
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jasons2k
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Johnny wrote:I read both of Jeff's updates this morning and all I can say is...YUCK! I'm not looking forward to a wet and chilly period, that's for sure. I'm ready for some steady mid 90 degree temps. with some late afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms. Come on summer time!!!!
Hey Johnny - I'm with you 100%!!
My parents are coming down this weekend and I was looking forward to smoking some ribs or something. Cloudy, dreary, 60's is NOT fun "Easter weather" or conducive for smoking meat...
Also I was cleaning the pool last weekend, getting it ready for summer, the water was all nice & clear and the heat & humidity made the pool look awfully tempting. I can't wait much longer - as you said - come on summer time!!!
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This will be a day to watch the VIS satellites for any rapid developing TCUs.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Yankeegirl
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