SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[Yankeegirl]

I feel like I am back up in YankeeLand.... Good Lord!!

[wxman22]

latest GFS looks intresting....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS just lowered Saturday's high to 49-degrees!!! If this happens, then this will be the COLDEST high temperature EVER recorded in Houston during the month of April. That is pretty amazing! (the coldest thus far was a 51-degree high on April 13th, 1980).

Also, check this out (from the Houston AFD)! This is unbelievable. I cannot believe what I am seeing for it being APRIL!!! Snow, sleet? In the HGX forecast area?! Talk about wild weather.

ALL THE BUZZ HAS BEEN ABOUT THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING FROZEN
PRECIPITATION OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HONESTLY...OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW....MORE
SOUTHERN ZONES A RAIN-SLEET MIXTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A
VERY DEEP SUB-FREEZING T-TD PROFILE FROM AROUND 930MB UP...AND THE
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. THIS SURFACE WARM LAYER MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIP WHICH WOULD LEAN THE
FORECAST TO A WINTRY MIX. AS OF NOW...NORTHERN MODEL SOUNDINGS SAY
SNOW. THICKNESS ANALYSIS OF THE 1000-850 MB LAYER SUPPORT SNOW OR
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE THICKNESS VALUES DIP
BELOW 1300M AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850-1000MB
THICKNESSES DISPLAY SIMILAR FROZEN PRECIP TRENDS UP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AS THE SNOW-MIXED PRECIP MARKER OF 1555 DAM (MIX) TO
1540 DAM (SNOW) ARE MEET OR UNDER THESE VALUES FROM SAT 12Z ON
THROUGH SUNDAY. BTW...THIS ROUGH ESTIMATE OF 1000-850DAM THICKNESS
VALUES THAT WOULD CONSTITUTE A FROZEN PRECIP MIX GO AS FAR SOUTH
AS A INTERSTATE 10 LINE AT SUN 12Z. OF COURSE...ALL MODEL SOUNDING
AND THICKNESS EVALUATION ASIDE...THE TIMING OF THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD HAVE TO BE PRESENT (NOT TO MENTION THE
PROVERBIAL DISCLAIMER `BOUT MODEL DATA) WHEN THE PARAMETERS ABOVE
ARE MET. GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL GET A FROZEN MIX UP IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF HOUSTON...WASHINGTON...AND BRAZOS.
ATTM...WILL NOT PUT IN GRIDS AS THERE ARE TOO MANY SHIFTS AHEAD OF
ME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Looks like snow is very possible for northern zones with possible rain/sleet for the rest. Pretty crazy.

[JenBayles]

My frazzled old brain recalls a similar situation in very late March back in the mid 80's here in Houston. I remember stepping out on my porch to go to work, and similar to a Three Stooges move, both legs went up in the air and I ended up sprawled on the steps in a very unladylike position. My apartment stairs were a solid sheet of ice. I made it back inside to replace the ripped hosiery and change clothes, when I got a call from the boss saying, "Stay home!" Timing really is everything...

[weatherrabbit_tx]

My frazzled old brain recalls a similar situation in very late March back in the mid 80's here in Houston. I remember stepping out on my porch to go to work, and similar to a Three Stooges move, both legs went up in the air and I ended up sprawled on the steps in a very unladylike position. My apartment stairs were a solid sheet of ice. I made it back inside to replace the ripped hosiery and change clothes, when I got a call from the boss saying, "Stay home!" Timing really is everything...

BIG OUCH!! ya this weekend is going to be crazy weather wise been telling people at work how different the weather is going to be this weekend no one believes it, even I have a hard time doing so, hope this is not a foreboding about our hurricane season, just some wierd feelings like in 2005 not as bad though!

[Yankeegirl]

This is the latest e mail I just got from Jeff.... I freaked out when I read it, and had to post it... Sorry whom ever I beat to it!!!!

I am at a loss for words this evening as a record breaking winter weather event is in the making for this weekend.



I honestly cannot believe I am about to write the following e-mail on April 5th.



Discussion:



Very cold arctic air mass will come southward over the next 24 hours returning the area to winter. Will go ahead and undercut guidance by at least 5 degrees and show highs only near 50 for Saturday…some will stay in the 40’s which will be not only daily but possibly monthly records. Onset of precip. Will be early Saturday as trough moves E from NW Mexico. Profiles and varies thickness factors along with 850mb temps. Suggest we must entertain the idea of a winter precip. mix Saturday night and Sunday along and N of I-10 and especially over our N counties.



850mb temps combined with partial thickness values and profiles from the GFS and NAM suggest a rain/snow mix or rain/sleet mix starting late Saturday night N and spreading southward Sunday morning. Good news is that surface temps. Should remain above freezing unless greater drier air advection arrives allowing greater wet bulb cooling than expected. Hence any frozen precip. should melt on contact with the ground.



Best threat of a snow/rain mix or change to snow is N of HWY 105 where surface temps. fall into the mid 30’s.



At this time since no accumulations are expect no watches or warnings will be needed. As with any winter weather forecast must will change over the next 24 hours and large forecast changes with P-types and temperatures should be expected.



Forecast:



Saturday: turning cloudy and much colder. Temps falling into the mid 40’s. A 70% chance of rain



Saturday night: cloudy and very cold with temps near steady in the mid to upper 30’s. An 80% chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet. Rain may change to snow N of HWY 105. No accumulation is expected.



Sunday: cloudy and cold with highs near 55. A 50% chance of morning rain possibly mixed with sleet.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

wow!

[southerngale]

Thanks for posting that, Yankee. I need to change my email addy with Jeff because I rarely check that one anymore.

Wow... just the fact that it's mentioned kinda cracks me up. We usually worry about chocolate melting during Easter egg hunts... lol. I guess if you hide real eggs and can't find some for a while, they won't ruin.




That just looks funny this time of year... for down here, anyway.

[vbhoutex]

My frazzled old brain recalls a similar situation in very late March back in the mid 80's here in Houston. I remember stepping out on my porch to go to work, and similar to a Three Stooges move, both legs went up in the air and I ended up sprawled on the steps in a very unladylike position. My apartment stairs were a solid sheet of ice. I made it back inside to replace the ripped hosiery and change clothes, when I got a call from the boss saying, "Stay home!" Timing really is everything...

Pics, we want pics!!!!LOL j/k Jen!!!! I remember when you are talking about. I wish my boss had said to stay home then!!

[Ptarmigan]

The NWS just lowered Saturday's high to 49-degrees!!! If this happens, then this will be the COLDEST high temperature EVER recorded in Houston during the month of April. That is pretty amazing! (the coldest thus far was a 51-degree high on April 13th, 1980).

Also, check this out (from the Houston AFD)! This is unbelievable. I cannot believe what I am seeing for it being APRIL!!! Snow, sleet? In the HGX forecast area?! Talk about wild weather.

ALL THE BUZZ HAS BEEN ABOUT THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING FROZEN
PRECIPITATION OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HONESTLY...OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW....MORE
SOUTHERN ZONES A RAIN-SLEET MIXTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A
VERY DEEP SUB-FREEZING T-TD PROFILE FROM AROUND 930MB UP...AND THE
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW. THIS SURFACE WARM LAYER MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIP WHICH WOULD LEAN THE
FORECAST TO A WINTRY MIX. AS OF NOW...NORTHERN MODEL SOUNDINGS SAY
SNOW. THICKNESS ANALYSIS OF THE 1000-850 MB LAYER SUPPORT SNOW OR
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE THICKNESS VALUES DIP
BELOW 1300M AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850-1000MB
THICKNESSES DISPLAY SIMILAR FROZEN PRECIP TRENDS UP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA AS THE SNOW-MIXED PRECIP MARKER OF 1555 DAM (MIX) TO
1540 DAM (SNOW) ARE MEET OR UNDER THESE VALUES FROM SAT 12Z ON
THROUGH SUNDAY. BTW...THIS ROUGH ESTIMATE OF 1000-850DAM THICKNESS
VALUES THAT WOULD CONSTITUTE A FROZEN PRECIP MIX GO AS FAR SOUTH
AS A INTERSTATE 10 LINE AT SUN 12Z. OF COURSE...ALL MODEL SOUNDING
AND THICKNESS EVALUATION ASIDE...THE TIMING OF THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD HAVE TO BE PRESENT (NOT TO MENTION THE
PROVERBIAL DISCLAIMER `BOUT MODEL DATA) WHEN THE PARAMETERS ABOVE
ARE MET. GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL GET A FROZEN MIX UP IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF HOUSTON...WASHINGTON...AND BRAZOS.
ATTM...WILL NOT PUT IN GRIDS AS THERE ARE TOO MANY SHIFTS AHEAD OF
ME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Looks like snow is very possible for northern zones with possible rain/sleet for the rest. Pretty crazy.

This is interesting and bizarre. If sleet and snow falls this weekend, this would be the latest on record. The latest snowfall to ever fall in Houston was on March 10, 1932. Is there a link for that NWS forecast?

[Ptarmigan]

I wouldn't mind a cold weekend as long as it is no raining, which is the case. It's like winter again.

[jasons2k]

Kinda interesting to say the least...but the timing is a bummer. So much for BBQ outside Easter weekend. Guess I'll cook soup instead hehe.

[Ptarmigan]

Kinda interesting to say the least...but the timing is a bummer. So much for BBQ outside Easter weekend. Guess I'll cook soup instead hehe.

Just like Christmas again, sort of.

[jasons2k]

Once again, Jeff says it all:

Potential for historical weather event over TX this weekend

Heavy rains, coastal flooding, strong winds, and very cold temps. all on tap for the weekend.

Discussion:

Onset of late season cold arctic air mass will be later today as frontal boundary pushes into the region. Expect temps. to fall after midnight tonight and fall through the 40’s during the day on Saturday. Increasing pressure gradient between developing coastal low and massive arctic high will howl ENE winds across the Gulf on Saturday with gale conditions possible. Wind transport support coastal tidal build up and possible tides of 4.0-4.5 feet above normal by late Saturday which will cause overwash and coastal flooding.

Precip and P-type:

I cannot believe there is even need to discuss P-type issues in April

Intensity and depth of incoming cold air mass is very rare for April and historical P-type issues are at hand this morning across our northern counties. Rain should onset by early Saturday across the entire region ahead of weak short wave disturbance. However the main event will be late Saturday through Sunday. Coastal low develops and moves ENE up the TX coast with very cold air mass funneling into the region from the NNE. Profiles support rain mixed with sleet and snow possible from Saturday afternoon through about 300am Sunday morning north of a line from Columbus to Livingston. Surface temps. are forecast to remain above freezing, so what falls that is frozen should melt. Per NAM and GFS cross sections for IAH showing a sub-freezing layer above the surface about 1000ft thick suggest we could see some sleet mixed into the Houston area although at this time is unlikely. Any kind of frozen precip in early April in SE TX would be historic!!!

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches. Rainfall rates will be highest Saturday night when coastal tides will be highest and some minor flooding along the coastal will be possible from both sources. Widespread rainfall over already high rivers could cause rises above flood stage next week.

Wind:

Windy conditions will develop early Saturday as cold arctic high wedges into the area. Expect gale conditions to develop offshore late Saturday with sustained winds of 20-30mph inland and along the coast. Could see gust of 35-40mph along the coast overnight Saturday as the cold air spills across the warm nearshore waters.

Temps:

Enjoy today as we will not get back above 60 until Monday and much of the weekend will be spent in the 40’s even for highs. Record low maximums will likely fall both Saturday and maybe Sunday as this rare weather event unfolds. Will need to keep a very close watch on Monday AM as skies may clear allowing freezing temps. across the area. Freezing temps in April would be record breaking and damaging to freshly budded vegetation.

When combined with the strong winds it will feel very cold around the area on Saturday and Sunday.

Due to the historic nature of this event the models are having a difficult time of resolving the fine details as they are trending toward climo which will fail horribly in such a situation. Hence guidance is likely running a little too warm through the period and its P-types are likely incorrect.

Incoming air mass is similar to very cold outbreak in 1938 around the same time of year.

[Johnny]

WTF!?? Excuse my language but WOW!!! I wasn't expecting to come here this morning and see a forecast like this!! Bizarre is an understatement.

I think I'll go by a brisket and smoke it all day tomorrow. It looks like it will be great weather to slow smoke some meat!

[JenBayles]

Someone explain to me how a Northeast wind results in water moving ONSHORE? I've launched enough boats in my lifetime to remember that a southern quadrant gale blows water towards shore; North winds blow it all out of the bays. Tell me this is a misprint?!

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT FRI APR 6 2007/

MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS AND WIND ARE THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS WILL HELP GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LOOK LIKELY IF THE MODELS PAN OUT.

THE PERSISTANT AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP PUSH WATER
LEVELS ONTO THE COAST. AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIDES MAY BECOME A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IF THE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS PAN OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY IF
CONDITIONS WARRENT...MEANING IF TIDES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ABOVE
4.5 FEET ABOVE THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER LEVEL.

[JenBayles]

Yeah, looks like a great cooking weekend shaping up. Johnny - I hope your smoker is under cover so you won't be running out in a cold rain all day to stoke the fire! As for me, I'm thinking it's gumbo time... again. And here I thought my gumbo pot was done for the season.

[Johnny]

Good point Jen. It is undercover but it's a 10 yard walk from my front porch to the smoker which is under my carport. lol Gumbo sounds pretty darn good too! Heck, so does chili!

I hope all of y'all are getting outside today to enjoy the beautiful weather. It's all downhill come mornin' time.

[PTrackerLA]

I can't believe how cold it's going to get around here. 34 degrees and rain is our forecast for Saturday night! This cold air must have been bottled up in Canada somewhere because it has felt almost like summer for the past 3-4 weeks here. Fortunately we'll be picking up some more rain but it's going to be quite a miserable Easter weekend ...and I don't even know what I would do if it starts snowing LOL.

[Yankeegirl]

This is crazy weather!! I wish Thanksgiving was like this.... I think I am going to make Thanksgiving dinner for Easter.... Sounds like a plan....