GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

This is the latest update from the Reynolds SST anomaly graphic.The Eastern Atlantic continues to be warm with over +2c near the African coast.The gulf will cool a little as that cold snap that reached the GOM takes effect.

[cycloneye]

Below is the 20th of April Heat Content graphic.The Caribbean Sea especially the western part is very warm.

[cycloneye]

More warming in the MDR region.

[canegrl04]

By this time in May it will probably be very warm in the GOM

[MiamiensisWx]

By this time in May it will probably be very warm in the GOM

The heat content in the western Atlantic Basin, MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico (and most of the basin) is always warm during the heart of each season. I see no reason for panic or undue alarmism. Heat content and SST anomalies ultimately do not influence the development and progression of tropical cyclones. Other factors (shear and nearby troughs or lows) can limit or halt development.

Lower pressures and reduced shear are far more worrisome than SST fluctuations (and heat content). These trends would actually support homegrown development. At this point, your concerns would be warranted as storms develop over warm waters under favorable conditions (emphasis added).

SST fluctuations are not critical for TC or subtropical genesis. Many storms (such as Ana in 2003 and the latter 2005 storms) have developed over marginal SSTs. One good reason that partially enhanced their development was the deep extent of heat content. Heat content is much more important than SSTs.

In addition, you can have warm heat content and 90°F SSTs throughout the basin (and world) and you will not feature tropical cyclone genesis. Other factors control the development of tropical and subtropical cyclones: shear, upper-air thermal dynamics, dry air, and adjacent troughs or lows can greatly affect development in a positive or negative way. These synoptics (and other factors) can easily stunt or prevent development.

There are too many comparisons to 2005. I think the alarmism must stop.

[canetracker]

There are too many comparisons to 2005. I think the alarmism must stop.

Agreed! I think 2005 left a bad mark on many, including myself, and there is some degree of understandable alarmism going on. However, as you have stated, there are many factors that must be considered before we can draw conclusions about this season. I still think it is too early to tell what will happen this year, but am patiently watching to see the setup that we will have.

['CaneFreak]

If there is anything to fret about this early in the ballgame, it would probably have to be these disturbing images.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Available POTENTIAL ENERGY in the Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif

Shear ANOMALIES for the Atlantic

Note the negative anomalies in the MDR that are approximately 30 knots below normal already. If there is anything
to be concerned about, it would be these two relatively disturbing images.

[JonathanBelles]

Wow I didnt think that It was that bad. I thought shear was stronger campared to normal than that.

[SouthFloridawx]

If there is anything to fret about this early in the ballgame, it would probably have to be these disturbing images.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Available POTENTIAL ENERGY in the Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif

Shear ANOMALIES for the Atlantic

Note the negative anomalies in the MDR that are approximately 30 knots below normal already. If there is anything
to be concerned about, it would be these two relatively disturbing images.

Yeah... I think I pointed out the below normal shear in another thread. It's something that I keep noticing...

[Scorpion]

Good... bring it on. Last season was very boring, I hope theres little to no shear this year

[tailgater]

If there is anything to fret about this early in the ballgame, it would probably have to be these disturbing images.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Available POTENTIAL ENERGY in the Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif

Shear ANOMALIES for the Atlantic

Note the negative anomalies in the MDR that are approximately 30 knots below normal already. If there is anything
to be concerned about, it would be these two relatively disturbing images.

Well on the brite side it's still April and those maps could change greatly by JULY/AUGUST, lets see where the TUTT sets up and how the SAL helps out.

[punkyg]

Good... bring it on. Last season was very boring, I hope theres little to no shear this year

Yea i hope so too.we all know last year was a boring, but what if we have a season similar to 04 season now that would make me happy.

[AnnularCane]

Not really boring, so much. It just ended too soon.

[Andy_L]

Good... bring it on. Last season was very boring, I hope theres little to no shear this year

Yea i hope so too.we all know last year was a boring, but what if we have a season similar to 04 season now that would make me happy.

*delete delete delete* naaaaaa....not going there...I'll be smart and leave this alone

[Grease Monkey]

Good... bring it on. Last season was very boring, I hope theres little to no shear this year

Yea i hope so too.we all know last year was a boring, but what if we have a season similar to 04 season now that would make me happy.

Last year was like watching paint dry. It would be nice to see at least some action this year, but there's going to be complaining soon, so we really have to get back on topic.

[Coredesat]

The shear anomalies may be low, but the shear is still there. They don't really say anything about what shear will be like during the actual season (which is a month away). In fact, the GFS forecast shows an increase in shear throughout most of the basin and a return to a zonal flow pattern for at least the next 168 hours, which should put a nail in the coffin of preseason activity in April and early May.

[hiflyer]

I seem to remember lots of discussion of the Sahara Dust being a large factor inhibiting storm development last year. If my old memory is correct then I would think a question regarding dust levels now compared to same time last year could be in order, as a companion to ssts and shear, as far looking at the upcoming season.

[GeneratorPower]

I seem to remember lots of discussion of the Sahara Dust being a large factor inhibiting storm development last year. If my old memory is correct then I would think a question regarding dust levels now compared to same time last year could be in order, as a companion to ssts and shear, as far looking at the upcoming season.

Excellent point. One thing about SAL (a.k.a., saharan dust) is that its effects are much less when you get towards the US coast line, meaning you might have systems develop closer to home rather than Cape Verde.

[drezee]

Data on SAL reasearch and testing:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... canes.html

http://www.research.noaa.gov/spotlite/a ... fex06.html

Good Article:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Margie ... amp=200607

What a picture:

[Hurricaneman]

looks like a sand storm, lots of dust and sand that would squash any tropical activity