Thoughts On This Weekends Big Nor'Easter

[Bonedog]

What are the thoughts on this weekends big Nor'Easter thats set to develope? From my local met office disscusions ( OKX ) they are talking about a storm not seen in many years Is this the feeling across the pro mets?? The GFS runs of late show a bombing Low developing and HPC is calling for up to 5" or more from this storm.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
126 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

VALID 12Z SUN APR 15 2007 - 12Z THU APR 19 2007

..INTENSE STORM FOR EAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...

...EAST...

MDT TO HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD E AND NEWD SUNDAY FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MID AND S ATLC REGIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NC COAST. DEEPENING LOW SUNDAY WILL BRING GALE FORCE SRLY
WINDS ALONG THE S ATLC COAST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING NE GALE FORCE
WINDS INTO THE MID ATLC. THE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OFF MID ATLC
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE INTO THE NY BIGHT BRINGING GALE TO STORM
FORCE E/NE WINDS INTO NEW ENG/LONG ISLAND WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON AND TUES. ABOVE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON
PHASE AND ENHANCED BY A LONG FETCH OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INLAND....PCPN TYPE WILL BECOME MORE COMPLICATED AS CONDITIONS SFC
AND ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NEW ENG/NY/NWRN NJ/PA AND POSSIBLY SWD DOWN THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS.
HEAVY SNOW THREAT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND A POTENTIAL
HISTORIC EVENT. A FAIR SYNOPTIC ANALOG FOR THIS SYSTEM SFC AND
ALOFT IS DEC 1992 STORM.

SOUTHWARD....THE DEEP STORM WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE W-NW WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON AND CONTG TUESDAY AND KEEPING UP NW FLOW
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY IN THE MID ATLC REGION. PROLONGED OFFSHORE
FLOW LIABLE TO BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TIDES CHES BAY/DEL BAY WITH
A THREAT OF SOME SOUNDSIDE TIDAL FLOODING NC OUTER BANKS. THIS
EVENT HAS SIMILARITY TO EARLY APRIL 1975 BLOWOUT EVENT. THIS
AFFECTING SHIPPING IN DEL/CHES BAY HARBORS. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. POTENTIALLY HISTORIC EVENT.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here are the 72hr precip projection, and 96hr surface forecast:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif


Wow what a storm!

[Bonedog]

Wow I just read the HPC report and was also reading Dr. Jeff Masters wonderblog and he is saying it may be compriable to a Cat 1 hurricane in terms of surge and distruction. He is saying it may exceed 100 million dollars Dr. Jeff Masters Wunder Blog

Whatever the outcome the northeast is in for a major hit. I hope this isnt a sign for things to come this hurricane season

[angelwing]

The Jersey shore is gonna be wrecked if it develops the way these models are saying, it's not going to be pretty

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sebastian Junger better get ready to write a sequel.

Seriously this one looks nasty. Batten down the hatches folks.

[angelwing]

I just reread Jeff Masters blog...a Cat 1 possibility??? It's going to be nasty driving into Wrightstown from Phily on Monday...wonder if I could get the day off

[Stephanie]

I just reread Jeff Masters blog...a Cat 1 possibility??? It's going to be nasty driving into Wrightstown from Phily on Monday...wonder if I could get the day off

Do you want to hang with me in Atlantic City? BOMBS AWAY!!

Hey, maybe I'll FINALLY see a good hurricane at the Jersey shore after all!

[angelwing]

Heehee Stephanie, I'd love to if I could, if I took the day off I'd probaly catch up on sleep so I can be awake to go in my night job. And if the old man wanted to gamble he's probaly drag my butt over to Phila Park, we have to still see that one!

A hurricane down the shore is great! We were staying in Seaside Heights in September (I can't remember the year) when a hurricane brushed by, I think it was Fran, not sure of the name but it had to be between 1992-1996, the waves crashing the pier were great!

Stay safe!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

According to the Weather Channel...this storm could a hurricane in terms of wind and surge for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast!!

[Thunder44]

I will start preparing for this storm today buy stocking on batteries, candles, and food. I may even have to leave here tomorrow, if things look that bad and evacuations are issued here in the Rockaways. I fear coastal flooding the most out this storm.

[CrazyC83]

According to the Weather Channel...this storm could a hurricane in terms of wind and surge for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast!!

More like a MAJOR hurricane?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Let us hope not.

[Bonedog]

Amazingly I just dusted off and double checked the hurricane kit. Did not think I would need it in NJ but looks that way.

I am like you guys though on Monday. I work right on the waterfront so I get to see this all first hand. And High tide is slated for 7:55AM

This will be an interesting weekend I'm sure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is looking to be one heck of a nor'easter to me, looking at the models forms it off NC around 12z Sunday. Then it slowly moves up the front side of the upper level low over the ohio river valley. Amazing jet energy gets pumped into this system. By Monday at 12-00z this system is just south of Long island, at this time it is pulling the freaking upper level low over the top of it. Gfs 00z says 979 mililbars, ukmet 974 millibars. Then it sits there pounding the coast.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is what is happening closer to home with the storm:

000
FXUS61 KCAR 141533
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1119 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENG SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING
NEAR EASTERN MA W/WINDS CRANKING AND PRECIP PULLING N. LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP AND STRONGER WINDS WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
NAM THE COLDEST W/STARTING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW EVERYWHERE
WHILE THE GFS & TO SOME DEGREE THE GEM WARMER W/PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW GOING TO RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST & THE COAST AS WARMER
AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLC. AT THIS POINT...A
BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR THE GRIDS LOOKS TO WORK FINE.

DECISION WAS TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH MAINLY FOR THE COAST AT
THIS TIME FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONCERNED THAT STRONGER WINDS
WILL NOT MIX DOWN OVER INLAND SECTIONS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED HOWEVER W/LATER GUIDANCE COMING IN.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THAT
TRAJECTORY IS ENE...LOOKS LIKE GYX/S AREA IS MORE OF A CONCERN.
COULD BE BEACH EROSION FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS FURTHER W/LATER GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS REALLY GET GOING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE INTENSE LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PULLS TO THE E. A TRUCK LOAD OF PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE INTO THE ENTIRE CWA W/ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OF QPF
ESP FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO THE COAST. CRITICAL THICKNESS SCHEMES
AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ESP
N & W W/A LATER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. FLOODING IS A CONCERN FOR THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE COAST AND THIS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER INLAND.

THINGS FINALLY
WIND DOWN BY WEDNESDAY W/A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS BY LATE WE
W/OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP.

Source: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/CAR/AFDCAR