Hurricane Alley 2007 Hurricane Landfall Map

[skywarn]

Below is a link to their landfall forecast map:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/bizbaron/ ... hp?pid=423

Link to their forecast methodology:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/bizbaron/ ... hp?pid=424

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally I believe steering trends are too complex and can't be predicted in advance of the formation of storms several months away from April, May, or even July. The timing of trough and ridge progressions are critical to tropical cyclone steering. Ridges and troughs fluctuate. Patterns are constantly changing. Small features at the various atmospheric levels (low, middle, and upper layers) affect the steering and intensity of various features at many ranges of height (for example easterly waves are affected by low-level features and are steered my mean sea-level pressures at the surface). A mature tropical cyclone is steered by the middle and upper levels (500 mbar).

In 2004, a mid-level tropospheric trough dominated the northeastern United States. Upper-level ridging was displaced further east in advance of a shortwave trough. At the same time, Hurricane Charley was south of Cuba. On its heading, Charley could have cointinued further west into Mexico or northern Gulf coast, but the stalled, weakening shortwave created a broad mid-level tropospheric trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico; thus, Charley turned northward into western Cuba and southwest Florida. If the trough had not eroded the ridging at this precise moment, the outcome would have been significantly different and Charley's course would have moved toward the west-northwest. After the eastern United States trough was displaced further inland after Charley dissipated over New England, a longwave 500 mbar ridge dominated the Southeast, steering Frances and Jeanne westward into the Treasure Coast (east-central Florida).

Patterns continually fluctuate. We can't state another region is more vulnerable than another zone due to a pattern in place at the current time. We can't predict steering in advance of the formation of storms. In addition, there are many potential setups that can put an area at risk (depending on the timing when a storm is active).

[hurricanetrack]

You stated it about as good as it can get. Perfect.

[boca]

Personally I believe steering trends are too complex and can't be predicted in advance of the formation of storms several months away from April, May, or even July. The timing of trough and ridge progressions are critical to tropical cyclone steering. Ridges and troughs fluctuate. Patterns are constantly changing. Small features at the various atmospheric levels (low, middle, and upper layers) affect the steering and intensity of various features at many ranges of height (for example easterly waves are affected by low-level features and are steered my mean sea-level pressures at the surface). A mature tropical cyclone is steered by the middle and upper levels (500 mbar).

In 2004, a mid-level tropospheric trough dominated the northeastern United States. Upper-level ridging was displaced further east in advance of a shortwave trough. At the same time, Hurricane Charley was south of Cuba. On its heading, Charley could have cointinued further west into Mexico or northern Gulf coast, but the stalled, weakening shortwave created a broad mid-level tropospheric trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico; thus, Charley turned northward into western Cuba and southwest Florida. If the trough had not eroded the ridging at this precise moment, the outcome would have been significantly different and Charley's course would have moved toward the west-northwest. After the eastern United States trough was displaced further inland after Charley dissipated over New England, a longwave 500 mbar ridge dominated the Southeast, steering Frances and Jeanne westward into the Treasure Coast (east-central Florida).

Patterns continually fluctuate. We can't state another region is more vulnerable than another zone due to a pattern in place at the current time. We can't predict steering in advance of the formation of storms. In addition, there are many potential setups that can put an area at risk (depending on the timing when a storm is active).

Hey Daniel that's the exact reason why I don't believe in these early predictions of whose more vulnerable than others.

[Opal storm]

How can the western tip of Cuba be at "high risk" while the Yucatan is at "low Risk"?

[boca]

Maybe their anticipating that the storm would ride up the Yucatan channel.

[Blown Away]

Interesting how North Carolina has a low risk, that is a bold prediction. I think you could pretty much default at least moderate risk for North Carolina and be right most of the time. The South Carolina moderate risk tells me a close brush to SFL from the east or a crossover from SW Florida up to South Carolina, like a Charley type track. The prediction looks like alot of activity around Florida and a strong ridge pushing systems into the Caribbean/Gulf.

[hial2]

do we have access to their previous forecasts?

[flightwxman]

Does anyone know how accurate they've been in past forecasts?

[hcane27]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/bizbaron/ ... hp?pid=422

[flightwxman]

Well, according to that, they seem to be quite on target most of the time. Kind of hard to beleive, yet the proof is right there...

[chris_fit]

Well, according to that, they seem to be quite on target most of the time. Kind of hard to beleive, yet the proof is right there...

Yeah, wow. Not bad!

Do they forecast how many storms each season? If so do we have a verification for those too?

[JonathanBelles]

What does the Pink represent on the map?

[flightwxman]

< 40% chance of landfall

[tgenius]

I don't know.. something about this map doesn't jive.. the west coast of FL has a higher risk than the east coast? So what happens if we have another Wilma or KatrinaV1? Or are they referring to direct impacts?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't know.. something about this map doesn't jive.. the west coast of FL has a higher risk than the east coast? So what happens if we have another Wilma or KatrinaV1? Or are they referring to direct impacts?

I'd say they mean direct impacts.

In my opinion, however, the west and east coasts of Florida have equal chances of being struck.
The highest risk should probably be SouthEast/SouthWest Florida just becuase during the 1920s-40s it was struck most frequently, at least by climatology.

[OuterBanker]

Low risk for NC, I'll take it.

[Blown Away]

Is the "Pink" the highest or lowest risk. I'm assuming the highest risk, because I don't think you could have SFL w/ moderate risk and Bahamas low risk. The N Bahamas would get clipped by most storms crossing over from SW FL.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like a Hurricane Charley or Hurricane Wilma Scenario for Cuba and South Florida if that prediction were to verify.