World's Worst Case Scenario

[sully_county]

I was talking to a psychic earlier this year about the recent surge in quake activity worldwide, he said La Palma was this year. Pretty creepy, the government may not even warn of the tsunami because evacuations would be impossible in most areas.

[Downdraft]

The island of La Palma itself is not slipping into the ocean and, it won't take a earthquake to generate the tsunami. La Palma has two volcanoes on it. One is active and named Cumbre Vieja. Trapped in the volcano are large volumes of water. The soil of the the volcano is largely pourous. What traps the water is ancient lava spills that are not pourous. Cumbre Vieja is an active volcano and during it's last major eruption the western flank began to sink towards the sea. It is believed that another major eruption MIGHT heat the water forcing it to push the flank away from the main volcano and it would become a giant landslide. The air bubble created by and behind the rapidly displaced water would generate the mega-tsunami. 6 hours after this happens the east coast of Florida no longer has to worry about hurricane landfalls.

Earthquake generated tsunami waves are only as high as the ground displacement of the earthquake. For instance if the ground rises or sinks 30 feet in a major quake the tsunami generated will be 30 feet. This is not true of landslide generated tsunami waves that can reach a height of hundreds of feet. This however, does not take into account the topography of the coastline the wave is approaching. Since the period of the wave may be hundreds of miles long, as the front of the wave approaches it land it slows while the rear is still racing to catch up this also generates height to the wave. A Yellowstone eruption would be a global disaster certainly and almost beyond rational thought for this country. I'd rank La Palma as having almost the same impact.

[Downdraft]

Absolute worst case scenario Yellowstone super eruption. Nothing else comes even close.

[Aslkahuna]

The height of a tsunami onshore is a function of the slope of the ocean bottom and the characteristics of the deep water wave as one approaches land. The 1946 tsunami that slamme HI had heights up to 56 ft while in AK it was over 100 ft high where it took out a lighthouse and yet no seismologist would estimate the upheaval in the sea floor in 1946 was 100 feet. The caldera collapse tsunami at Krakatau reached 135 ft and a deep water asteroidal impact tsunami could reach over 1000 ft high at coastal impact. As bad as a Yellowstone eruption could be, an impact of a 10 km or larger asteroid would be far worse. We could conceivably survive Yellowstone though in greatly reduced numbers-we would not make it through the impact.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

in Miami, the SECOND you hear of a quake, get on the Turnpike and race to Orlando where elevations are higher.

And race, I mean go the usual turnpike speed where doing 105 will result in you being the pace car

[JonathanBelles]

Have you ever been in that situation Derek? I will be riding I-75 to lakeland or Orlando even though I have less of a threat.

[Downdraft]

in Miami, the SECOND you hear of a quake, get on the Turnpike and race to Orlando where elevations are higher.

And race, I mean go the usual turnpike speed where doing 105 will result in you being the pace car

Oh, thanks Derek! We are still coping with the influx after Andrew here. I wonder if Disney would give discounts? Then again you could sit in Shamu's splash zone to get the feeling of salt water in your face.

[Downdraft]

As bad as a Yellowstone eruption could be, an impact of a 10 km or larger asteroid would be far worse. We could conceivably survive Yellowstone though in greatly reduced numbers-we would not make it through the impact.

Steve

Anyone got a calculator? Lets see....force equals mass times acceleration so a 10km asteroid weighs ?? and it's travelling at impact at lets say 39,000 mph. My calculator just had a melt-down.

[Ptarmigan]

The height of a tsunami onshore is a function of the slope of the ocean bottom and the characteristics of the deep water wave as one approaches land. The 1946 tsunami that slamme HI had heights up to 56 ft while in AK it was over 100 ft high where it took out a lighthouse and yet no seismologist would estimate the upheaval in the sea floor in 1946 was 100 feet. The caldera collapse tsunami at Krakatau reached 135 ft and a deep water asteroidal impact tsunami could reach over 1000 ft high at coastal impact. As bad as a Yellowstone eruption could be, an impact of a 10 km or larger asteroid would be far worse. We could conceivably survive Yellowstone though in greatly reduced numbers-we would not make it through the impact.

Steve

An asteroid that is 10 km or larger that hits Earth will be the worst disaster period. Many will die.

[windycity]

This disaster talk is getting depressing.

[Downdraft]

[quote="Ptarmigan
An asteroid that is 10 km or larger that hits Earth will be the worst disaster period. Many will die.[/quote]

Not many.... ALL. This would be an extinction level event. It happened 60 million years ago it could happen again and unfortunately with little notice. I think I read that NASA's budget for tracking and finding asteroids that cross earth orbit is less than 10% sky coverage.

There is one event that would eclipse even this. We know the universe is expanding out and slowing down. The big bang theory tells us this is the case and science pretty much confirms it. Now eventually the expansion will stop and reverse itself much like stretching a rubber band out then letting it snap back into shape. The main event would be when it all comes back together again. Depressing of course but something to ponder is, "how many times have we been here before?" Don't run your credit cards up just yet this one is a long time from now.

[Derek Ortt]

Unfortunately, the last time I went to Orlando in 2005, I ended up as the pace car. To make matters worse, I was driving INTO THE WIND. So many got extended stretches of ideal drafting conditions, while I burned nearly all of my gas tank

I 75 is not that bad, not even Alligator Alley (flow of traffic is about 80 there, only isolated 100 mphers... but the once I was on the turnpike during bumper to bumper conditions... and it was bumper to bumper at 95 mph)

[JonathanBelles]

bumper to bumper at 95 mph isnt that bad...its better than at 5mph.