2007 Gray Forecast (The Media Frenzy)

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PerfectStorm
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2007 Gray Forecast (The Media Frenzy)

#1 Postby PerfectStorm » Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:39 am

http://uk.reuters.com/article/scienceNe ... 7420070403

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES>>> :lol:

Forecasters predict 9 Atlantic hurricanes this year
Tue Apr 3, 2007 3:47PM BST

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[-] Text [+] By Jim Loney

MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be far more active than usual with 17 tropical storms, of which nine will grow into hurricanes, a noted U.S. forecasting team founded by William Gray said on Tuesday.

If the prediction proves true, the June 1-November 30 hurricane season could mark a return to the destructive seasons of 2004, when four strong hurricanes hit Florida, and 2005, the year of Katrina, after a mild 2006 season when only 10 storms formed.

The 2004 and 2005 seasons rattled oil and insurance markets as hurricanes rampaged through the oil and gas fields of the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest storm in U.S. history with more than $80 billion in damage in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast.

The 2005 season was a record-breaker with 28 storms and 15 hurricanes.

In its updated outlook for the 2007 season, the Colorado State University team led by hurricane forecast pioneer Gray and Philip Klotzbach raised the number of expected storms and hurricanes from the 14 and seven, respectively, that it had predicted in December.

The forecasters said the disappearance of the El Nino warm-water phenomenon in the eastern Pacific, which dampened Atlantic hurricane activity last year, and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures lay behind their upgraded forecast.

"We've seen El Nino conditions dissipate quite rapidly late this winter so we do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year," Klotzbach said in a statement. "Also, we have warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year which we've seen just about every year since 1995." Continued...
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 03, 2007 11:24 am

Yahoo News Site


Above is how Yahoo has the news from Colorado State University.Is this a media blitz or what?

MSNBC

:uarrow: MSNBC
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 03, 2007 11:45 am

Fox News

Above is Fox News.
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#4 Postby CourierPR » Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:28 pm

I find it interesting that some of our local TV stations are trying to downplay Dr. Gray's forecast. Yet, when the first storm has even a small chance of impacting our area, they will be hyping it for all it's worth.
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#5 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:36 pm

Jeff Masters is trashing the Gray/Klotzbach report in his blog today. He says they have no skill in predicting the hurricane season in april. In fact, he says they have NEGATIVE skill from 1995-2006. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200704
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#6 Postby Andy_L » Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:36 pm

thats just lovely....has the price of gas shot up yet?? already over $4.00 CDN a gallon here ($1.03 per litre this morning)
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#7 Postby wjs3 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:29 pm

The write up points out (and Masters notes too) that Klotzbach/Gray are including new variables/predictors to try to improve the skill of April forecasts.

Does anyone know if they took a look at the impact of these new predictors? In other words, did they take a look at what their forecast would have been under the old scheme and see how much the new scheme changed their estimates? I imagine it must have been significant (and I use significant in the pure statistical sense of the word) or they would not have made the changes.

WJS3
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#8 Postby Downdraft » Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:40 pm

While it may be hype to some personally I don't knock anything that increases hurricane awareness to the general public. If it makes people think about it then hype it all you want!
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#9 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:52 pm

Hyping this season could save lives by making people more alert to danger from hurricanes in the event of a hurricane.
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#10 Postby T'Bonz » Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:26 pm

I think people down here ARE alert, after 2004-5. Last year, when Ernesto threatened us (I think it was Ernesto), this place went nuts. Long lines at the stations, etc.
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#11 Postby Downdraft » Tue Apr 03, 2007 3:58 pm

T'Bonz wrote:I think people down here ARE alert, after 2004-5. Last year, when Ernesto threatened us (I think it was Ernesto), this place went nuts. Long lines at the stations, etc.


Perhaps in your area they are but 5000+ people move to Florida every year! And, since over 70% of Florida's population lives along the coastline I say keep up the hype! I'm NOT for hyping storms that have no chance of threatening the area as has been known to happen but when it comes to preparedness bring it on.
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 03, 2007 6:20 pm

Here in Puerto Rico,all the three TV stations in their evening news weather section talked about the Colorado State University's April outlook.I think it's good that this news is everywhere in the U.S. Mainland and overseas because it helps the population to be aware that the upcomming season will be active and they should be prepared for anything that the season may bring.
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#13 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Apr 03, 2007 8:13 pm

Well, every news station is excited here. That's for sure......and that's a good thing. We need more education for the stream of new residents who don't listen unless you club them over the head like a baby seal. :eek:
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#14 Postby Cookiely » Tue Apr 03, 2007 9:28 pm

Our local TV station added at the bottom of the list that there was a 74% chance of an east coast storm this season. Was that part of the prediction? Also, even though the numbers are high doesn't mean they will hit land. Maybe we will be very lucky and they will all be fish. I wonder if Nationwide Insurance had a heads up on the prediction since they got approval for a huge increase in home owners insurance.
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#15 Postby MSRobi911 » Wed Apr 04, 2007 2:31 am

Hopefully this season will turn out a burst same as last year......I vote for lots of fishes!!!!

Mary
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#16 Postby Orlando_wx » Wed Apr 04, 2007 8:39 am

Hey i agree about the hype only problem is a lot of people are not taking it that way they all saying i'll believe it when I see which is not the right answer

John
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#17 Postby cajungal » Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:22 am

Last night our local New Orleans meterologist showed the mid to upper east coast at the lowest risk of landfall this year at only 30%. Texas at a 40%. And Louisiana to Alabama Coast at like 75% But, he said not to be alarmed at those numbers, it does not neccesarily mean that we are going to get hit. But, I am sure it made a lot of people nervous anyway. And he went on the mention that last year was not as active because the massive amount of shear tore up the storms. He said the shear will not be a factor this year.
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#18 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Apr 04, 2007 10:19 am

My only concern with the hyping is if someone goes on the tube or radio and starts saying "we are going to get hit because we are in the high risk area". Hopefully everyone in the media is smarter than to do something like that. Past that, I agree with anything that is not alarmist that will raise awareness.
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#19 Postby Steve H. » Fri Apr 06, 2007 10:26 pm

Ahem, I wouldn't take too much stock in what Mr. Masters has to say. What is his predictive skill? Being the critic is easy. My money is with Gray :roll:
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#20 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:52 am

CourierPR wrote:I find it interesting that some of our local TV stations are trying to downplay Dr. Gray's forecast. Yet, when the first storm has even a small chance of impacting our area, they will be hyping it for all it's worth.


Bit that's what local media do :D
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