SPac: Extratropical: ex-Cliff 23P

[Chacor]

WTPS21 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040321Z APR 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 179.0E TO 20.5S 179.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 179.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
179.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 032218Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
AS WELL AS A WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED
ON THE RAPID CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050330Z.//

[hr]
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 04/0026 UTC 2007 UTC.

** Correction to position**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1000 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 179.8E AT
032300 UTC. SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. SYSTEM
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LLCC APPEARS TO CATCH
UP WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS SHEARED IN THE WESTERLIES AS STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
EXIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM. MAJOR CONVECTIVE CLOUD
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF INTERPOLATED LLCC. DVORAK BASED CURVED BAND
YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AGREE THEREFOR T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE AXIS AND IN A STRONG
WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AND AGREES ON SOUTHEAST
TRACK BUT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Chacor]

Right over Fiji:

[Chacor]

WTPS01 NFFN 040300 CCA
GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 04/0416 UTC 2007 UTC.

*CORRECTION ON LONGITUDE*
TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH
179.6 WEST AT 040300 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.8S 179.6W AT 040300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.3S 179.3W AT 041500 UTC
AND NEAR 19.9S 178.4W AT 050300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 001.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 040300
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/0455 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH
179.6 WEST AT 040300 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME IRGANISED WITH CLOUID BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT 3.0. PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW ALONG THE CVA REGION. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY UNDER LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SHEAR WHEN IT MOVES SOUTH. MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH INCREASING MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 041500 UTC NEAR 18.3S 179.3W MOV SSE 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 050300 UTC NEAR 19.9S 178.4W MOV SSE 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 051500 UTC NEAR 22.2S 177.4W MOV SSE 13KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 060300 UTC NEAR 26.1S 174.2W MOV SE 18KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CLIFF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040800 UTC.
[hr]
417
WWFJ40 NFFN 040300

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
CLIFF
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:51pm on Wednesday the 4th of April 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NAITAUBA,
YACATA, KANACEA, VANUA BALAVU AND VATU VARA.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FOR FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU,
SOUTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16 DECIMAL 8
SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 40 KILOMETRES EAST OF TAVEUNI OR
ABOUT 85 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF UDU POINT OR 110 KILOMETRES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CICIA AT 3P.M. TODAY.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP
TO 75 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 14
KM/HR AND THE CENTRE.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE
CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR EASTERN VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, VANUA
BALAVU AND VATU VARA: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS 50 KM/HR WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF UPTO 100 KM/HR.

FLOODING, INCLUDING RAPID SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP AND THE REST OF VANUA LEVU: EXPECT WINDS
INCREASING TO 65 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HEAVY RAIN WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP FRESH AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FINE APART FROM AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS OVER NORTHERN
VANUA LEVU & NORTHERN LAU WATERS AND KORO SEA. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LAU WATERS TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ELSEWHERE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
7.00PM TODAY.

[HurricaneBill]

I saw this invest earlier today and noticed it looked quite healthy.

Good thing a cyclone isn't near the Solomon Islands. That would make the situation there worse.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 23S HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A 040507Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. TC 23S WILL
TRACK TO THE WEST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMA-
TALOGICAL RATE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 23S. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE LIMITED AVAILABLE AIDS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040321Z APR 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 040330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND
050900Z.//

[HURAKAN]

04/0833 UTC 17.6S 179.2W T3.0/3.0 CLIFF -- South Pacific Ocean



A little stronger.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say 40 knots. Looks a little sheared.

[Chacor]

CPHC fix:

591
TXPS40 PHFO 041200
TCSSP

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1155 UTC WED APR 04 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 179.3W AT 04/1038 UTC
BASED ON GOES AND MTSAT 4-KM IR SECTORS AND ANIMATION. POSITION
ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 45
KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS 140 DEGREES AT 13 KT OVER THE PAST
12 HRS.

T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

REMARKS...LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THE OVERCAST WITH GOOD
AMOUNT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE 0438Z POSITION WAS TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THE
0803Z 91HZ SSMIS PASS SHOWS AN EYE SIGNATURE...BUT IT IS PROBABLY IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LLCC POSITION
IS UNDER DG...YIELDING A DT OF 3.5 USING A SHEAR PATTERN. PAT
AGREES. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FT HELD TO 3.0 BASED
ON DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. AODT IS 3.0.

$$

WROE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/1326 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8 SOUTH
179.0 WEST AT 041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR, HR MTSAT EIR
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING gradually. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 to 45 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ORGANISATION CONTINUED TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR. SOME WARMING STILL
OCCURING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT 3.0. PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW ALONG THE CVA REGION. SHEAR
CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AGREE ON A TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 050000 UTC NEAR 19.0S 179.0W MOV S 06KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 051200 UTC NEAR 20.1S 178.9W MOV S 06KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 060000 UTC NEAR 21.3S 177.8W MOV SSE 06KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 061200 UTC NEAR 24.7S 175.2W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CLIFF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming a little better organized.

[P.K.]

14F has not strengthened since the last update.

GALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 04/1906 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH
178.1 WEST AT 041800 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 178.1W AT 041800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN SOUTHWARDS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.0S 176.9W AT 050600 UTC
AND NEAR 23.4S 175.3W AT 051800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 004.

[HURAKAN]

Is that an eye?!?!?!

[HURAKAN]

04/2322 UTC 20.0S 177.9W T3.5/3.5 CLIFF -- South Pacific Ocean

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 05/0048 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0 SOUTH
177.7 WEST AT 050000 UTC. POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.0S 177.7W AT 050000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 176.1W AT 051200 UTC
AND NEAR 24.7S 174.5W AT 060000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 005.

[JonathanBelles]

Is that an eye forming? What is that?

[Chacor]

The IR still shows a sheared system.


SAB just went with T3.5.

[Chacor]

Deep convection dropping off, looks like it's weakening:

[Chacor]

053
WWTO40 NFFN 050300 CCA

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF ISSUED
FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 05/0422 UTC 2007 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND EUA
ISLAND.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF [980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 177.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 125 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NUKU'ALOFA OR 140 MILES WEST OF NOMUKA OR 170
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HA'APAI AT 050300 UTC.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 85
KNOTS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK THE
CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUALOFA OR
125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA OR 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAAPAI AT 050900 UTC AND
ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUALOFA OR 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NOMUKA AT 051500 UTC.

FOR TONGATAPU GROUP, EUA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR DURING THE
EVENING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUDNERSTORMS. FLOODING, INCLUDING
RAPID SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL TONGA
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ABOUT
CENTRAL TONGA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS ALSO EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS. SEAS
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TONGA INCREASING TO HIGH SEAS THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050700 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 05/0807 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 SOUTH
177.3 WEST AT 050600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES
OF THE CENTRE AND WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE.

CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING GRADUALLY WITH SHEAR STILL EVIDENT. OUTFLOW
FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT WEST. DVORAK BASED ON CURVED
BAND WITH 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.5. PAT AND MET
AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF THE UPPER [250
HPA] DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR CURRENTLY LOW TO
MODERATE BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SOUTH. CLIFF ALSO MOVING INTO
COOLER SST REGION STEERED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 051800 UTC NEAR 23.8S 175.8W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 060600 UTC NEAR 25.9S 173.8W MOV SSE 14KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 061800 UTC NEAR 27.7S 171.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 070600 UTC NEAR 29.1S 169.0W MOV SE 14KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CLIFF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
051400 UTC.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 176.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 050145Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ZEALAND TO
VANUATU, WHICH IS SETTING UP A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN
FOR TC 23P. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD NEAR TAU
12 AS IT MOVES ALONG A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT
THIS TIME TC 23P WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND
060900Z.//