Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you very much cycloneye for the explanations! I love s2k!!!

[Opal storm]

Wow that would be crazy for something to develop this soon, but very good news for the drought in the SE.

[AnnularCane]

Wow? Maybe a tropical system in a few days?

I don't think it's really sunk in yet.

[cycloneye]

I modified the title of the thread,as now this thread is open to discussions and analysis,you can post images of the low and also the model runs.If and it's a big if invest 90L pops up,a new thread will be created.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know just looking at the upper level wind forecasts, I just don't see it. I could agree that we could see some type of surface feature... I just don't know about it becoming very organized. I know that windshear is reduced and will be reduced, but in 2-3 days it picks back up again. GFS is showing a lot of upper level winds in that vicinity through 120 hours...



Here is the 300mb Vorticity in 96 Hours from GFS
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007050512&field=300mb+Vorticity&hour=096hr[/web]

This upper level disturbance will likely cause the formation of a surface trough or low, but it would most likely be only cold core.

Here is the SLP at the same time:
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007050512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr[/web]

Look at this loop and you'll see what looks like a cut off upper level low, from a shortwave the passes by.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

OK...so accuweathers take on this is pretty much an initial blast of rain and wind for the SE coast then quiet as it moves east and develops then picks up again for the Carolinas as it moves back west....here is part of the blog and link.....interesting next few days to say the least...


The GFS solution that I show in the video is not the only idea as to where this storm will form and will go. The European model takes it toward Florida, for example. The 18Z GFS run forms the storm farther to the east and just carries it out to sea with only a rough surf threat for the East Coast. But the general model consensus is for the storm to wander out there for 24 hours or so and then drift back to the Carolina coast line early next week. Most of the models are showing the storm hanging out there for a while, too. So, it looks as though what happens is that there's an initial blast of wind and rain from the storm as it develops, then it gets quiet for a day as the storm wanders out there for a while (but the surf will stay rough), and then the wind and rain picks up again in the Carolinas when the storm drifts back to the west for a time

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 00&month=5

[punkyg]

OK...so accuweathers take on this is pretty much an initial blast of rain and wind for the SE coast then quiet as it moves east and develops then picks up again for the Carolinas as it moves back west....here is part of the blog and link.....interesting next few days to say the least...


The GFS solution that I show in the video is not the only idea as to where this storm will form and will go. The European model takes it toward Florida, for example. The 18Z GFS run forms the storm farther to the east and just carries it out to sea with only a rough surf threat for the East Coast. But the general model consensus is for the storm to wander out there for 24 hours or so and then drift back to the Carolina coast line early next week. Most of the models are showing the storm hanging out there for a while, too. So, it looks as though what happens is that there's an initial blast of wind and rain from the storm as it develops, then it gets quiet for a day as the storm wanders out there for a while (but the surf will stay rough), and then the wind and rain picks up again in the Carolinas when the storm drifts back to the west for a time

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs. ... 00&month=5

I saw that around 9am this morning. im just so excited that this could become maybe subtropical i believe.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Loop



I think I left out the 12z NOGAPS from the rest of the 12z run of the models that I posted on page 4 but here it is now.NOGAPS deepens it but does not turn it towards the coast.

[cycloneye]

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION/
STRENGTH OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THOUGH THIS
IS TO BE EXPECTED CONSIDERING ITS ANOMALOUS NATURE. IT IS QUITE RARE
FOR STORMS TO REACH THIS INTENSITY...THIS FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LATEST NAM-WRF SUGGESTS THE MEANDERING LOW WILL INITIALLY
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD...REACHING THE LATITUDE OF JAX EARLY TUE...
BEFORE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SC COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD RESULT IN A WINDIER DAY ACROSS ECFL...THOUGH STILL DRY WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LATEST GFS IS FURTHER NORTH AND NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM-WRF. IN TERMS OF CYCLONE PHASE...THE NAM-WRF
ALSO INDICATES THE CYCLONE MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE FROM AN ASYMMETRIC
COLD CORE TO A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE SYSTEM.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

The above afternoon discussion is from the Melbourne NWS office.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also it would be an interesting scenario, as the wind shear in the Southern and Western Caribbean relaxes later this week... its possible that a little something may pop up down there. What is interesting about that is:

This thread actually started by talking about a possible low in the Caribbean moving northward then out to sea.

GFS is showing another area even low pressure forming around the same time as that system is off the coast later this week.

If you watch the GFS loop you'll see the other area of low pressure form and pulls in our low that is off the coast and takes it out to sea.

I'm wondering what will really happen... This time of year we have to watch for tropical development emanating from the Caribbean and shooting off to the northeast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


[web]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif[/web]

Additionally if you have been watch the GFS @ 300-200mb wind heights, you'll notice a gradual reduction in wind shear in those levels, after 5 days. I know GFS after 7 days is a crap-shoot, but I think it's important to remember that if it consistently shows a pattern change then it should be noted. 250mb loop below

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

EDIT: Gradual Reduction in Wind Shear in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The NAM-WRF go warm core after being cold core.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have to agree with SouthFloridawx. I believe a non-tropical surface low will develop. Overall, there are few signs of a low-level circulation. The upper-air thermal environment only supports marginal subtropical characteristics. As the adjacent mid-level low (over eastern Tenessee) deepens, the mid-level jet may strengthen. As the developing offshore low is associated with a dry mid-level cap (north of a surface front), convective activity is limited. When the low ejects northeast, it will be moving into unfavorable dynamics for subtropical genesis. See this visible loop for evidence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

I would be far more concerned about Caribbean/Gulf tropical cyclogenesis. A persistent low-level anticyclone and light upper-level shear remains entrenched over the region. With lower pressures over the Caribbean Sea, there is a higher chance of development within this region.

[Hurricaneman]

imo, I dont think its going to be anymore than a coastal extra tropical storm

[ronjon]

12Z Euro fairly consistent with taking the low pressure into Melbourne and across the peninsula toward the southwest even showing a weak low in the SE GOM in 7 Days. I hope this pans out since it would be a weak system that could significantly boost the rain chances over a large portion of FL.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7050512!!/

[NDG]

12Z Euro fairly consistent with taking the low pressure into Melbourne and across the peninsula toward the southwest even showing a weak low in the SE GOM in 7 Days. I hope this pans out since it would be a weak system that could significantly boost the rain chances over a large portion of FL.

Yeah, the euro has sure been consistant in its past 2 runs with this scenario, that would be nice, but I'm afraid that at this time it is being bias in taking it across the FL Peninsula, not unless others jump on this scenario I'm not getting too excited, however the UKMET brings it fairly close to our coastline.

[cycloneye]

18z NAM Loop



Above is the 18z NAM run.It moves the low SW towards the coast.

[SCMedic]

That last NAM run seems like it would prove to be an interesting scenerio for us here in Charleston..

[brunota2003]

Lovely...regardless of whether or not it becomes tropical...the next several days here are going to be a MESS...here are the warnings up for Coastal NC:

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...

.THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND 25 TO 35 MPH
ALONG INLAND COUNTIES.

NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104-061000-
/O.UPG.KMHX.HW.A.0002.070506T1800Z-070507T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.HW.W.0002.070506T1500Z-070507T1500Z/
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...
ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...
VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...
NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER INCLUDING CARTERET COULD ALSO SEE WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$



Coastal Flood Warning

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH AND SOUND
SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

.THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OUTER BANKS FROM
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH AND WATER LEVELS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CARTERET...SOUTHERN CRAVEN...AND EASTERN PAMLICO
COUNTIES.

NCZ093>095-061000-
/O.UPG.KMHX.CF.A.0002.070506T1800Z-070508T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.W.0002.070506T2000Z-070508T1800Z/
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH WINDS DECREASING BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CARTERET...SOUTHERN CRAVEN...AND EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTIES.

AREAS THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO SOUND SIDE FLOODING OFF THE
PAMLICO SOUND WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCLUDE CLUB
FOOT CREEK...ADAMS CREEK...SOUTH RIVER...HARLOWE...AND HIGHWAY 12
NEAR CEDAR ISLAND. PORTIONS OF EASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY FROM
HOBUCKEN SOUTH TO ORIENTAL WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR FLOODING BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS AROUND
PINE CLIFF AND CHERRY POINT IN CRAVEN COUNTY ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS TO 4 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. DUE
TO THE LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS SOME PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST
CARTERET COUNTY ALONG CORE SOUND MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH MINOR
FLOODING. THESE INCLUDE HARKERS ISLAND...MARSHALLBERG...DAVIS AND
ATLANTIC...WHERE WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY BE
POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND SHOULD PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY FROM THE
RISING WATERS.

THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS FROM OCRACOKE INLET SOUTH
TO NEW RIVER INLET WILL ALSO RESULT IN A HIGH THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

$$

[canegrl04]

I'm not too surprised.Its been pretty da**ed warm and steamy in Texas now for the past week.Lots of rain.Next week will be no exception.Conditions ae right for something to develope in th GOM.Even if its just a TS,it could do great damage.Remeber Allison in 2003?

[JonathanBelles]

Is this it or is it not there yet?