SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[Yankeegirl]

stupid capping....

[JenBayles]

I was afraid you were going to say something like that jeff. Looks to be a long night for me and mine. Training rains are horrible news for us under the Bear Creek Dome. Too many floods to count in the past 5 years or so.

[KatDaddy]

Looks like the morning rush hour for Houston could severely impacted unless a large bow develops and blast across Texas around 3AM or so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Windy at IAH:

SE 29 G 32 MPH

[KatDaddy]

LLJ pumping in the moisture off the GOM. I expect winds to increase during the night as the MCS develops.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Jen, I got a job... Gotta be to work at 7 am tomorrow!!! Prolly in the rain too...

[JenBayles]

No sh*t Yankee?!!! Where at? What about the kidz? I know you're a night owl too - you must really be dreading that early morning alarm!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest from the SPC:

...CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OK...
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL /90+ KT/ AND UPPER LEVEL /120+ KT/ JETS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN FURTHER INCREASE IN
ASCENT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TO ERN TX
ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SWLY LLJ FROM SRN-ERN
TX COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...SOME
TORNADIC...FROM PARTS OF SW TO NE TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SQUALL LINE/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO E/SE TX. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WIND
PRODUCING SQUALL LINE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN HIGH AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS ACROSS SW THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

Windy at IAH:

SE 29 G 32 MPH

It's been windy lately. That's a bad sign.

[Yankeegirl]

I know, I hate to get up early!! I work at fm 529 animal clinic... right past the fire station... So I bet tomorrow is going to be nice and slow cause of the weather... Oh well... Whats your take on the weather tonight? More rainy or more stormy or both?

[Ptarmigan]

JenBayles has a good reason to fear heavy rain and flooding.

Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-251700-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0003.070425T0500Z-070425T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...
KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PIERCE...
PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS
325 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COMBINES WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH
AREA...CHECK PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF
FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO ESCAPE
FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

$$

NWS Houston

Looks worse every minute.

[jeff]

Development near Del Rio looks to be the start of MCS formation with broken line of supercells north to W of DFW likely to congeal to forward moving complex. Downstream air mass over SC TX is potentially very unstable with CAPE of 2500-3500 and steepening laspe rates. Low level inflow is very good over SE TX and LLJ should intensify later this evening as boundary layer decouples rpviding ample converegnce along leading edge of squall line.

IF complex does not "blast" through with bowing segments concern for flash flooding is very high given extemely high moisture levels and nearly saturated air column. Where line slows, would not be surprised to see a few totals over 5 inches very quickly.

[Ptarmigan]

Development near Del Rio looks to be the start of MCS formation with broken line of supercells north to W of DFW likely to congeal to forward moving complex. Downstream air mass over SC TX is potentially very unstable with CAPE of 2500-3500 and steepening laspe rates. Low level inflow is very good over SE TX and LLJ should intensify later this evening as boundary layer decouples rpviding ample converegnce along leading edge of squall line.

IF complex does not "blast" through with bowing segments concern for flash flooding is very high given extemely high moisture levels and nearly saturated air column. Where line slows, would not be surprised to see a few totals over 5 inches very quickly.

It's developing right now. I expect it will get more organized and larger later tonight. It should be in Houston by later tonight or early morning. I say between 2:00 to 6:00 AM.

[JenBayles]

Yes, I do have good reason to fear this possible flooding event ptarmigan. "Training storms" is one term I dread. My only hope is that the Bear Creek Dome will prevail once again. Three inches of rain here equates to water in the streets over the sidewalks. Four inches and it's beginning to come into homes. Over that... don't want to see it again. We've been in this house since 1992, and only in the past 5 years or so has the drainage just gone to sh*t. Too much building NW of us in our watershed, and with the US Army Corps of Engineers in charge of our drainage plans, well... everyone saw how well their plans worked in New Orleans, right? We're screwed.

[Yankeegirl]

the wind is realllllllly picking up here!!! Good lord!!!!

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, I do have good reason to fear this possible flooding event ptarmigan. "Training storms" is one term I dread. My only hope is that the Bear Creek Dome will prevail once again. Three inches of rain here equates to water in the streets over the sidewalks. Four inches and it's beginning to come into homes. Over that... don't want to see it again. We've been in this house since 1992, and only in the past 5 years or so has the drainage just gone to sh*t. Too much building NW of us in our watershed, and with the US Army Corps of Engineers in charge of our drainage plans, well... everyone saw how well their plans worked in New Orleans, right? We're screwed.

I am sorry to hear that. Houston is prone to flooding for sure. Second only to New Orleans. Has me concerend too. Training storms can dump huge amount of rain. I've seen it as high as 30 inches!

[JenBayles]

Was that 30 inches during TS Allison?

[Extremeweatherguy]

the wind is realllllllly picking up here!!! Good lord!!!!

yeah, it almost feels like a TS is moving in. The clouds are fast, the wind is strong (gusting to 30mph+), there is a bit of light rain falling (though the actual drops are quite big) and the trees are swaying around like crazy. It kind of makes you wonder about what's to come. This feels somewhat unusual for a storm event.

[Ptarmigan]

Was that 30 inches during TS Allison?

Yes. Also, there was Claudette in 1979 when it dumped 43 inches. Amelia in 1978 dumped up tp 52 inches of rain.

[Stratosphere747]

Forgot to add... How often do we see a Flash Flood Watch when we haven't already had soaking rains ahead of the final flooding rain event? Our soils aren't exactly saturated right now, so the Powers That Be must be looking for some serious p*ss downs tonight. Not good.

Our classic training set up Jen.

Storm after storm with the line barely budging. Why I'm not so worried about the severe threat. Folks might go to sleep and wake up with a good 4/5 inches have fell overnight.

Not to make you worry Jen, but this training effect is going to hinge on where the line slows down, if in fact it does....

Could be one of those events that is localized, that some areas may see less than an inch.