Are their early indicators of Bermuda High setup

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boca
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Are their early indicators of Bermuda High setup

#1 Postby boca » Wed Apr 18, 2007 7:21 am

This is more of a question for pro mets,I don't know the answer. The way the pattern is right now are their ways we can determine were the bermuda high will setup this year. Example in 2004 and 2005 the Bermuda high was in the Western Atlantic pushing everything that formed west into the US. In 2006 the Bermuda high was displaced in the Central Atlantic not allowing 95% of the storms that formed to get west of 60W. What will this year be like and are their indicators which help us out?
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BERMUDA HIGH

#2 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:37 pm

From what I remember reading. We really won't know where it's going to set up till July. Don't know if it's true but it does sound about right. Hopefuly it sets up like last year and everything heads out to sea. :roll:
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#3 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Thu Apr 19, 2007 2:18 am

I'm not a climatologist or a doctor or anything, just a weather enthusiast, but here's my 2 cents based on observing the seasons here in the Dallas area since I moved in 2002, which I recall as being extremely hot, but probably that's because I'm a transplanted Yankee. 8-) Either way dry air was king of 2002 in the Western Gulf, as evidenced by Lili's demise and the lack of anything forming locally at all.

2003 wasn't as hot, mostly mid-90s with high humidity and frequent thunderstorms. Predominant southeasterly flow, which I'm guessing was due to the dome of high pressure which was centered over the Ohio Valley, but it was placed somewhat to the north which kept conditions in the Gulf and Caribbean from really becoming optimal. We had an easterly flow across the GOM which brought us Claudette and Erika, but the upper level winds were too strong to allow them to develop very much. Later the ridge shifted into the North Atlantic which shunted Isabel into the Eastern Seaboard.

2004 was extremely wet during the spring and early summer. The upper level flow was always coming from the southeast suggesting a strong high over the Eastern US again, but with an active subtropical jet stream bringing us storms seemingly every day. I guess that the subtropical jet might explain why June and July saw no activity, but as the eastern CONUS high shifted to the Eastern Atlantic everything was ripe for Florida to take a shellacking as all the storms swung around its southeastern periphery towards the same target.

I recall 2005 being about average here in Texas, but I guess if the weather's NOT going haywire in Texas, then you know something really strange must be going on somewhere else! :lol: A once-in-a-lifetime atmospheric setup, I pray.

2006 I remember being very hot and dry. I attribute that to a ridge dominating the central plains which gave us Texans predominantly hot, dry southwesterly winds from the Mexican highlands instead of the moist southeasterly flow from the Gulf. All of the troughs that summer slid down across the Mississippi Valley and kept the East Coast and the Western Atlantic pretty much hurricane-free.

2007's been a heck of a winter/"spring" so far. This time last year we hit 100 but this year we've been lucky to hit 70 with all the fog and drizzle and rain and surprise Easter snowstorms... :roll: My guess? This will be one of those warm, muggy summers where Dallas feels more like a part of the Southeast as opposed to the Southwest. Ironically, Florida/Georgia/South Carolina will probably feel alot like Arizona for the next few months. Basically a trough in the middle of the country with ridges on both coasts, keeping Texas safe from any long trackers but vulnerable to homegrown tropical storms that form from the tail ends of stalled cold fronts. Seems like an East Coast year. I can say that because I'm not a meteorologist- No accountability! :D

Of course I don't actually have any idea what might happen in 2007. 1998 was another La Nina and was extremely hot for Texas and active all over the tropical map while La Nina 2003 was relatively mild both in Texas and in the tropical Atlantic as far as landfalls went. If snow in Texas was any kind of climatological indicator, I could note that Dallas saw major wintry events in 02-03 (sleet), 03-04 (snow), 04-05 (snow- record snowfall on the Gulf Coast), and nothing but a one-time freezing drizzle in 05-06, and that the extreme 06-07 winter might suggest that 2007 might be a real whopper season, but an amateur's spotty recollection of weather patterns over a mere four year period doesn't mean much and shouldn't be taken seriously.

The only thing I know for sure about 2007 is, there WILL be storms. There WILL be alot of them. And one of them WILL make landfall. Somewhere. :wink: Maybe the US East Coast. Or maybe Belize or Hispaniola. Who knows :?:
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#4 Postby boca » Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:55 am

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