GFS Warm Core Low

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SouthFloridawx
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GFS Warm Core Low

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Apr 19, 2007 3:00 pm

GFS is picking up on an area of Low Pressure that it is designating a warm core system. Maybe it could end up being Sub-Tropical? I don't know much about it, but I just noticed it and wanted to post about it here. It is currently centered east of florida @ 30N.

[web]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif[/web]

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07041906/34.html[/web]

It's not much to look at now.
[web]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg[/web]
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#2 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Apr 19, 2007 3:17 pm

Looks interesting. probably too early to make anything of it. But the time is coming soon in the next month and a half.
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#3 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Apr 19, 2007 8:47 pm

Although the potential surface low is under high shear from the tropospheric flow, it has a better chance of attaining some slight warm-core characteristics than the previous system. Unfavorable lapse rates and dry air are inhibiting convection, and the system is shallow and not vertically stacked. Timing is the biggest issue, and there will not be a large margin of breathing room before the system is absorbed by the westerlies. In addition, take the overall unfavorable synoptics and time of year as the judge (as it's April). Shallow western Atlantic lows under similar synoptic environments typically do not develop within this time of the year. It is much more intriguing (in terms of possible subtropical characteristics) than the recent systems but don't count on subtropical cyclone development.
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#4 Postby boca » Thu Apr 19, 2007 10:43 pm

Sorry no Anna this month.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:52 am

This same scenario a few months in the future the result could be very different.
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#6 Postby Bonedog » Fri Apr 20, 2007 8:03 am

I will give you a realtime update on that system as I will be enroute to Bermuda starting 1pm tomorrow. So far the High Seas Forcast from the OPC is calling 25knt winds 14 foot seas in the area of this Low.
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#7 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 10:03 am

boca wrote:Sorry no Anna this month.




You mean,Andrea 8-)
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#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:14 am

There seems to be an area to be looked at off the southeast coast

http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/v ... ville.html
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#9 Postby boca » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:38 am

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#10 Postby wjs3 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 12:13 pm

...Fun to watch anyway. The visible shots are cool. You can also see the circulation (kind of) in the Melbourne long range radar.
Just so shallow, though--moisture must be confined to the low levels becasue it is invisible on WV imagery and barely there on IR. Any convection must be very, very shallow.

WJS3
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#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Apr 20, 2007 12:37 pm

If its still there tomorrow, we may have a system to talk about
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#12 Postby chris_fit » Fri Apr 20, 2007 12:55 pm

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Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:01 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... ersion=000



FXUS62 KTBW 201751
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA IS
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AND MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...SOME 40 TO 50 MILES OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN TH LATEST VISIBLE/IR SAT DATA...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
. THE MOISTURE
FIELD IN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE LOW MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN CIRCULATION ALONG THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND REACH SOME OF OUR
INTERIOR AREAS ON FRIDAY. NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW BUT THE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA TO HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CURRENT 20 POPS FOR THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE CURRENT BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW SPREADS OVER THE STATE AND HELPING IN KEEPING TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON MAXS.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:30 pm

Image

Image

[font=Georgia]LOOKS REALLY NICE!!![/font]
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#15 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:36 pm

Here's a GARP image with surface plots. There is a weak LLC, just 10-15 kts. Water temps in the area are 75-77F, but shear is high. Just a weak eddy at this point.

Image
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#16 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:39 pm

Pretty neat none the less...Considering its April
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#17 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Apr 20, 2007 1:53 pm

Wow that is scary, what is the pressure in the area?
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#18 Postby wxman57 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 2:10 pm

fact789 wrote:Wow that is scary, what is the pressure in the area?


Pressure is 1013-1014mb.
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#19 Postby AJC3 » Fri Apr 20, 2007 2:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:
fact789 wrote:Wow that is scary, what is the pressure in the area?


Pressure is 1013-1014mb.


I sampled one IR pixel of -7C within the *snicker* "convective banding". Neat little vortex to look at nonetheless - will probably freak out a few of the local fishing charter captains who look at sat imagery now and then.
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MiamiensisWx

#20 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Apr 20, 2007 2:25 pm

I agree with AJC3. This weak system (frontal eddy) is nontropical. In addition, the structure is very shallow (with very little convection). The upper-level shear is high due to proximity to flow behind a surface front (and mid-level frontal trough and weak shortwave signature). This system is associated with weak steering (and weak convergence) on the south side of a surface front. I see no development.
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