TX Winter Wx Threat # 11-- sleet and snow in a lot of Tx/La

[double D]

It's April 5th and were still talking about winter weather? I thought I wouldn't have to visit this forum again until at least October. Lets just hope the clouds stay around at night because the last thing we need is a freeze after everything looks so nice and green.

I'm also starting to think Saturday night and Sunday morning could get interesting here in the hill country, especially if the GFS is underestamating the cold.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's April 5th and were still talking about winter weather? I thought I wouldn't have to visit this forum again until at least October. Lets just hope the clouds stay around at night because the last thing we need is a freeze after everything looks so nice and green.

I'm also starting to think Saturday night and Sunday morning could get interesting here in the hill country, especially if the GFS is underestamating the cold.

If the GFS underestimates the cold, then we will all be in for a major event. Any colder than the 37-degrees currently forecasted for my area of northern Houston would certainly mean a higher chance at wintry-type precipitation. Heck! Just 5-degrees colder and we would be at freezing. Unbelievable for April!

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z GFS MOS is calling for a low of 32-degrees and a dewpoint in the 20s at IAH on Sunday morning (with precip). This is about 4-degrees colder than it had us on the 12Z run, and much more conductive for wintry weather.

[vbhoutex]

Really incredible for this time of year!!! Most of us wrote off the winter forum a few weeks ago.

[Ptarmigan]

00Z GFS MOS is calling for a low of 32-degrees and a dewpoint in the 20s at IAH on Sunday morning (with precip). This is about 4-degrees colder than it had us on the 12Z run, and much more conductive for wintry weather.

The absolute latest 32 degree temperature in Houston is April 13th.

[TexasStooge]

[font=Arial]There are already Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings issued for areas mainly north of the Red River, and within 24 hours, the North Texas area might be affected by those freeze alerts as well. Last Night, I've seen the NWS forecast map stating that areas north and west of the immediate DFW area may get some wintry precip. I highly doubted that will happen, though it has happened before on an Easter Weekend 2 years ago.

WICHITA FALLS

Tonight: 34°F
Saturday: 41°F | 31°F
[hr]
ABILENE

Tonight: 30°F
Saturday: 38°F | 30°F
Sunday: 44°F | 36°F
[hr]
LUBBOCK

Tonight: 30°F
Saturday: 34°F | 27°F
Sunday: 44°F | 34°F
[hr]
AMARILLO

Today: 35°F | 24°F
Saturday: 28°F | 22°F
Sunday: 41°F | 31°F
[hr][/font]

[Extremeweatherguy]

the morning NWS shift seems less bullish on the idea of winter weather reaching I-10 (I think they are afraid to say something like that in April) . Instead, they are saying north of a caldwell to livingston line (even though the latest models are actually colder than yesterday afternoon). Either way, it is interesting to note that they dropped my forecast low to 36 tomorrow night (still with a 70% chance of precip), which means that they are obviously trending even colder. Should be interesting to see this afternoon's update..

[Portastorm]

the morning NWS shift seems less bullish on the idea of winter weather reaching I-10 (I think they are afraid to say something like that in April) . Instead, they are saying north of a caldwell to livingston line (even though the latest models are actually colder than yesterday afternoon). Either way, it is interesting to note that they dropped my forecast low to 36 tomorrow night (still with a 70% chance of precip), which means that they are obviously trending even colder. Should be interesting to see this afternoon's update..

In their defense EWG, wouldn't you be reluctant to be mention sleet and freezing rain and snow in this part of Texas in early April??!! They're reluctant to mention it during January and February let alone April!

We're talking about the possibility of an event this weekend that would make history, a once in several generation type thing!

Can you even believe that we're still in this forum? I figured we'd solidly be Talkin Tropics by now. This is just one reason why I love following weather. Isn't it great?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

the morning NWS shift seems less bullish on the idea of winter weather reaching I-10 (I think they are afraid to say something like that in April) . Instead, they are saying north of a caldwell to livingston line (even though the latest models are actually colder than yesterday afternoon). Either way, it is interesting to note that they dropped my forecast low to 36 tomorrow night (still with a 70% chance of precip), which means that they are obviously trending even colder. Should be interesting to see this afternoon's update..

In their defense EWG, wouldn't you be reluctant to be mention sleet and freezing rain and snow in this part of Texas in early April??!! They're reluctant to mention it during January and February let alone April!

We're talking about the possibility of an event this weekend that would make history, a once in several generation type thing!

Can you even believe that we're still in this forum? I figured we'd solidly be Talkin Tropics by now. This is just one reason why I love following weather. Isn't it great?!

very true, if it were me I would probably be very afraid to mention sleet or snow in this area of Texas during April (let alone January). I guess I was just a little disappointed I didn't see the "possibly to I-10" quote (like I did yesterday) in this mornings AFD even after the forecast temperatures were dropped. I can understand why they are holding back though, this is a very tricky situation. Either way, regardless of rain, sleet or snow, it is going to be a record-smashing event for sure. The high here on Saturday will be nearly 30 degrees below the average and may be Houston's coldest high EVER for the month of April. Pretty amazing to think about, and yes this is why I love following the weather!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Unbelievable weather coming this weekend. Especailly when faced with the fact that a month from now, we'll be crying about 90 degree temps and 90% humidity.

[jasons2k]

I cannot believe I am back in this thread.

Anyway, here is the update from Jeff I also posted in our SE TX thread:

Potential for historical weather event over TX this weekend

Heavy rains, coastal flooding, strong winds, and very cold temps. all on tap for the weekend.

Discussion:

Onset of late season cold arctic air mass will be later today as frontal boundary pushes into the region. Expect temps. to fall after midnight tonight and fall through the 40’s during the day on Saturday. Increasing pressure gradient between developing coastal low and massive arctic high will howl ENE winds across the Gulf on Saturday with gale conditions possible. Wind transport support coastal tidal build up and possible tides of 4.0-4.5 feet above normal by late Saturday which will cause overwash and coastal flooding.

Precip and P-type:

I cannot believe there is even need to discuss P-type issues in April

Intensity and depth of incoming cold air mass is very rare for April and historical P-type issues are at hand this morning across our northern counties. Rain should onset by early Saturday across the entire region ahead of weak short wave disturbance. However the main event will be late Saturday through Sunday. Coastal low develops and moves ENE up the TX coast with very cold air mass funneling into the region from the NNE. Profiles support rain mixed with sleet and snow possible from Saturday afternoon through about 300am Sunday morning north of a line from Columbus to Livingston. Surface temps. are forecast to remain above freezing, so what falls that is frozen should melt. Per NAM and GFS cross sections for IAH showing a sub-freezing layer above the surface about 1000ft thick suggest we could see some sleet mixed into the Houston area although at this time is unlikely. Any kind of frozen precip in early April in SE TX would be historic!!!

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches. Rainfall rates will be highest Saturday night when coastal tides will be highest and some minor flooding along the coastal will be possible from both sources. Widespread rainfall over already high rivers could cause rises above flood stage next week.

Wind:

Windy conditions will develop early Saturday as cold arctic high wedges into the area. Expect gale conditions to develop offshore late Saturday with sustained winds of 20-30mph inland and along the coast. Could see gust of 35-40mph along the coast overnight Saturday as the cold air spills across the warm nearshore waters.

Temps:

Enjoy today as we will not get back above 60 until Monday and much of the weekend will be spent in the 40’s even for highs. Record low maximums will likely fall both Saturday and maybe Sunday as this rare weather event unfolds. Will need to keep a very close watch on Monday AM as skies may clear allowing freezing temps. across the area. Freezing temps in April would be record breaking and damaging to freshly budded vegetation.

When combined with the strong winds it will feel very cold around the area on Saturday and Sunday.

Due to the historic nature of this event the models are having a difficult time of resolving the fine details as they are trending toward climo which will fail horribly in such a situation. Hence guidance is likely running a little too warm through the period and its P-types are likely incorrect.

Incoming air mass is similar to very cold outbreak in 1938 around the same time of year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I cannot believe I am back in this thread.

Anyway, here is the update from Jeff I also posted in our SE TX thread:

Potential for historical weather event over TX this weekend

Heavy rains, coastal flooding, strong winds, and very cold temps. all on tap for the weekend.

Discussion:

Onset of late season cold arctic air mass will be later today as frontal boundary pushes into the region. Expect temps. to fall after midnight tonight and fall through the 40’s during the day on Saturday. Increasing pressure gradient between developing coastal low and massive arctic high will howl ENE winds across the Gulf on Saturday with gale conditions possible. Wind transport support coastal tidal build up and possible tides of 4.0-4.5 feet above normal by late Saturday which will cause overwash and coastal flooding.

Precip and P-type:

I cannot believe there is even need to discuss P-type issues in April

Intensity and depth of incoming cold air mass is very rare for April and historical P-type issues are at hand this morning across our northern counties. Rain should onset by early Saturday across the entire region ahead of weak short wave disturbance. However the main event will be late Saturday through Sunday. Coastal low develops and moves ENE up the TX coast with very cold air mass funneling into the region from the NNE. Profiles support rain mixed with sleet and snow possible from Saturday afternoon through about 300am Sunday morning north of a line from Columbus to Livingston. Surface temps. are forecast to remain above freezing, so what falls that is frozen should melt. Per NAM and GFS cross sections for IAH showing a sub-freezing layer above the surface about 1000ft thick suggest we could see some sleet mixed into the Houston area although at this time is unlikely. Any kind of frozen precip in early April in SE TX would be historic!!!

Rainfall Amounts:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches. Rainfall rates will be highest Saturday night when coastal tides will be highest and some minor flooding along the coastal will be possible from both sources. Widespread rainfall over already high rivers could cause rises above flood stage next week.

Wind:

Windy conditions will develop early Saturday as cold arctic high wedges into the area. Expect gale conditions to develop offshore late Saturday with sustained winds of 20-30mph inland and along the coast. Could see gust of 35-40mph along the coast overnight Saturday as the cold air spills across the warm nearshore waters.

Temps:

Enjoy today as we will not get back above 60 until Monday and much of the weekend will be spent in the 40’s even for highs. Record low maximums will likely fall both Saturday and maybe Sunday as this rare weather event unfolds. Will need to keep a very close watch on Monday AM as skies may clear allowing freezing temps. across the area. Freezing temps in April would be record breaking and damaging to freshly budded vegetation.

When combined with the strong winds it will feel very cold around the area on Saturday and Sunday.

Due to the historic nature of this event the models are having a difficult time of resolving the fine details as they are trending toward climo which will fail horribly in such a situation. Hence guidance is likely running a little too warm through the period and its P-types are likely incorrect.

Incoming air mass is similar to very cold outbreak in 1938 around the same time of year.

If the guidance is too warm and the P-types are incorrect..does that mean we actually may be looking at a colder scenario with a more widespread sleet/snow event? That would be crazy! Hard to believe we may actually be looking at a better chance for wintry precipitation in April than we do many times during the winter.

I hope we do not get a freeze out of this though. I have some sensitive plants growing now that would be severely damaged by a freeze. I really do not want to have to look at a dead spring-time landscape for the next few weeks.

[wxman22]

Notice how the 1 inch snow line goes as far south a longitude degress 30 if that were to varify there would be 1 inch of snow accumilation as far south EXTREME northern Harris county or (North of the beltway).... NOTE: This is from a blog on accuweather not accuweather commecial data.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 04-06_1416


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 04-06_1336

[Portastorm]

I saw that graphic on the Accuwx pro site. Actually, the 12z NAM run is colder and more dramatic for central and SE Texas than any run I have seen thus far ... an outlier if you will. The 12z GFS run is not as cold with temps but still plunges the 0z 850mb line well across central Texas.

This is a very complicated scenario and I'll leave it to the experts to glean out details. They have their work cut out for them this weekend, that is for sure!

In the meantime, I'm going to make sure we have plenty of film on hand in case this crazy winter storm pans out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Notice how the 1 inch snow line goes as far south a longitude degress 30 if that were to varify there would be 1 inch of snow accumilation as far south EXTREME northern Harris county or (North of the beltway).... NOTE: This is from a blog on accuweather not accuweather commecial data.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 04-06_1416


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 04-06_1336

If that snow graphic verifies, then I think it is safe to say the world is ending. lol. That kind of snow/ice would be incredible in January, so the fact we see it now as a possibility in April is beyond belief. Very strange situation shaping up, and since we have no real historical events to back us up, this will essentially be a confusing and mysterious event the whole way through.

As portastorm said...time to get the camera ready just in case this actually does wind up happening.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS MOS is 2 degrees warmer than the 00z for IAH (34 instead of 32 Sunday morning), but at the same time it is also looking more favorable for sleet late Saturday. For the first time so far, it now shows IAH's precipitation to be in a form other than rain from 18z Saturday to 00z Sunday. Interesting indeed.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I saw that graphic on the Accuwx pro site. Actually, the 12z NAM run is colder and more dramatic for central and SE Texas than any run I have seen thus far ... an outlier if you will. The 12z GFS run is not as cold with temps but still plunges the 0z 850mb line well across central Texas.

This is a very complicated scenario and I'll leave it to the experts to glean out details. They have their work cut out for them this weekend, that is for sure!

In the meantime, I'm going to make sure we have plenty of film on hand in case this crazy winter storm pans out.

Does this qualify as a Lucy holding the football event for you? Or is a rare spring practice game attempt?

[Portastorm]

I saw that graphic on the Accuwx pro site. Actually, the 12z NAM run is colder and more dramatic for central and SE Texas than any run I have seen thus far ... an outlier if you will. The 12z GFS run is not as cold with temps but still plunges the 0z 850mb line well across central Texas.

This is a very complicated scenario and I'll leave it to the experts to glean out details. They have their work cut out for them this weekend, that is for sure!

In the meantime, I'm going to make sure we have plenty of film on hand in case this crazy winter storm pans out.

Does this qualify as a Lucy holding the football event for you? Or is a rare spring practice game attempt?

LOL! Geez CC, I don't know. We're now in such uncharted waters with this possible event that I'm not sure how I would classify it. It's crazy that we're even writing/posting about it, you know?!

Personally I am still skeptical of anything happening besides a cold rain. I gave up on winter 2 months ago.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast has trended a degree or two colder for tomorrow and Sunday, but the good news is it has also trended a bit warmer for Sunday night (meaning less chance of a freeze). Still looks like we will be teetering on the edge of winter precipitation potential though. 35-degrees with precipitation and a dewpoint near or below freezing could spell trouble...

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 45. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 67.

The latest AFD still isn't out yet though. I will be anxiously awaiting that.

[TexasStooge]

Here's the latest Special Weather Statement from the NWS in Fort Worth:

Code: Select all

A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET TO MIX WITH
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR
ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES...HOWEVER ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT ANIMALS AND VEGETATION THAT MAY BE
SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN.