Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic
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- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
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- Professional-Met
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
IMO, shear is way too strong for any depression to form. If shear lessens, then a tropical
depression or weak Tropical Storm is possible out of this. But for now, the shear
is too strong, I do not think we will see anything develop out of this.
I don't think Florida will see any rain until Early June. The pattern is unfortunate.
depression or weak Tropical Storm is possible out of this. But for now, the shear
is too strong, I do not think we will see anything develop out of this.
I don't think Florida will see any rain until Early June. The pattern is unfortunate.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145271
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
What I see after the 12z runs of the global models is that the low will be of cold core origin and not a pure warm core one.CMC is the most warm core low scenario model.Water temps in that area are not on the freshold to support tropical development and shear is not so favorable,but anything is possible.The only thing for us to do is to watch the future model runs and more important,when from next Sunday and beyond the low starts to take shape,what will it do in terms of movement,strengh and if it will be a cold core or warm core.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
This is a cold core system with a surface reflection dropping down from the US into the western Atlantic with the cold front dropping down, chances of it becoming tropical are slim to none, the waters are not warm enough, it will be lucky if it evens becomes subtropical. As far as movement, I hope it moves westward, to relieve our drought, but I'll doubt it, I hope if anything it moves further away from the coast, because if it parks itself just off the Carolinas it only means one thing, more dry air funneling down the peninsula and also more smoky skies.
I'll be watching the Caribbean next week instead.
I'll be watching the Caribbean next week instead.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145271
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
NDG wrote:This is a cold core system with a surface reflection dropping down from the US into the western Atlantic with the cold front dropping down, chances of it becoming tropical are slim to none, the waters are not warm enough, it will be lucky if it evens becomes subtropical. As far as movement, I hope it moves westward, to relieve our drought, but I'll doubt it, I hope if anything it moves further away from the coast, because if it parks itself just off the Carolinas it only means one thing, more dry air funneling down the peninsula and also more smoky skies.
I'll be watching the Caribbean next week instead.
GFS hints at some Caribbean stuff but let's see as the days progress if other models jump into it.By the way,if you want,you can make a Caribbean thread.

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cycloneye wrote:NDG wrote:This is a cold core system with a surface reflection dropping down from the US into the western Atlantic with the cold front dropping down, chances of it becoming tropical are slim to none, the waters are not warm enough, it will be lucky if it evens becomes subtropical. As far as movement, I hope it moves westward, to relieve our drought, but I'll doubt it, I hope if anything it moves further away from the coast, because if it parks itself just off the Carolinas it only means one thing, more dry air funneling down the peninsula and also more smoky skies.
I'll be watching the Caribbean next week instead.
GFS hints at some Caribbean stuff but let's see as the days progress if other models jump into it.By the way,if you want,you can make a Caribbean thread.
The euro is already showing lower pressures for the end of next week in Caribbean, I'll see what the CMC and others start showing tomorrow since they only go out to 6-7 days, yeah I may start a new thread, I feel fairly confident that something will form down there at least as an area of tropical disturbance.
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- cycloneye
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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 042014
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2007
.DISCUSSION...SSE LLVL FLOW HAS EVOLVED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
TWO LLVL VORTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SW ATLC...ONE NEAR 24N
73W AND THE OTHER NEAR 30N 73.5W. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE OPENING UP
INTO THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SE TO
SSE LLVL FLOW UNTIL THESE FEATURES LIFT OUT TO THE NE. THIS MORE
SLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ACROSS
THE NRN SLOPES AND NW P.R. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS SW ATLC AND INTO NW CARIB ATTM WILL SHIFT EWD OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ALSO YIELD ISOLATED
TSTORMS OVER WATER AT NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...GLOBAL MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THIS
INTERESTING SCENARIO BEST FROM THE OUTSET. A SIGNIFICANT S/W IS
FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND
PINCH OFF A STRONG VORT MAX OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT BECOMES
OF IT AS IT LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR SO. LOCALLY...THE
REPERCUSSIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN A POSITION
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION...AND
AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...S TO SE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND
CONVERGE IT ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. SO THIS STILL APPEARS TO
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE EXACT
EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
ATLC WILL HELP TO DICTATE WITH HAPPENS LOCALLY. WITH THAT...WE
CONTINUE TO FORECAST 50-60% CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THIS LONGER
RANGE...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.
THIS LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W ATLC WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG PERIOD SWELL TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
This is the AFD of San Juan of this afternoon that discusses about the low in the Atlantic.Read the second paragraph.
FXCA62 TJSJ 042014
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2007
.DISCUSSION...SSE LLVL FLOW HAS EVOLVED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
TWO LLVL VORTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SW ATLC...ONE NEAR 24N
73W AND THE OTHER NEAR 30N 73.5W. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE OPENING UP
INTO THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SE TO
SSE LLVL FLOW UNTIL THESE FEATURES LIFT OUT TO THE NE. THIS MORE
SLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM...BUT STILL WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ACROSS
THE NRN SLOPES AND NW P.R. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS SW ATLC AND INTO NW CARIB ATTM WILL SHIFT EWD OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ALSO YIELD ISOLATED
TSTORMS OVER WATER AT NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...GLOBAL MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THIS
INTERESTING SCENARIO BEST FROM THE OUTSET. A SIGNIFICANT S/W IS
FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND
PINCH OFF A STRONG VORT MAX OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT BECOMES
OF IT AS IT LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR SO. LOCALLY...THE
REPERCUSSIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN A POSITION
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION...AND
AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...S TO SE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND
CONVERGE IT ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. SO THIS STILL APPEARS TO
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE EXACT
EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
ATLC WILL HELP TO DICTATE WITH HAPPENS LOCALLY. WITH THAT...WE
CONTINUE TO FORECAST 50-60% CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THIS LONGER
RANGE...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.
THIS LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W ATLC WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG PERIOD SWELL TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
This is the AFD of San Juan of this afternoon that discusses about the low in the Atlantic.Read the second paragraph.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 2
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- Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
- Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041743
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W 1N35W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
25W-30W...34W-39W AND W OF 49W. A BROADER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FARTHER E S OF 6N E OF 18W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A SECONDARY SFC AXIS ANALYZED MOSTLY S OF
THE EQ AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OVER THAT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE OVER SE MISSOURI. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER SRN
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS OVER ERN LOUISIANA
AND SRN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN GULF
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-89W BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD
TOPS WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED WEATHER...ONLY
SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH THE GULF BEING ON THE MORE STABLE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE SFC PATTERN IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH
STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY E/SE 10-20
KT...STRONGEST IN THE WRN GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO AND THE S CENTRAL U.S. THESE SE
WINDS IN THE W GULF ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AS
LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIG PICTURE CONSISTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WRN
CARIB EXTENDING SWD FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARD HONDURAS AND A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CARIB WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED
JUST E OF THE AREA ALONG 60W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND EXTENSIVE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING AND DRAWING A LARGE SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ROUGHLY BETWEEN
65W-80W. WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE SWATH IS ONLY IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS...A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE
FIRED IN THE SW CARIB S OF 13W BETWEEN 75W-80W. AT THE SFC...THE
STRONG AZORES HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. THESE WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NW
CARIB...10-15 KT...NEAR THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE WRN ATLC ANALYZED FROM
THE NRN TIP OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO 31N73W. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
DEVELOP THIS TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. THE GREATEST CYCLONIC TURNING ON
VIS IMAGES IS NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WHERE THERE
COULD BE A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 30N74W. NEARLY ALL OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE
TROUGH SHEARED BY STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM 32N71W ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS
AND THE FL STRAITS. A BACK DOOR FRONT IS SLOWING SINKING SWD
ALIGNED E-W ALONG 34N. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THIS PART OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. THIS
HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES AND PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE BULK OF AREA...STRONGEST E OF 30W WHERE THE
PRES GRAD IS TIGHTEST DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES OVER
AFRICA. MODEST SAHARAN DUST IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS...E OF 28W DEPICTED BY AN EROSION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK AND A HAZY LOOK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N37W WITH A SWLY JET
BRANCH ON ITS S SIDE TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-40W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG RIDGE
NEARLY STACKED ABOVE THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE
WIDESPREAD TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE UPPER SLY
FLOW S OF 15N E OF 35W...ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
AFRICA...WHICH IS FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.
$$
CANGIALOSI
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1743.shtml?
AXNT20 KNHC 041743
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W 1N35W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
25W-30W...34W-39W AND W OF 49W. A BROADER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FARTHER E S OF 6N E OF 18W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A SECONDARY SFC AXIS ANALYZED MOSTLY S OF
THE EQ AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OVER THAT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE OVER SE MISSOURI. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER SRN
GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS OVER ERN LOUISIANA
AND SRN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN GULF
WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-89W BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD
TOPS WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED WEATHER...ONLY
SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH THE GULF BEING ON THE MORE STABLE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE SFC PATTERN IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH
STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY E/SE 10-20
KT...STRONGEST IN THE WRN GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO AND THE S CENTRAL U.S. THESE SE
WINDS IN THE W GULF ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AS
LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIG PICTURE CONSISTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE WRN
CARIB EXTENDING SWD FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARD HONDURAS AND A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CARIB WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED
JUST E OF THE AREA ALONG 60W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND EXTENSIVE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING AND DRAWING A LARGE SWATH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ROUGHLY BETWEEN
65W-80W. WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE SWATH IS ONLY IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS...A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE
FIRED IN THE SW CARIB S OF 13W BETWEEN 75W-80W. AT THE SFC...THE
STRONG AZORES HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. THESE WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NW
CARIB...10-15 KT...NEAR THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE WRN ATLC ANALYZED FROM
THE NRN TIP OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO 31N73W. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
DEVELOP THIS TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. THE GREATEST CYCLONIC TURNING ON
VIS IMAGES IS NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WHERE THERE
COULD BE A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 30N74W. NEARLY ALL OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE
TROUGH SHEARED BY STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM 32N71W ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS
AND THE FL STRAITS. A BACK DOOR FRONT IS SLOWING SINKING SWD
ALIGNED E-W ALONG 34N. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THIS PART OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. THIS
HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES AND PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE BULK OF AREA...STRONGEST E OF 30W WHERE THE
PRES GRAD IS TIGHTEST DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LOW PRES OVER
AFRICA. MODEST SAHARAN DUST IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS...E OF 28W DEPICTED BY AN EROSION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK AND A HAZY LOOK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N37W WITH A SWLY JET
BRANCH ON ITS S SIDE TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-40W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG RIDGE
NEARLY STACKED ABOVE THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE
WIDESPREAD TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE UPPER SLY
FLOW S OF 15N E OF 35W...ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
AFRICA...WHICH IS FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.
$$
CANGIALOSI
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1743.shtml?
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145271
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041959
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY STALLING AND DEEPENING OF
THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESP FOR PSBL MARINE IMPACTS ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDS...A GRADUAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPS THRU NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST. PCPN CHCS
LOOK MINIMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
PREVALENT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITIOR THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM FOR LOCAL
IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND PCPN.
Link
The above from Wakefield,VA discussion.
FXUS61 KAKQ 041959
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE COAST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY STALLING AND DEEPENING OF
THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESP FOR PSBL MARINE IMPACTS ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDS...A GRADUAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPS THRU NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS EAST. PCPN CHCS
LOOK MINIMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
PREVALENT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITIOR THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM FOR LOCAL
IMPACTS ON TEMPS AND PCPN.
Link
The above from Wakefield,VA discussion.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri May 04, 2007 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Professional-Met
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- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
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cycloneye wrote:What I see after the 12z runs of the global models is that the low will be of cold core origin and not a pure warm core one.CMC is the most warm core low scenario model.Water temps in that area are not on the freshold to support tropical development and shear is not so favorable,but anything is possible.The only thing for us to do is to watch the future model runs and more important,when from next Sunday and beyond the low starts to take shape,what will it do in terms of movement,strengh and if it will be a cold core or warm core.
Looks reasonable to me, cycloneye. Hopefully, this is nothing tropical. I don't have time t mess with any system until about June 20th. And I promised my boss no named storms until August.

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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145271
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
18z GFS Loop
This is the 18z GFS run,which has the low more weak and further east.Late in the run it ejects NorthEastward.



This is the 18z GFS run,which has the low more weak and further east.Late in the run it ejects NorthEastward.
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- weatherwindow
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per the 5/5 330am TWD....the TPC is tending toward the gfs solution, which is furtherest east...and put less weight on the 06Z nogaps, cmc, and ukmet solutions which advertise a west to southwest retrograde of the yet to develop low( loosely associated with the backdoor front progged to move offshore late sunday)....climo is certainly on the side of the more eastward solution and a slow ne motion......rich
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- cycloneye
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00z CMC Loop
Above is the CMC 00z run.
00z NOGAPS Loop
If NOGAPS verifies,Florida would get some needed rain.
6z GFS Loop
GFS has the low almost stationary while it weakens but not gets close to the coast.



Above is the CMC 00z run.
00z NOGAPS Loop



If NOGAPS verifies,Florida would get some needed rain.
6z GFS Loop



GFS has the low almost stationary while it weakens but not gets close to the coast.
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- AtlanticWind
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- AJC3
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Methinks the humble beginnings of the well-advertised coastal low are beginning to take shape just west of where buoy 41002 used to be.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray
Quite a bit of convergence going on in the CU lines in that area.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray
Quite a bit of convergence going on in the CU lines in that area.
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- cycloneye
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The floater of NHC is on top of the developing low.But this floater was in this position from many weeks back,not moved today because of the low.
Visible Image Loop of Floater

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