SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Mid 80's and sunny this week

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Extremeweatherguy
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#481 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 01, 2007 4:25 pm

This is weird. According to the SPC watch box, Harris county is officially included in the tornado watch. However, this (and other) counties that are only partially in the watch are not shaded red. Is this something new they are doing? I seem to remember that whenever even a sliver of a county was under a watch, the entire county would be shaded. It just seems odd that they are including counties within the "box", but they are excluding them from the written watch.

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#482 Postby jasons2k » Tue May 01, 2007 4:46 pm

I've seen "slivers" be excluded in the past but what really confuses me is the counties on the western side. Kimble County is completely - 100% - within the boundries of the box yet it it excluded. Strange...

Also, it looks like the box - as a whole - is about 50 miles west of where it should be to me.
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue May 01, 2007 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#483 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue May 01, 2007 4:46 pm

Officially I am in the "box" but not in the shaded area... Go figure.... Still looks like the watches go far to the west of here... maybe some more storms popping later on? This is odd..... ? also, if the storms are going to miss the Houston area, why isthe box to the west and somewhat south of here? I mean logically if there is a cluster of storms in the middle of the watch box and they are moving east Houston is in the path? But the storms are moving in from the Bryan area, I still dont see why we arent included in the watch area? So many questions... My little brain is just spinning.... ?!
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#484 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 01, 2007 5:00 pm

we will need to watch and see if that cluster of storms up by college station spits out an outflow boundry. If it does, then that will likely become a focus for evening storms in our area.
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#485 Postby southerngale » Tue May 01, 2007 5:43 pm

I just got home and about to head back out. Is all that mess to the NW supposed to make it down here? I'm heading to the ballpark for the next several hours. I guess I'll tote my big umbrella around just in case.

You guys need to get this umbrella I found. I got tired of throwing away umbrellas after every storm because the wind would flip them inside out and break them. This one overlaps in the middle and is made in a way that the wind doesn't break it! I forgot what it was called, but it should tell you something about not breaking due to wind when you find it. It's worth a few extra bucks.


[web]http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=ksat&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none[/web]
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#486 Postby JenBayles » Tue May 01, 2007 6:04 pm

It's looking colorful all at once from Austin to points NE of there. Think it'll make it into SE TX tonite?
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#487 Postby Johnny » Wed May 02, 2007 8:47 am

According to Jeff's e-mail this morning, the possibility is there for us here in Southeast, Texas to get rocked overnight.
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#488 Postby Garnetcat5 » Wed May 02, 2007 10:13 am



I'm confused. It's tonight that the storms will come in...some people's date said Tues. Oh well..it's probably just me since I'm rushing around like a loon.
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#489 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 02, 2007 10:29 am

From Jeff:

Area will be under the gun tonight and Thursday.

Today:

Very moist and humid low level air mass is in place this morning with dewpoints nearing 70. Suspect phantom outflow boundaries reside over the northern half of SE TX from yesterday’s excitement. Northern counties were hammered with two rounds of severe weather and flooding rainfall. Basin wide amounts of 2-4 inches fell on the Navasota and middle Brazos Rivers and the rises are on. Surface heating combined with abundant moisture and possible left over outflow boundaries may spark a thunderstorms this afternoon. The RUC and NAM seem to think coverage will be somewhat widespread, but I have my doubts on this. Whatever develops today will be a small taste of the big event for tonight and Thursday

Tonight into Thursday:

Strong short wave over NM this morning will spread into TX overnight. All models are showing a potent MCS feature developing and plowing across almost all of TX overnight into Thursday. Strong lift will spread out of SE NM this morning into W TX this afternoon where surface heating will destabilize the downstream air mass over all of N, C, and SE TX. Numerous severe thunderstorms will develop over SW and W TX and congeal rapidly into a fast moving MCS. Latest guidance suggests a very large complex extending from S OK to SC TX overnight. Strong low level jet develops after dark feeding the storm complex with good moisture flow off the Gulf.

Expect multiple bookend vortexes to develop along the leading line producing bowing echoes and line wave patterns highly supportive of wind damage. Pattern does favor a long lived damaging wind event “derecho”. Main question is timing of complex and if it holds together to make it into the metro areas for rush hour Thursday morning. Given model data at hand, it would appear the complex maintains its intensity into and through SE TX however past experience always supports a weakening of such systems between 400am and 800am in the mornings.

Main threat will be wind damage along the leading edge of the line and weak tornadoes near any well defined bookend vorticies (meso lows). Complex may develop wake low features supportive of strong back flow winds behind main convective line (30-50mph)

Hydro:

Area is nearly saturated from heavy rains Monday and Tuesday and additional widespread heavy rains tonight into Thursday will not bode well for already flooding rivers and creeks. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 3-5 inches where the line slows and training develops. Totals of this magnitude over the flooded Navidad and Lavaca basins may result in rises to major flooding levels at Edna and Strane Park. Additional rains will also likely push the Navasota River above flood stage at Normangee and force the Brazos River over banks near Bryan. Downstream rises on the Brazos at Hempstead and Richmond may approach or exceed bankfull but should remain below flood stage. Problems are also likely to begin on the Trinity as upstream releases and run-off move southward. Widespread nature of this event will also likely bring the San Bernard River to bankfull or above.

A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for areas W of I-45 and for the northern counties this afternoon as rainfall patterns become defined in the guidance products.
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#490 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed May 02, 2007 11:59 am

jschlitz wrote:From Jeff:

Area will be under the gun tonight and Thursday.

Today:

Very moist and humid low level air mass is in place this morning with dewpoints nearing 70. Suspect phantom outflow boundaries reside over the northern half of SE TX from yesterday’s excitement. Northern counties were hammered with two rounds of severe weather and flooding rainfall. Basin wide amounts of 2-4 inches fell on the Navasota and middle Brazos Rivers and the rises are on. Surface heating combined with abundant moisture and possible left over outflow boundaries may spark a thunderstorms this afternoon. The RUC and NAM seem to think coverage will be somewhat widespread, but I have my doubts on this. Whatever develops today will be a small taste of the big event for tonight and Thursday

Tonight into Thursday:

Strong short wave over NM this morning will spread into TX overnight. All models are showing a potent MCS feature developing and plowing across almost all of TX overnight into Thursday. Strong lift will spread out of SE NM this morning into W TX this afternoon where surface heating will destabilize the downstream air mass over all of N, C, and SE TX. Numerous severe thunderstorms will develop over SW and W TX and congeal rapidly into a fast moving MCS. Latest guidance suggests a very large complex extending from S OK to SC TX overnight. Strong low level jet develops after dark feeding the storm complex with good moisture flow off the Gulf.

Expect multiple bookend vortexes to develop along the leading line producing bowing echoes and line wave patterns highly supportive of wind damage. Pattern does favor a long lived damaging wind event “derecho”. Main question is timing of complex and if it holds together to make it into the metro areas for rush hour Thursday morning. Given model data at hand, it would appear the complex maintains its intensity into and through SE TX however past experience always supports a weakening of such systems between 400am and 800am in the mornings.

Main threat will be wind damage along the leading edge of the line and weak tornadoes near any well defined bookend vorticies (meso lows). Complex may develop wake low features supportive of strong back flow winds behind main convective line (30-50mph)

Hydro:

Area is nearly saturated from heavy rains Monday and Tuesday and additional widespread heavy rains tonight into Thursday will not bode well for already flooding rivers and creeks. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 3-5 inches where the line slows and training develops. Totals of this magnitude over the flooded Navidad and Lavaca basins may result in rises to major flooding levels at Edna and Strane Park. Additional rains will also likely push the Navasota River above flood stage at Normangee and force the Brazos River over banks near Bryan. Downstream rises on the Brazos at Hempstead and Richmond may approach or exceed bankfull but should remain below flood stage. Problems are also likely to begin on the Trinity as upstream releases and run-off move southward. Widespread nature of this event will also likely bring the San Bernard River to bankfull or above.

A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for areas W of I-45 and for the northern counties this afternoon as rainfall patterns become defined in the guidance products.


Looks like another interesting weather pattern today and tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on it.
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#491 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 02, 2007 12:58 pm

Starting to crank out in West TX:

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#492 Postby JenBayles » Wed May 02, 2007 2:08 pm

At least I have a few hours to relax before getting glued to the radar once again. Hey, at least it's interesting!
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#493 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed May 02, 2007 2:45 pm

Did anyone else notice that the SPC had included us in their DAY ONE slight risk zone?

Image

And check this out...

BY EARLY TONIGHT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION OF A COLD POOL
WITH CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE. THIS WILL
THEN INCREASE RISK OF A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE EVENT AS THE
SHEAR/CAPE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE ALL THE WAY TO THE TX COAST
BY 12Z THU.

CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO A MDT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY OF
THE MODE AND TIMING OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT ATTM WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG SLIGHT RISK.


Could get interesting! :eek:
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#494 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 02, 2007 2:53 pm

interesting AFD from HOU/GAL this afternoon...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
231 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
MCS IS TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WILL
BRING THE MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME STRONGLY
DIVERGENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS PUSHES
EAST. PW`S ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND
THE STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA WILL ERODE AS COOLER 500 MB TEMPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVE EAST.
STRONG SHEAR AND CAPE
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE
WESTERN ZONES 00-06Z AND AREAWIDE 06-12Z. HIGH PW AIR AND STRONG
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. SPEEDY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL MOVING SO
EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY.

MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES HAVE A WAY OF ALTERING FORECASTS QUICKLY.
AT THIS TIME...DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL OF WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD
POOL WILL BE EAST OF HERE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR WHETHER AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EAST OF HERE
OR RIGHT OVER THE AREA. SINCE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ACCEPT THE CURRENT SOLUTION OF HIGH
POPS. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS. WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABUNDANT
UNCERTAINTY.

WILL MAINTAIN SLT CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY AS A WEAK S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SE TX
LIES BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER
LEVELS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX. HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES
FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER.
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#495 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed May 02, 2007 4:45 pm

Hey Jason,

I'm having a Deja vu event here. If you happen to see this in the next hour or so, throw up an image of the complex near Eagle Pass. Not sure if I'm believing what is happening again down that way!

Scott
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#496 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 02, 2007 4:52 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Hey Jason,

I'm having a Deja vu event here. If you happen to see this in the next hour or so, throw up an image of the complex near Eagle Pass. Not sure if I'm believing what is happening again down that way!

Scott



my thinking exactly :wink:


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
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#497 Postby JenBayles » Wed May 02, 2007 5:08 pm

What a difference a few hours makes. Sure got colorful from Del Rio all the way up into N. Texas. Wow!
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#498 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed May 02, 2007 5:13 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Hey Jason,

I'm having a Deja vu event here. If you happen to see this in the next hour or so, throw up an image of the complex near Eagle Pass. Not sure if I'm believing what is happening again down that way!

Scott



my thinking exactly :wink:


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no


Well...

It has lost a bit of its punch. But for awhile there, it was like looking at a mirror from
the 24th..
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#499 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed May 02, 2007 5:14 pm

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL AND SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022208Z - 022315Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AND SRN TX
BY EARLY THIS EVE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CORE OF THE UPR LOW SPINNING EWD INTO
FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTN. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WAS
OBSERVED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AT THE DEL RIO VWP...WITH
FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION SUPPORTING STRONG-SVR TSTMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS JETLET WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX.

DESPITE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING TODAY OWING TO A CANOPY
OF STRATOCUMULUS...AIR MASS HAS REMAINED VERY MOIST BENEATH 7-8 DEG
C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO
2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS. 18Z DRT SOUNDING
SUGGESTED A STOUT CAP EXISTS AND CONFIRMS THE MODEL DEPICTION OF
WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LATITUDE OF ABOUT
KDRT-KCRP. THUS...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS SCNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THROUGH MID-EVENING.

GIVEN AN INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY
FLOW ALOFT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION. DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AS WELL.
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#500 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed May 02, 2007 5:20 pm

Earlier discos had cited the thought that the energy may shift a bit more south than first projected.

Don't be surprised to see the SPC upgrade to a moderate risk.
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