SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

hurrican19 · #441 Postby **hurrican19** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 1:35 pm

Hang on, let me grab a :roll:

for the 92F! lol.. messin w/ ya jschlitz.. I *HATE* hot weather! Give me low-mid 60's anyday. It did top out @ 87F here yesterday, and is 84F right now. Thankfully the humidity is not bad right now!

JenBayles · #442 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 3:49 pm

What are the chances of the new activity from San Antonio to Victoria, TX making it into the Houston area this evening?

Extremeweatherguy · #443 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 4:22 pm

jschlitz wrote:Whoo hoo!! I Hit 90 for the first time this season - I actually topped-out at 92F yesterday. Summer is close!!

I didn't get quite that warm yesterday, but I did hit 91.2 this afternoon (about an hour ago). I do want to note though, that I believe the temperature was probably influenced by the sun hitting the thermometer for a few minutes. The actual air temperature was probably about 5 degrees cooler. I still do not think I have officially hit 90-degrees yet this year.

Ptarmigan · #444 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:18 pm

Some interesting weather patterns for Central Texas.

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225-300600-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE
339 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...

ANOTHER SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT TO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

THIS LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY PATTERN WILL SET UP A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. IF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOMES WIDESPREAD...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
VAL VERDE...KINNEY...MAVERICK...REAL...UVALDE...DIMMIT...AND
ZAVALA COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY WILL HAVE TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST.

ANOTHER SPRING STORM SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. FORECASTS SHOW YET ANOTHER SPRING STORM
SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE WEATHER EVENTS AS THEY UNFOLD IN THE NEXT
10 TO 12 DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES.

GO TO http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS

$$

Link

Looks rather interesting.

JenBayles · #445 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 5:46 pm

The activity to Houston's SW hit our Cap and pooped out. Will the cap hold with the UL low heading our way tomorrow and Tuesday?

southerngale · #446 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 6:08 pm

A low of 55° and a high of 85° - I could live with that all summer! 8-)

It won't last though.

JenBayles · #447 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 8:28 pm

Why are the major false echoes between Houston and Beaumont showing up on the HGX radar? Not there at all on the Lake Charles view...

Yankeegirl · #448 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 8:37 pm

I was just noticing that too jen!!

JenBayles · #449 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 12:20 pm

NWS just increased our rain chances to 50% for today. Will it happen?

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-011200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1211 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO BELLVILLE TO WHARTON
TO SARGENT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY IS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

#450 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 12:44 pm

I think that HGX was having problems with their radar.

NOTE ABOUT THE HGX RADAR: WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SIGNIFICANT CLUTTER
PROBLEMS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HAD A LLVL
INVERSION IN PLACE...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT CAN EXPLAIN EVERYTHING. WE
HAVE GIVEN IT AS MUCH SUPPRESSION AS POSSIBLE HERE IN THE OPS AREA.
TECHS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WE`LL SEE IF THEY CAN FIND OUT WHAT MAY
BE GOING ON WHEN THEY ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. SORRY FOR ANY
INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED.

JenBayles · #451 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:14 pm

It's trying to come our way! Severe Storm Watch just to our immediate west...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-089-123-149-157-175-177-239-255-285-321-469-473-477-
481-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0202.070430T1830Z-070501T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA COLORADO
DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND
GOLIAD GONZALES JACKSON
KARNES LAVACA MATAGORDA
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON
$$

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

JenBayles · #452 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:37 pm

Good Lord! Now tornado warnings for Washington and Colorado counties...

Extremeweatherguy · #453 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:39 pm

looks like this once dull-looking day may turn out to be quite an event! Should be interesting to see if those tornadic cells hang on as they move our way.

JenBayles · #454 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:41 pm

Hey - where IS everybody today?!

#455 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:31 pm

Looks like the cap has broken here according to Jeff's latest. Be on the watch for some fast development if that is true. Not a lot of Eastward movement in those storms yet, but it could easily change soon.

Extremeweatherguy · #456 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:40 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302023Z - 302200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE
HAIL EXISTS E OF WW 202. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON NERN FLANK OF LONG-LIVED MCS FROM
BRAZOS AND GRIMES TO HOUSTON COUNTY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING ON THE MESOSCALE AHEAD OF
MCS. AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS WARM AND QUITE MOIST...HOWEVER
RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPES TO AROUND
1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PALESTINE PROFILER SHOWS A
VEERING-BACKING WIND PATTERN WITH HEIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXCEPT IN THE 3-4 KM AGL LAYER.

AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/AND OR SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST E OF WW 202...THOUGH THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED ENOUGH SUCH THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Extremeweatherguy · #457 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:53 pm

I find it odd that there are currently no warnings out west even through radar is still indicating hail up to 1" in a few of the storms. 1" would be severe-sized hail.

update: now the max size on radar is 0.75". However, that is still severe-sized.

update #2: Now showing up to 1" again.

Extremeweatherguy · #458 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:09 pm

don't be surprised if the storm entering Harris county goes severe soon. It is currently showing a 100% chance of hail, 50% chance of severe hail and a max size of 1.00" on radar. That means that this storm is likely already severe or is on the very edge of becoming severe. Stay tuned for updates...

JenBayles · #459 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:23 pm

It just got BLACK here in Bear Creek and the downdrafts are hitting....

Extremeweatherguy · #460 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:27 pm

looks very neasty to my west! Gust front feature seems to be developing ahead of it.

SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

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