Moderator: S2k Moderators
HurricaneBill wrote:I'm concerned that the recent bust on April 13th in regards to a significant outbreak will cause some people to be complacent.
TexasStooge wrote:Just hope it's not a repeat of April 13th. However, I do have a video camera ready to record any severe weather in my area.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
520 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHILE
DRYLINE EVENTUALLY ADVECTS TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT ENOUGH BREAKS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR
GOOD HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR EARLY TODAY...WELL AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.
INITIAL DRYLINE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT STAFF IS PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND ERN OKLAHOMA...NRN AND NERN TEXAS...PARTS OF
WRN MISSOURI AND FAR WRN ARKANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /A FEW
STRONG/...VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
TO APPEAR LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
00Z NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM CO/NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ESEWD FROM SERN CO TO ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BORDER REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARM FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO SRN MO AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL RETREAT STEADILY NWD...
STRETCHING FROM NRN KS EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND SRN IND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT/MIX RAPIDLY NE AND E TO VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SRN KS SWD ALONG
OR JUST W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK/N TX AND THEN EXTEND SWWD TO NEAR
DRT BY MID AFTERNOON.
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE NWD WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG/E OF DRY LINE.
AT 12Z TODAY...AN AREA OF ELEVATED...AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE... TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME NEAR
AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITHIN CONTINUED ZONE OF STRONG WAA NEAR AND N OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE DAY OVER PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL KS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACTS ON A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. DESPITE BEING EARLY IN THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AS DRYLINE SURGES
NEWD/EWD...AND ALSO ALONG WARM FRONT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/ AND VERY
LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.
FARTHER S...MODELS ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF TSTM
INITIATION SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK/N TX...GIVEN STRONGER
CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS INCONSISTENCY...PATTERN
RECOGNITION SHOWING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WITHIN MOISTENING AIR MASS SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SWD ALONG DRY LINE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
TSTM INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFTER 00Z. DESPITE THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING VERY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SSWWD
ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL/SWRN TX TO NEAR DRT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST EWD INTO ERN
KS/ERN OK INTO WRN MO/AR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EWD. MEANWHILE...AS SRN EXTENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPREADS EWD THROUGH SRN/SERN OK AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX AND ERN/S CENTRAL TX.
...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS IN THE OH VALLEY...
SSWLY LLJ...ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EWD RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
TODAY. WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO TEMPER THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
SRN MO TO WRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELLS...THOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
CrazyC83 wrote:Surprisingly didn't jump to a HIGH risk. Probably just enough thermal environment uncertainty to keep it MDT, but of course that could change later...
snoopj wrote:Hmm....one would think this first line might take a lot of punch away from the second line.
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