Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[flightwxman]

I think Im seeing a bermuda High pattern in the central/eastern atlantic with that model. That could easily change, im sure, but is that the current setup?

[tailgater]

5/2/07 12z GFS Loop



Phantom,spurious low here from the GFS.Nothing of interest in this 12z run.What I will do is to not post anymore runs until there is anything of interest or other models show this kind of scenario.

This time of year there's nothing else to watch, so post away, also the low that crosses over into the EPAC is pausible.

[cycloneye]

5/3/07 12z GFS Loop



I abandoned the Caribbean thing and I am now looking to the Western Atlantic scenario that GFS has with a low forming NE of the Bahamas this weekend going into next week.It deepens it a bit but the question is if it will be a warm core low or a cold core one.Also interesting to note that TPC mentions the formation of the surface low in the 2:05 PM EDT discussion.

ATLANTIC...
THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE ATLC DISCUSSION
AREA...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NW
TIP OF HAITI TO 27N73W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE/SWLY SHEAR TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SE CONUS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-75W. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOUR OR SO AS IT GAINS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TROUGH TO ITS W. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE LOW WILL BE GIVEN A KICK BY THE UPPER
STEERING ACCELERATING IT TO THE NE.

[SouthFloridawx]

EDIT:

Looking at cyclone phase page, a couple of different models handle this low differently.

The Canadian -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/69.html

GFS -

GFS has a couple of different lows out there at that time... I posted all three below.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 2/105.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/72.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/49.html

Nogaps -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/60.html

UKMET -
Probably one of the more interesting scenario's

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/90.html

[cycloneye]

I changed the title of thread to include Global Models,not GFS only.This is what I was waiting for,more models joining GFS.

[cycloneye]

5/3/07 18z GFS loop



In this 18z GFS run,the low is more weak than in past runs as at the same time moves NorthEast.Let's see what the 00z run from the GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET,and CMC (Canadian) models show.

[NDG]

:uarrow: I changed the title of thread to include Global Models,not GFS only.This is what I was waiting for,more models joining GFS.

Nothing personal, but I think you should had started a different thread with the low north of PR, the original subject of this thread was regarding the advertised low pressure by the gfs down in the Caribbean, which is still advertising.

[weatherwindow]

interesting stuff, nathan....twd advertising a rapid northeasterly motion...however as you note, both the cmc and the ukmet trap the low beneath a narrow ridge and slowly retrograde it to the wnw.....the ukmet certainly gets your attention huh:)....it will be interesting to see which models verify......rich

[weatherwindow]

good morning luis and nathan.....if you liked the 12z models, you'll love the 00z solutions ....the gfs now traps a fairly potent low under a ridge similiar to that described by the earlier cmc and ukmket models....and moves it west thru the central bahamas into the fla straits....cmc and ukmet both bring a significant cyclone to a positon just east of cape hatteras....nathan can you post the links(for some reason, i am unable to post a workable link).......rich

[brunota2003]

Interesting discussion from MHX (local forcast office)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
459 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...OOZ RUN OF MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP THE SHORTWAVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW ABOUT 400 MILES SE
OF CAPE HATTERAS ON MONDAY AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE
SFC CYCLONE MOVING E OFF THE SC COAST. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE
00Z OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT THE CUTOFF
LOW...THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT DEVELOPS THE CUTOFF LOW AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF AND PREFER
THE WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. EXPECT A WARMING TREND ON MONDAY BUT NELY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW HPC GUIDANCE
BUT NOT A COOL AS MEXMOS WITH GRADIENTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS THE GFS IS ADVERTISING AT THIS TIME.

[wxwatcher91]

The Taunton NWS AFD mentioned it last night:

GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG OCEAN STORM NEAR BERMUDA ON TUE AND UKMET IS
FURTHER WEST WITH STORM CLOSER TO THE SE COAST. HOWEVER GGEM...EC
AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH WEAKER SOLUTION FURTHER E WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM TUE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
AS SFC RIDGE SOUTH OF NEW ENG. MAXES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S IN
THE INTERIOR AND SOME LOWER 80S PSBL AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO 11-12.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC LOOP



Canadian 00z model loop

6z GFS LOOP



Above is the 6z GFS loop.

00z NOGAPS LOOP



Above is the 00z NOGAPS Loop.

00z UKMET LOOP



Above is the 00z run of the UKMET Model.

[bucman1]

Good morning Luis,

It looks like the nogap model keeps it further south off of Miami(for that run anyway).

Its already starting!!

[Noah]

Can someone post a picture of the area you are all looking at?

[tgenius]

If that thing can bring some rain, it would be more than welcomed.. I just don't see anything forming out of this.. but rainmaker... sure.. why not?

[punkyg]

Just on for a few minutes, but where is the low yall talking about?

[cycloneye]

The low is not yet out there.According to the models,it will form by early next week in an area well SE of Cape Hatteras.

[boca]

Being in Florida I like to see the nogaps solution verify, but I'm betting against it due to climitology pushing everything NE this time of year. We need the rain folks. The 06zGFS still has the Caribbean low around 180hrs and that low off of Hatteras.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

12zGFS looks to have that low off the Carolina's trapped and not ejecting NE ward.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

12z CMC Loop



The 12z Canadian model run shows the low moving west towards the coast.

12z UKMET Loop



The 12z UKMET model run shows the low moving northwest towards the outer banks and later ejects it NE.