SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT MON APR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW UNDER THE STRONG CAP SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON UP NORTH. CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING IS NOT THAT HIGH...SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET THE MORNING CREW EXAMINE THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND EARLY PART OF THE 12Z MODELS AND ADD POPS IF NEEDED. DO
NOT THINK WE`LL SEE MUCH HAPPEN TONIGHT...THEN THINGS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ON TUESDAY. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AREA...OUR LOW MORNING POPS WILL EVOLVE INTO HIGHER AFTERNOON POPS AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH AN ERODING CAP AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH LOWER VALUES NEAR THE COAST). CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST...WILL HAVE A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET...CAPES BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000...LI`S OF -6 TO -9 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES >1.75
INCHES. CONFIDENCE OF THIS RISK IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. MINOR MODEL CHANGES AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES OF THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY REQUIRE SOME TIMING AND
LOCATION CHANGES OF OUR MENTION OF SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
STAY TUNED! WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IT COULD END UP BEING VERY VERY WET CENTRAL AND COAST...SO
HAVE INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY OR WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END
UP RAISING THESE NUMBERS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. EVERYTHING LOOKS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS SO WILL INDICATE
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
MODELS NOW HAVE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE APRIL AFTERNOON HIGHS. 42

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like they have really upped the chances of rain for Tuesday and Wednesday!! The local news said an 80% chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain.... Nice!!

[jasons2k]

Below is the latest dicussion on the system.

The timing doesn't look favorable for much severe weather for us. It'll be very interesting to see how this evolves as these systems often don't play-out anything like originally forecasted.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 1.4-1.6 INCHES) REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
STRONG CAPPING THIS AFTN. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES
FROM TIME TO TIME. SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WRN MEXICO WILL AFFECT CWA ON TUESDAY. 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWS
REACHING 1.7-1.8 INCHES BY TUE AFTN. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS IN
PLACE AND LIFT GENERATED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WOULD EXPECT
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TUE AFTN. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE NW THIRD TUE AFTN WHERE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND HELICITIES >200 M2/S2. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...THINK ENOUGH CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRECLUDE SEVERE
WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF TSRA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE NAM/GFS
FORECAST PWS 1.8-1.9 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE IN THE
SFC-850 MB LAYER AND STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS SE TX GOES INTO
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100 KT JET MAX. LIFT WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME
AS STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER LOW INTO THE
CWA. MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TX TUESDAY EVENING AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO OUR NW THIRD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODELS FORECASTING HELICITIES
>200 M2/S2. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS MCS MOVES INTO MORE CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SE HALF OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES...
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST RUNS OF
NAM/GFS FORECASTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE NW THIRD FROM
06Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE HWOHGX WITH LATEST THINKING.

MCS SHOULD EXIT CWA EARLY AFTN WEDNESDAY IF NOT SOONER. PREFER THE
SLOWER NAM WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY NOT LIKELY TO
CROSS CWA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...NOT FOLLOWING THE NAM
FORECAST OF TSRA REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY BE WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER SE TX THU/FRI WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS UNTIL WE SEE BETTER AGREEMENT. 35

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, if the MCS can move in early (Tuesday evening) or hold off a bit later (Wednesday afternoon), then we will probably have a much better shot at severe weather. However, if it moves in overnight (as they always do it seems) then it will probably be yet another event where we just see some isolated wind and hail reports with a possible weak tornado or two in the SE Texas area.

We should know a lot more once this all gets going tomorrow.

update - - - After looking at the 18z models, I wonder if this may have a shot at actually being a pretty decent event despite being nighttime. Looks like both the NAM and GFS want to blow up a large area of high QPFs over SE Texas and the vorticity looks impressive too.

[JenBayles]

Someone tell me if I'm losing my mind, but I'm not so worried about a severe event Tuesday night. I'm more worried about a possible local flooding event on Wednesday. All it takes is a good, strong piss-down for my little part of the world to get water into our homes. With the increasing PWs and eroding cap, I'm paying close attention to this event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Someone tell me if I'm losing my mind, but I'm not so worried about a severe event Tuesday night. I'm more worried about a possible local flooding event on Wednesday. All it takes is a good, strong piss-down for my little part of the world to get water into our homes. With the increasing PWs and eroding cap, I'm paying close attention to this event.

no, you are not losing your mind. Flooding rains look to be very possible from this system with many areas likely recieving 1-2"+. However, the severe threat also needs to be watched. Whatever mess that develops out west of here tomorrow will be tracking our way overnight. Could get rough if it develops right.

[JenBayles]

Thanks for that comment Extreme. Looking at the satellite pic, it appears rain might get going earlier than tomorrow afternoon. What say you? Anyone else?

[Bunkertor]

What is the difference between a MDT-Risk coloured red and a MDT-Risk coloured green... does the colour characterize the probability of an upgrade

[JonathanBelles]

MDT-Risk green? that would be SLGT-Risk.

[Bunkertor]

MDT-Risk green? that would be SLGT-Risk.

Yes, green is for slight but thought there used to be another colour than red....but might be a mistake...

[hurrican19]

it used to be GREEN / Slight -- ORANGE / Moderate -- RED / High which to me was a better color code scheme to use.

[Extremeweatherguy]

it used to be GREEN / Slight -- ORANGE / Moderate -- RED / High which to me was a better color code scheme to use.

yeah, that is a much better scale.

[Extremeweatherguy]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
558 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS ONE AND TWO...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DRAGS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING
PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.

[JenBayles]

What does it take to bust this darn cap anyway?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1041 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS PWS 1.5-1.7 INCHES...850 MB DEWPOINTS OF
12-14C AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ACROSS SE TX.
12Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPPING ABOVE THE MOIST
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHICH HAS BEEN GENERATING SCATTERED -SHRA AND
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILE IN PLACE
(HELICITIES >300 M2/S2). DESPITE THIS...STILL THINK THAT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ALLOW THE
CAPPING TO HOLD THROUGH LATE AFTN. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS
AFTN BUT EMPHASIZE THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY AS
SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS SE TX. MORE ON THAT IN AFTN DISCUSSION.

&&

[Johnny]

We've got a nice squall line taking shape across central and north, Texas. Also some isolated storms have popped up ahead of the main squall line.

http://radar.wunderground.com/data/640x ... adarc3.gif

A 'Tornado Watch' has been issued for this area till 8pm tonight. I'm thinking this tornado watch will be extended southward and eastward as times goes on.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

It also looks like over a dozen counties are under a 'severe thunderstorm warning' where this squall is currently situated.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/099.html

I think this will be our best chance of severe weather this spring season.

[JenBayles]

The Dome is still holding off the rain showers that have moved in all around us throughout the morning hours. Just a windy gloomy day so far.

[wxman22]

OMG have yall seen the latest SPC maps!!!! MODERATE risk extending into Northwest harris county and HIGH risk around Austin and central Texas!!!



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK...TX...NW LA...WRN AR...AND SW MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING. INITIAL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER
SCALE CIRCULATION...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
IN THE EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
INITIAL IMPULSE...STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
CYCLONE...NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW...CELLS HAVE BEEN
QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...MINIMIZING
TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ROOT IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASING SURFACE BASED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT STILL
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT.

FARTHER SOUTH...WIND SHIFT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE HAVE PROVIDED FORCING/FOCUS FOR
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE NEAR/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS HAVE NOT
STEEPENED STRONGLY...BUT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LINE IS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.

...CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OKLAHOMA...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...REMAINS STRONG.
40+ KT 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM MAY AID LARGE SCALE FORCING...AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND...TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES.

..KERR.. 04/24/2007

[JenBayles]

I'm still not too concerned with a severe threat in far west Houston. No, my concern lies more with the possibility of training storms and possible flooding. Seen enough of flooding here in the past few years.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting quite concerned that a monster squall line may try to form out of this before arriving here.

[TexasSam]

This was unexpected... by me at least.

325 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COMBINES WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

Aslo my weather alert hasn't gone off...