SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[JenBayles]

Sh*t. I was afraid of that with the outflows. I saw the same thing on the local Fox station. Unbelievable...

He just said it again! "These storms are all moving NE and will go around Houston tonight."

[TexasSam]

The storm report list for Texas is amazingly long!!!

Texas Storm Report List

[JonathanBelles]

WOW this is a very long list.

[Stratosphere747]

Jason,

If you pop in, throw an image up of the complex near Laredo. It's the same complex that has moved down from the Eagle Pass area, and looking quite impressive.

[TexasSam]

At the moment if you were to print out the list it would be 113 pages!!!

[Ptarmigan]

Impressive storm I see. I expect they will be here around midnight to one in the morning. I saw storm report and it is long. I expect heavy rain and high winds.

[Ptarmigan]

Thanks Jeff. A serious event unfolding tonight across Texas. Sort of reminds me of the 1983 May severe weather event.

Did the May 1983 severe weather event affect Houston?

[Stratosphere747]

Latest from Jeff


SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for the NW 1/3rd of SE TX until 100am. The watch includes Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Madison, Houston, and Walker counties.

New watch will be needed later for the rest of the area.

Very impressive convective night over TX with destructive derecho over N TX and secondary derecho forming along I-35 near Austin. Damage reports over N TX are very severe with numerous mobile homes rolled and destroyed and countless reports of downed trees and power lines over roughly a 200 square mile area.

N TX bow echo has laid down a stalling outflow boundary just N of KCLL where incoming C TX MCS will track along and south of. Threat for tornadoes will be increased from Austin to KCLL to KUTS this evening where low level flow is backed along stalled outflow boundary.

Fort Hood radar is showing increasing rear flanking winds behind I-35 bow suggesting bow echo is starting to mature and high end wind damage threat (widespread 60-80mph) can be expected downstream over the N 1/3 to 1/2 of SE TX.

3rd MCS W of SAT may grown into yet another severe bow echo and plow along I-10 and S into the coast late overnight.

Flash Flood threat will be highest where stalling southern outflows train awaiting incoming bows to our west...may see at least two such events overnight.


Watchboxes with radar overlays:
WW0214 Radar

[Ptarmigan]

Latest from Jeff


SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for the NW 1/3rd of SE TX until 100am. The watch includes Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Madison, Houston, and Walker counties.

New watch will be needed later for the rest of the area.

Very impressive convective night over TX with destructive derecho over N TX and secondary derecho forming along I-35 near Austin. Damage reports over N TX are very severe with numerous mobile homes rolled and destroyed and countless reports of downed trees and power lines over roughly a 200 square mile area.

N TX bow echo has laid down a stalling outflow boundary just N of KCLL where incoming C TX MCS will track along and south of. Threat for tornadoes will be increased from Austin to KCLL to KUTS this evening where low level flow is backed along stalled outflow boundary.

Fort Hood radar is showing increasing rear flanking winds behind I-35 bow suggesting bow echo is starting to mature and high end wind damage threat (widespread 60-80mph) can be expected downstream over the N 1/3 to 1/2 of SE TX.

3rd MCS W of SAT may grown into yet another severe bow echo and plow along I-10 and S into the coast late overnight.

Flash Flood threat will be highest where stalling southern outflows train awaiting incoming bows to our west...may see at least two such events overnight.


Watchboxes with radar overlays:
WW0214 Radar

Knowing these storms that pass over Southeast Texas, they can weaken and stall out and dump heavy rain. I expect heavy rain tonight and tomorrow. I predict up to 6 inches of rain will fall.

[TexasSam]

Thanks Jeff. A serious event unfolding tonight across Texas. Sort of reminds me of the 1983 May severe weather event.

Did the May 1983 severe weather event affect Houston?

I think I remember that storm? The one I'm thinking of came through SW Houston like midnight, the wind blew so hard at my apartment on the ground floor that I had water coming in around the sliding glass door, and ant the upstairs appartment had about a 3 foot patio! most all the wood fences were all blown down west to east. all of them protable light up sighns were all over the place. When I went to work the next morning our computer system was fried. Side note about that computer you loaded the disks that were like 2 feet across and like 6 in a stack in a clear plastic thing on top. LOL how things have changed, I bet any good home computer would be 100 times better than that thing was.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST AND SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 030257Z - 030400Z

NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPR TX COAST
SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX.

00Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL AFFECT MOST OF TX NORTH OF KLRD-KCRP
OVERNIGHT...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW MIGRATING ACROSS
CNTRL TX. COLD POOL HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
INTO THE WRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM COLLEGE STATION SWWD TO NEAR KSAT.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND THE LIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ENHANCED BY THE NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ...WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT. H5 FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGELY LINEAR MCS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TURNING...BUT THE INHIBITION IN THE INFLOW LAYER MIGHT MITIGATE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE VICTORIA AREA.
HERE...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FARTHER S...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE LATITUDE
OF KCRP-KCOT.

..RACY.. 05/03/2007

[Extremeweatherguy]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-
361-373-407-457-473-477-481-031100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0215.070503T0320Z-070503T1100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO
TYLER WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON

[Yankeegirl]

Just got home from the kids baseball games... Good Lord!! I just got a chance to see the weather and I was like, holy crap, its going to be a long night!!! Everyone in the areas, please keep safe!!!!

[jasons2k]

Jason,

If you pop in, throw an image up of the complex near Laredo. It's the same complex that has moved down from the Eagle Pass area, and looking quite impressive.

Here it is. Sorry again for the delay - company in town - hehe

[Yankeegirl]

we are so going to get rocked later tonight..... Maybe i should go to bed now.... ??

[TexasSam]

I have a few thought about tonight storms...
Before you go to bed, turn off, and unplug your computer, and the modem. If it looks like your going to be hit HARD by the storm turn off your AC, and refrigerator, and any other things in your home that you would like to have after the storm. If the power does fail for anything over 20 min. When the power does come back on don't turn on the AC or anything for about 30 min. Everyone else around you will have there AC's and stuff coming on at the same time, and that causes power surges.

Good luck all. As Betty Davis said: "it's going to be a bumpy night!"

[jasons2k]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. The outflow is starting to outrun the storms now and they aren't developing quite as fast along the gust front. That shows the air is more stable than it was earlier (which makes sense since it's nighttime). Also the storm tops to the NW are slowly lowering. We'll have to see some fresh convection develop along the outflow to see widespread severe weather in Houston.

[jasons2k]

Trees down in College Station...

[southerngale]

Just got home from the kids baseball games... Good Lord!! I just got a chance to see the weather and I was like, holy crap, its going to be a long night!!! Everyone in the areas, please keep safe!!!!

I had a similar reaction. I've been so busy, I didn't even realize it could get this bad. I knew we had a chance of rain for tomorrow, but that's it. I was reading this thread, thinking WOW, when my weather alert went off - Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for us.

[Ptarmigan]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. The outflow is starting to outrun the storms now and they aren't developing quite as fast along the gust front. That shows the air is more stable than it was earlier (which makes sense since it's nighttime). Also the storm tops to the NW are slowly lowering. We'll have to see some fresh convection develop along the outflow to see widespread severe weather in Houston.

I expect a heavy rain event tonight.