Round two for Florida?? Surge Event?? Tornado Watch!

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=61

This discussion is erie March 93 rings a bell?? Maybe not as bad but the early indications are kind of interesting??

FXUS62 KTBW 121828
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
GULF TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDES EAST ACROSS FL REACHING THE ATLANTIC
SAT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE SE
U.S. FRI NIGHT AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING SAT
AS A ROBUST LOOKING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS PCPN AND PROVIDE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND WARM AFTERNOONS...MAXES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY SOME 2 TO 4
DEGREES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOL NORTH TO NE FLOW
INTO FRI. AS THE HIGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS TO MORE EAST AND SE...ALLOWING MINS TO WARM SOME AND THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE SAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SO IT GOES.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SET UP FOR A
HAZARDOUS EVENT SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. UNUSUALLY STRONG SPRING STORM (LOW PRESSURE) WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN ON ITS TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PENINSULA SUNDAY PRECEDED
BY A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL HAVE PLENTY OF POTENCY AND COULD WELL
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES)
ACROSS A LARGE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KICK UP RIP CURRENTS AND SOME HIGH SURF PERHAPS AS SOON AS
LATE SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON TIME OF HIGH TIDE WE`LL NEED TO
CLOSELY EXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR A SURGE-LIKE COASTAL FLOOD.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE BECOMING CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AS DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

FOR ALL USERS...PLEASE STAY TUNED PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHEN WE HOPE
TO GET MORE DETAILS OUT ON POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS EVENT.

AFTER THE LINE PASSES...A BRIEF LULL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
CONDITIONS A BIT SLOWER TO COOL GIVEN STILL HIGH THICKNESS AND 850
TEMPS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AND WILL CALL
SUNDAY "WINDY" THOUGH CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS THOUGH AFTERNOON WINDS
MAY GUST FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL
PLEASANT. CERTAINLY A LOT NICER HERE THAN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES WHERE A NASTY "NOR`EASTER" WILL CONTINUE TO
RAGE.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE TOUCH AND GO. 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS A
"CLIPPER" TYPE LOW RACING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PERHAPS
A RATHER COOL...THOUGH BRIEF...PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
THIS SAID...ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST TILT TO THE MEAN
STEERING FLOW AND THE LOW WOULD FORM FARTHER NORTH...POTENTIALLY
PLACING SOME OF THE AREA IN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WITH
DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE LACKING...WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEXT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIR WITH STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPDATED LEVY COUNTY TO A RED FLAG THIS
AFTERNOON. ON FRI THE DRY AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DOWN TO PASCO WITH A WATCH UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG.
A WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CWFA.

&&

.MARINE...NW WINDS 15KT OR LESS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY/ BUT WITH
A SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE FRI AFTERNOON/ BY SAT AND INCREASE TO PERHAPS
SCA LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS A SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING WINDOW WITH SW WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 20-25KT ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE TSTMS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT INTO AT LEAST PART OF
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LAST VESTIGE OF LOW BROKEN/OVERCAST RIDING ALONG THE
COAST AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z AT
KPIE/KSRQ. OTHERWISE...WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TERMINALS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY AND LEAVE VFR
SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTER 22Z...DRY AIR SHOULD SURGE ACROSS ALL AREAS
LEAVING VFR CLEAR. SOME MVFR SCATTERED CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE
MORNING FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS ADJUST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 60 84 68 84 / 5 5 5 5
FMY 64 89 66 87 / 5 5 5 5
GIF 60 87 65 88 / 5 5 5 5
SRQ 62 84 65 84 / 5 5 5 5
BKV 50 86 56 87 / 5 5 5 5
SPG 67 84 70 83 / 5 5 5 5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-POLK.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CITRUS-
HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...09/RKR

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yikes!!! Severe Weather this weekend
Sounds like a Tropical Storm with the "Surge"

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ... that looks interesting.

We had some pretty strong squalls offshore today. One pair of people were out off Fowey Rocks in a 16 foot open boat (not too bright.) Last I heard they had only rescued one of them.

[JonathanBelles]

LOCAL met just stated there could be hurricane force on the east coast of FLORIDA. possible?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only way you would see hurricane force winds on the east coast of Florida is if a very severe squall line or a derecho formed. Until I see that happening though, I am not convinced.

[tbstorm]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=1&max=61

This discussion is erie March 93 rings a bell?? Maybe not as bad but the early indications are kind of interesting??

Perhaps, but the set up is different from March 93.
March 93


Today


The squall line in 93 was MUCH better defined, and the low pressure came ashore in the Big Bend area. Right now we have a less defined squall line compared to Mar 93, and the center of low pressure is farther N, in LA/AR border at 1004mb, which is not as strong as the 93 storm.

Looks like this squall line will be rolling through central FL btwn 3A-9A tomorrow. If it were coming thru in the afternoon I'd say the risk would me much greater.

[Opal storm]

They're forecasting 7-10 ft seas and large surf for us today and tonight.

[jaxfladude]

Best of luck to all tonight thru the next few days due to this storm system..............

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 141732
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
132 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DOWN INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF. A SQUALL LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM EXTREMEM NORTHWEST GEORGIA DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS LOW AND CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S..

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...UPPER TROUGH IS PHASING WITH SURFACE
LOW AND WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRAVELS
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THERE BY
12Z SUNDAY...AND THE TRAILING FRONT WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THE SQUALL LINE IS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
FOR TAMPA BAY...WE`RE EXPECTING THE LINE TO COME THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY NOON.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HAZARDS AS THIS LINE COMES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO
THE MIDWEEK SQUALL LINE...MANY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE RAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS TIME HOWEVER
INDICATE 50-60 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB. SO WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS EVENT. ALSO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
HELICITY TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE. RAINS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH FOR TOTALS AS THE LINE WILL MOVE QUICKLY.

ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WINDS ARE
BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SUCH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE WATER START TO PILE UP ALONG EXPOSED
COASTAL AREAS...WITH A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE
VALUES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER PROBLEM MAY BE RIGHT
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WHERE MAY SEE A QUICK PILE UP OF WATER COME
IN. FINALLY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS.
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WITH BOTH THE THREAT FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND HIGH SURF FOR ALL OF OUR
COAST.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
START HOWLING AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOVERING JUST UNDER THE BORDER FOR A
WIND ADVISORY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET
AT 18Z TOMORROW. WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SECOND PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)..."MARCH IN APRIL" CONTINUES TO
BE THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK AS LOW INDEX UPPER PATTERN...MEANING
CONTINUED FAST WESTERLY FLOW UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHT
VALUES...REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUITE PLEASANT IF YOU`RE NOT READY FOR THE HEAT TO COME
IN MAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT REMAINS A QUICK HITTING TROUGH
WHICH HELP DEVELOP THE AFOREMENTIONED "CLIPPER" SYSTEM STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTED THAT THE FORECAST LOW
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WAS TOO FAR SOUTH...AND INDEED
RECENT RUNS ARE NOW TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
NORTH FLORIDA WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...TUESDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY
PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED AREAS AS WINDS FINALLY GO CALM. UPPER 30S
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS INTERIOR NATURE COAST
AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST ABOVE 40. A GREAT
AFTERNOON TO FOLLOW WITH READINGS NEAR 80 AND HUMIDITY LOW. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BEGIN CLEAR FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. AS FOR WEDNESDAY...GIVEN LITTLE
CHANCE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY I`M NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT WITH IT BEING THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL ALONG WITH
CHILLY 500 MB TEMPERATURES IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH FOR HAIL AND SOME
WIND. WHILE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW SUGGESTS THUNDER
EVERYWHERE...HAVE ONLY EDGED NORTH TO PASCO AS 850 THICKNESSES
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BUT
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGEST THESE MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE
LOWERED. IN ANY CASE...EVENT COULD BE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME DURING THE
DAY SO SINCE IT IS STILL DAY 4 WILL LEAVE AS IS.

THEREAFTER...A QUICK SHOT OF NORTHERLY FLOW BUT TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BE WARMER THURSDAY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOK AWESOME RIGHT NOW WITH TEMPERATURES STILL A HAIR BELOW
NORMAL...BUT 78 TO 83 IS NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT! CERTAINLY A
BETTER BOATING WEEKEND THAN THE ONE WE`RE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...AS EXPECTED...A BREEZY BUT STILL MVFR TO VFR AFTERNOON
UNDERWAY WITH MORNING CIRRUS GONE AND SCATTERED CUMULUS BASES RISING
FROM 2500 FEET TO 4000 FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER AT TIMES PARTICULARLY KPIE TO KSRQ. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR THE COAST UP UNTIL 2
AM.

THEN THINGS WILL GET INTERESTING. GFS AND NAM REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH
WILL APPROACH OR STRIKE KTPA/KPIE BY OR JUST BEFORE 12Z. FULLY
EXPECT PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE TEMPO GROUP AND MAINTAIN SIMILAR
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WITH SQUALLS.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD REACH KSRQ BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z...THEN PLOW
THROUGH KFMY/KRSW BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
THE WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE SQUALL LINE...BUT STILL GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER 16Z EXPECT CRANKED WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FROM KSRQ TO KTPA WITH SCATTERED IF NOT BROKEN
NEAR THE MIXING LAYER...AROUND 3000 FEET NEAR THE COAST. GFS STILL
SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SOME REMNANT SHOWERS.

MAY WELL NEED AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WITH THE SQUALL LINE EARLY
SUNDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...IT`S ABOUT TIME TO WRAP UP ANY TRIPS OUT INTO THE GULF OR
BAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WINDS ARE PICKING UP WITH GUSTS NOW UP TO 25
KNOTS AT BUOY 42039. FURTHER SOUTH IT`S TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO
PICK UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP TO ADVISORY RANGE FOR ALL WATERS
AND INTO THE BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES IN THE MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30
KNOTS AT LEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS POINT TO GO FOR A GALE WARNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

WINDS COME BACK DOWN MONDAY MORNING...AND NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER
HEADLINE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES US ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SLOT IN THE CUMULUS FIELD LOOKS LIKE IT IS OVER
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED TOO FAR YET.
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A
SHORT-FUSED WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT UP IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GULF SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE 35 PERCENT FOR HUMIDITIES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE UP IN LEVY
COUNTY...BUT EVEN THERE THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS ONLY 20-25
DEGREES IN GUIDANCE. CHINK IN THE ARMOR IS THAT IT WILL BE WINDY
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ANYWAY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HUMIDITY WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
WATCH FOR NOW.

FOR MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN DRY AIR COMING DOWN AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 30-40 DEGREE TEMP
DEWPOINT SPREADS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 73 49 70 / 40 60 5 0
FMY 72 77 54 75 / 20 60 5 0
GIF 70 74 47 73 / 30 60 5 0
SRQ 70 73 51 69 / 30 60 5 0
BKV 66 71 42 71 / 50 60 5 0
SPG 71 73 55 69 / 40 60 5 0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
SUMTER.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.


GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 NM.

SMALL CRAF

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=1&max=61

This discussion is erie March 93 rings a bell?? Maybe not as bad but the early indications are kind of interesting??

Perhaps, but the set up is different from March 93.
March 93


Today


The squall line in 93 was MUCH better defined, and the low pressure came ashore in the Big Bend area. Right now we have a less defined squall line compared to Mar 93, and the center of low pressure is farther N, in LA/AR border at 1004mb, which is not as strong as the 93 storm.

Looks like this squall line will be rolling through central FL btwn 3A-9A tomorrow. If it were coming thru in the afternoon I'd say the risk would me much greater.

I based my comments on the earlier NWS discussion and what they were expecting.

[dizzyfish]

Still not sounding like a good day weather wise.....

000
FXUS62 KTBW 150630
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
230 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING...EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY MID MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WIND PROFILES DO SHOW MODERATE L/L SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN U/L
SUPPORT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS WILL CREATE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER ALL COUNTIES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE TAMPA BAY COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. COOL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH TUESDAY.

[Aquawind]

It's a little later than I expected and the line is thin but it's coming. Just moving onshore in Pinalles County and moving pretty fast.

[dizzyfish]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
856 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT

* AT 856 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NEW PORT RICHEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JASMINE ESTATES BY 855 AM EDT.
MOON LAKE ESTATES BY 900 AM EDT.
SPRING HILL BY 905 AM EDT.
WEEKI WACHEE BY 910 AM EDT.
MASARYKTOWN BY 915 AM EDT.
SAN ANTONIO BY 920 AM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OF LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.

[vbhoutex]

* AT 856 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NEW PORT RICHEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

Jonathan please report in as soon as you can!!!

Has there been a comfirmation of this tornado?

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh, S*it
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
FLUS42 KMFL 151414
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

FLZ063-066>075-160215-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...TORNADO WATCH ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT...
...WIND ADVISORY 11 AM THROUGH TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF COAST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...THEN BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

TORNADOES: SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

WIND: THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 TO 70MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF, WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

HAIL: PENNY TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF OF COLLIER
COUNTY WILL RISE TO 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE
ATLANTIC TO 9 TO 11 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY
TODAY. THUS, SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

DG

[Aquawind]

I added Tornado Watch to the title. It had been windy and sticky ahead of the front this morning. The line is still off my coast but I just heard my first rumble. Gr3 has shown alot of rotation in cells along in the line.

[rainydaze]

Waiting here in North Palm Beach for the squall line. Right now it's cloudy and windy. It's not supposed to get here until a little later. Now it's raining

[Aquawind]

Waiting here in North Palm Beach for the squall line. Right now it's cloudy and windy. It's not supposed to get here until a little later. Now it's raining

Ditto here. Except we haven't gotten any of the cells out front like yourself. They are moving fast! The line is going to be crossing SoFla durring the warmest part of the day. There will be some warnings out of MIA alrighty..

[Evil Jeremy]

this is going to be a big system. Do any of you guys think that South Florida will see any tornados today?

[jdray]

Pretty fun stuff.

Rain has passed here in NE Florida. Still have 20-40mph wind gusts though.

Cecil Field recorded a 55mph wind gust.