A few things about the current Atlatnic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Overall, at least where I sit right now, the tropical waves are very weak. They are around 3-5 north tops with in a weak ITCZ. Even at "peak" periods, they have been weaker then the ones for the last few Aprils. Normally you have tropical waves moving into the central Atlantic by this time at leasted. Also a very strong TUTT over the central Atlatnic-Eastern Caribbean is deep into the tropics; Almost all areas north of 8 north from the African coast to the central Caribbean are above 40 knot shear.

Over the last month a trough has formed off the east coast, also a ridge over Europe. Which has been making a very warm spring so far for them. That has formed while a trough over the eastern Atlatnic and western Atlatnic off the east coast. The Bermuda/Azores high at 500-850 millibars is set at near 30-35 north/45-65 west. What is faverable or more so is the level of dry air so far. The latest is not a soild block but more of waves-pulses of dry air. Of course that could change, but that is a good sign.

What I think will be watchable is a Eastern Trough May-July, with a strong tutt for the central Atlatnic. I don't expect a very favorable start of this hurricane season, but as season go's on the low levels of dry air will help with the la nina to get it over normal. Also I would expect the Central Atlantic-tropical Atlantic to become more faverable as time go's on, based on the developing la nina. There is the SST's that are the coolest in about 5-6 years. So that has to be tooken into acount.

We will see how it develops.

[boca]

Matt your saying we'll have a slow start to kick off 2007 hurricane season. Wxman57 stated in a post weeks back that the A storm probably won't happen until August.

[Ptarmigan]

A late start means nothing. Some very active seasons had a late start. 2004 comes to mind.