ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

CPC April 23 Update



Above is the Climate Prediction Center weekly update and they have the conditions in the Pacific as Neutral.They say it's still possible to have La Nina in the next 3 months.Time will tell what will be the conditions of ENSO when hurricane season arrives and the peak comes on August,September and on the first half of October.I am leaning towards Neutral to maybe weak La Nina.

[cycloneye]

In a few hours the Aussies (BoM) will release their April 25th update.Let's see what will their comments be about the latest data for ENSO.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest update from the BOM (April 25 in Australia). Conditions remain within neutral status.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[JonathanBelles]

That pic at the bottom is awesome.

[cycloneye]

In Brief


Negative SST anomalies persist in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.

The SOI has a current (22nd April) 30-day value of approximately −12.

Trade Winds have generally been close to average in the equatorial Pacific in recent weeks, they are currently slightly stronger than average in the central Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been close to or slightly below average.

Many computer models predict further cooling of the Pacific during the first half of 2007, with some of the better ones predicting the development of La Niña conditions.



Above is the summary of the BoM 4/25/07 update that is posted two posts above this one.I am leaning towards Neutral ENSO during the summer with maybe a weak La Nina by fall.

[MiamiensisWx]

Lately, I have been wondering if we may not see a La Nina event form by the end of 2007. In the following graphic, note the persistent warm pool at the surface and subsurface west of 140W. In addition, note the relatively weak Kelvin Waves and weaker cool subsurface west of 115W. The coolest subsurface anomalies (and SSTs) are restricted to the eastern equatorial Pacific. The persistent negative SOI and other factors might be the symptoms or instigators of a weaker or non-existant cool ENSO event than originally prognosticated.

The cooler subsurface has been incapable of spreading west of 115W. Every Kelvin Wave has weakened as it pulsed eastward, and each westward push of cooler subsurface anomalies along the equator has been stunted further west.

[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.23.2007.gif[/web]

In the next chart for subsurface depth anomalies, note the growing warm pool in the western portions of the equatorial Pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... eq_anm.gif

Does anyone believe it is plausible that La Nina may not form?

[punkyg]

Maybe

[AussieMark]

so far whats been observed is warmer than what was forcast.

by this point we should of seen Nino 3 at about -1 or close to it if the models were correct.

its closer to -0.1 or -0.2

[Coredesat]

I don't think we'll be seeing any kind of La Nina if things continue as they are. Those warm subsurface anomalies just aren't going away, and the anomalies in Nino 3.4 aren't cool enough. Neutral conditions are more likely.

[cycloneye]

I dont see any progress towards La Nina by looking at the subsurface.El Nino 3-4 continues to be warm.Really La Nina is taking it's time to show up.As I said in my 2007 forecast that you can read at Tropical Analysis forum,I am not on La Nina bandwagon for next summer.

[canegrl04]

I think conditions will be neutral this year

[OURAGAN]

that means, 54,54% predict cool condition and 45,46% predict neutral condition.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anom. Update

[web]http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.3.2007.gif[/web]

[HURRICANELONNY]

After looking at that SST map. I think I'm moving to kansas.

[Nimbus]

No real cooling trend from a month earlier?

April 3
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

May 3
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

[Grease Monkey]

After looking at that SST map. I think I'm moving to kansas.

Don't take this personally, but i'm always all for someone leaving SE florida. Way too many people here.

[flightwxman]

No real cooling trend from a month earlier?

April 3
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

May 3
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2007.gif

The atlantic seems to be warming up quite nicely

Also, anomalies are considered departures from normal, right? So less of a cooler anomaly in the EPAC doesnt necessarily mean that SST's are not cooling down, wouldnt it mean that they are just returning to the average "cooling rate"?

Please correct me if Im wrong...

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml



All the ENSO Models are forecasting La Nina conditions thru November.To note,the period from March thru June is the most difficult one to predict due to the variables that occur at this time.

[P.K.]

Don't usually post my weekly update here but I will do this week. The figure is the weekly SST anomaly with the 3 month anomaly mean in brackets.

Week ending 6/5/2007:

Nino 1: -0.27C
Nino 2: -1.16C
Nino 3: 0.00C (+0.04C)
Nino 3.4: +0.19C (+0.13C)
Nino 4: +0.24C (+0.41C)

[cycloneye]

Still not a clear picture about if La Nina will be dominating during the summer months as the data shows Neutral conditions in the Pacific.El Nino 1-2 area is cool,while El Nino 3-4 is a little bit warmer.Let's see what the Aussies say later tonight when they will release their latest outlook for ENSO.