SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[Johnny]

I don't know if I have something wrong upstairs or what but 95+ degree temps is what I'm looking forward to!!

[vbhoutex]

I don't know if I have something wrong upstairs or what but 95+ degree temps is what I'm looking forward to!!

I think it is OR WHAT!!!

[JonathanBelles]

I am not looking foreward to the 95+ temps.

[jasons2k]

I don't know if I have something wrong upstairs or what but 95+ degree temps is what I'm looking forward to!!

I guess we suffer the same sickness Johnny.

My new anthem is "Summertime" by Kenny Chesney!!

[southerngale]

I was awake when the storms blew through here last night, but I didn't realize there was a lot of damage just south of Beaumont, in Nederland, until this afternoon.



Overnight Storms Damage Homes, Businesses

The storms that blew through Southeast Texas Tuesday night caused damage to several homes in the Nederland area. Police report damage to the Babe Ruth baseball fields and the surrounding neighborhood. Central Mall also suffered roof damage and lost a couple of skylights. We have a crew in the area and will have much more on this story on your Hometown News at 5, 6, and 10.
Posted by: Scott Price @ 2:36p.m.

http://kbtv4.tv/news/default.asp?mode=shownews&id=14407




My goodness... I didn't realize they were THAT bad! We didn't even have any severe thunderstorm warnings or anything.




--------------------------







Power Outage Causes Spill at Wastewater Plant

Tuesday`s storms caused some minor problems at the Port Arthur Wastewater Facility. A power failure caused the facility to spill 750,000 gallons. The spill was maintained inside the plant. The plant did apply Chlorine tablets to the ground at the plant`s stormwater runoff outfall. The spill was reported to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
Posted by: Scott Price @ 2:44p.m.

http://216.87.159.39/news/default.asp?m ... s&id=14408

Just to update the first story...

The storms that blew through Southeast Texas Tuesday night caused damage to several homes in the Nederland area. Police report damage to the Babe Ruth baseball fields and the surrounding neighborhood. Central Mall also suffered roof damage and lost a couple of skylights. Residents say they were awaken by the sound of trees falling. Some residents say they were still recovering from Hurricance Rita, and now they have to start over.

updated by: sdenman@kbtv4.tv



My goodness. I had no idea they were THAT bad. We didn't even have any severe thunderstorm warnings or anything.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont think we even had thunder or lightning here in the Katy area... Thats just crazy!! I hope all is well for them, prayers going to them....

[Extremeweatherguy]

SPC is thinking we could see some severe weather come next Tuesday and Wednesday...



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

--ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...APRIL 23RD...THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY...APRIL 24TH AND THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...APRIL 25TH.--

...DISCUSSION...

DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES ON DAY 4 /APRIL 23RD/...SHIFTING IT E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS ON DAY 5 /APRIL 24TH/...AND THEN DEAMPLIFYING IT AS IT
TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE ACROSS A SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST WARM SECTOR SUCH THAT IT APPEARS THAT MULTIPLE SEVERE STORM
EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY...APRIL 23RD OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...TUESDAY...APRIL
24TH OVER THE SRN INTO CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN ON WEDNESDAY...APRIL
25TH OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. THEREAFTER...SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS SUCH
THAT NO ADDITIONAL DAYS WILL BE DELINEATED.

..MEAD.. 04/20/2007

[jasons2k]

The latest outlooks have now shifted north of here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest outlooks have now shifted north of here.

keep in mind though that on the 4 day+ outlooks, the red circled area only represents where there will be a 30% or higher risk. That does not mean that we will not still be in the 15% (which is still slight chance) risk zone. Lots can change though in the coming days and I seriously think this could go either way. It could very well end up being another dull event or it might be a decent one, only time will tell. I will have more confidence once we get into the Day 3 range.

[Yankeegirl]

The storms always go to the north!!!

[jasons2k]

From the NWS-HGX - this makes me happy to see them reference summer:

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWEST READINGS FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO HAPPEN THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING. WE`LL PROBABLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS OVERNIGHT LOWS STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S.
ENJOY THESE TEMPERATURES WHILE YOU CAN...BECAUSE YOU KNOW WHAT`S COMING
REAL SOON!

[JonathanBelles]

We are supposed to hit 86 by next friday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's something we don't see from the Houston NWS too often...

UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYLINE APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN. GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY WITH PWS
1.5-1.7 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS SE TX. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...MODELS FORECASTING CAPES >1500
J/KG AND LIS AROUND -4 SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY COULD FAVOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS WELL. THIS IS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HWOHGX.

weakening cap? Seems like we never see that around here! I will certainly be watching this more carefully now.

[JenBayles]

Looking up there isn't it EWG? In the meantime, I'm heating the pool again (last time, honest Injun!) and dragging the water hose around the yard.

[jasons2k]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
340 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2007

.DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE
SOME TIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

[JenBayles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND WARM HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
AND POSSIBLE MCS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
TX...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ON WEST COAST WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT LEAD
SHORTWAVE TO CROSS SE TX TUESDAY EVENING. PWS INCREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING CAP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. WILL LIKELY SEE AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING AS THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT OVER OUR NRN/WRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING. SPC DAY 3
OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT RISK JUST NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA.

UPPER LOW LIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MS VALLEY WITH WEAK SFC
FRONT/DRYLINE REACHING OUR NRN/WRN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FORECAST CONTINUATION OF 1.6-1.8 INCH PWS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF TSRA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AS GFS FORECASTING CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
AND LIS OF -4 TO -6 WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH HIGH PWS IN PLACE AND SLOW
MOVING BOUNDARY.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER SE TX WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ECMWF SHOWING AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND OTHER MODELS
KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CWA. HAVE GONE WITH GFS/CANADIAN
THIS RUN WITH ECMWF BEING THE OUTLIER.

[AirmaN]

Dissappointing day in the central plains... =/

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS looks interesting around here early Wednesday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

[Yankeegirl]

Bring it on....

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z NAM run is also looking interesting... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

And the 00z GFS is just coming in now. Should be interesting to see what it says.