SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

[JenBayles]

I can verify that EWG. Yikes! It's really pissing down and blowing hard!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Storm is passing now, but boy was that pretty intense for a day that I didn't expect to see anything. The gust front probably had good 40-50mph gusts along it as it passed through and this was followed by heavy rains, some lightning and occassional gusts to 30mph+ for the remainder of the storm (and continuing now). Overall a very good storm. I will be posting some video I managed to take of it later on.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-g8fhv-BuQk[/youtube]

[vbhoutex]

Nice storm, but definitely nothing severe here in the Spring Branch area. Lots of thunder and lightning(dog hiding) and about 3/4" of rain so far with more ont he way.

[Yankeegirl]

So you think we will get more rain overnight? We had a ton of rain here this afternoon!! There are still a lot of storms scattered about the state....

[vbhoutex]

Looks like another round could come in from the West later today. Right now I am leaning towards those staying N and W of us as they swing around the ULL as it pulls NE today.

[TexLady]

vbhoutex,

I noticed that you said your dog was hiding last night during the lightning storm, my poor beagle is deathly afraid of lightning/thunderstorms. Someone told me that if you rub the dog down with dryer sheets it is supposed to help. Supposedly, because of the dog's fur they actually "feel" the static in storms before us humans hear the thunder. Now, so far, I haven't noticed that this helps my beagle a whole lot. But, she is also very afraid of any loud noise such as firecrackers, gun shots, etc. So, I'm not sure it's the static that is the culprit, in her case. Nonetheless, I use the dryer sheet trick, if for nothing else than to make her smell "spring fresh". You might try this little "trick" if those storms get bad again, today. And if you do, let me know if you think it works for your pup!

[JenBayles]

Tex, one of my dogs was also scared to death of storms. With the first faint rumble of thunder, she would shake like a leaf and try to wedge herself into the smallest possible crevice in the house. I, unfortunately, made things worse by rewarding her behavior with hugs and 'baby talk.' According to The Dog Whisperer (Cesar Milan) learning to overcome fear is something a dog must learn to deal with by itself without human intervention. These are dogs; not human children, and their needs are entirely different. Once I ignored her pleas for attention, it only took 2 or 3 more storms for her to totally recover. Doesn't bother her a bit now.

[JenBayles]

Here we go again....

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
759 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
759 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS REGION
IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO GROVETON.
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HOWEVER THERE ARE
CONCERNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. SHOULD SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY HAVE SATURATED THE GROUNDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY OVER THESE SAME AREAS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORMS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

[Johnny]

Just got back from a cruise to Cozumel yesterday afternoon. For you warm weather fans, the weather was awesome....hot a humid! Come on summer time!

Anyways, we got a good inch and a half out of the storms yesterday evening. Shoot, (as Jen would put it) it pissed down for a good 4 hours with plenty of lightning and thunder. I thought it was 9 o'clock at night and it was only 7! It looks like we've got more of the same on tap today.

[vbhoutex]

None of the stuff to our NW seems to be building any towards the South at all. I'm starting to think that we are more stable atmosphere wise in this area than thought? I'm still leaning towards it missing the metro area to the North and West today.

[southerngale]

Wow, none of what y'all got last night ever made it to the Beaumont area. That's a first, huh? Y'all get soaked and we don't get anything. I'm glad though as I was out much of the day and night and storms would have messed things up.

NWS only shows a 20% chance of thunderstorms for us today and KFDM shows 30%

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like all the rain and storms are going to go to the north of us today... Im sure we will have another chance of rain later in the week....

[PTrackerLA]

We suddenly have a 40% chance of rain tomorrow and Thursday and the latest discussion out of Lake Charles mentions the possibility of heavier rain. We'll see what happens.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012031Z - 012200Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...STRONG
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THIS REGION SHORTLY.

LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM SAN ANGELO SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HOUSTON...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN THIS REGION INTO A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AS
SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TREND
TOWARDS SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEAK CAP AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER ERODES OVER THE REGION...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO CONFIRMS THIS WITH A DEVELOPING STORM OVER MCCULLOCH COUNTY.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. ACROSS
THE AREA...18Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 20Z SHOW SFC TO
3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150-250 M2/S2. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES.

According to the SPC, we might not be out of the woods yet. This evening could get interesting.

[Johnny]

I agree EWG. We didn't start getting wet till around 4:30 or so yesterday.

[Yankeegirl]

not liking the looks of the storms that are to our NW moving this way... wonder if they will hold together? Has anyone looked at the doppler lately?

[Stratosphere747]

This has to be one of the stranger patterns I've seen in awhile. Now there is a tornado watch for the far western areas. Still looks to escape Houston metro, but folks in the NW and far western areas might see some action.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... nado+Watch

[Johnny]

Tornado Watch has now been issued for our western counties till 11pm tonight.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif

[JenBayles]

I wondered if those little peeks of sun would destabilize the atmosphere enough to see some storms pop outside the feature that's been hanging to our NW all day. Wind has picked up some in the past hour as well. I see the Tornado watch ends with Waller County - right next to Harris County. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what pops.