Moderate Risk Again Today, May 6

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Moderate Risk Again Today, May 6

#1 Postby wx247 » Sun May 06, 2007 8:10 am

The craziness continues in many of the same areas today. :roll:
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#2 Postby snoopj » Sun May 06, 2007 8:30 am

I noticed that the MDT area was reduced in size from the previous Day 1 release. I think the cluster of storms left behind last night that are moving through NE Kansas, NW Missouri, etc may be a god send, as far as keeping the instability at a lower level this afternoon. It'll take a lot of daytime heating to erode any cap that gets put back in place after those storms move through.

--snoopj
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#3 Postby simplykristi » Sun May 06, 2007 8:41 am

I will take heavy rain over severe weather. It's raining heavily at my house right now. Also, lots of lightning and thunder occurring with the storms. Urban and small stream advisory for the metro KC area until 4 PM. I will take some pics as soon as the lightning and thunder let up.
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#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:06 am

That weak bow echo may be a blessing today...but then again it is still pretty early...best to keep an eye on current conditions.
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#5 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:10 am

Tornado warning for Waynoka Oklahoma right now.
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#6 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:10 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWEST MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 849 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER MAJOR
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF MAJOR AND WOODS
COUNTIES.

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:17 am

And it is only 9:15 am. Could be yet another long day...maybe expand the MDT and toss a HIGH in there?
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#8 Postby simplykristi » Sun May 06, 2007 9:20 am

KC was never expected to have much in the way of severe weather. The primary threat for KC is heavy rain.
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#9 Postby simplykristi » Sun May 06, 2007 9:21 am

I think that it is too early to tell.
Last edited by simplykristi on Sun May 06, 2007 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:26 am

Current CAPE values in Oklahoma are around 2000-3000 with an LI around 3.

I'm thinking today is Oklahoma's day for severe weather, maybe into North Texas as well.
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#11 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:36 am

I really feel we'll see that MDT shifted further to the east.
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#12 Postby simplykristi » Sun May 06, 2007 9:47 am

Tornado Watch for SE KS until 6 PM.

Flash Flood Warning for my county, Jackson, in MO until 3:00 PM CT. Parts of my county has received 2 inches of rain since 8 AM.

I will post pics later of the water standing in my yard.

My oldest brother and his wife are hosting people for her parents' 60th wedding anniversay today. The party will go on but the cook might get a little wet if the rain does not taper off before then.

Kristi
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 9:51 am

Yep, this was just issued...not PDS (which I don't think is needed now as the main threat is many hours away):

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SCENTRAL KS TO SWRN OK
CURRENTLY...WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO A
VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG
AND 25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.,.POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD...PARTICULARLY BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 920 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SCENTRAL KS TO SWRN OK
CURRENTLY...WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO A
VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG
AND 25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.,.POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD...PARTICULARLY BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 061417
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

TORNADO WATCH 243 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-191-205-207-
062300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0243.070506T1420Z-070506T2300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD
ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER
WILSON WOODSON


OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-035-037-039-043-047-049-051-
053-055-057-065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-105-107-109-
113-115-117-119-125-131-133-137-141-143-147-149-062300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0243.070506T1420Z-070506T2300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG
CREEK CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT GREER HARMON
JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MAJOR MCCLAIN
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TILLMAN TULSA WASHINGTON
WASHITA


TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-062300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0243.070506T1420Z-070506T2300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...SGF...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 243 TORNADO KS OK TX 061420Z - 062300Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNW CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 50WSW SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /51NNW OSW - 40WSW SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

LAT...LON 37919387 33689765 33680095 37919736

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 243 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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#14 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 06, 2007 10:46 am

Confermed tornado on the ground in Harper County, Ks. To be near Harper at 10:50.
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#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 11:08 am

Most are probably in a church right now so hopefully they have a plan...
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#16 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun May 06, 2007 11:10 am

We get the new convective outlook within the next 30 mins.
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#17 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun May 06, 2007 11:26 am

Latest OUN sounding shows cape values of 3490
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 11:27 am

Current conditions in the risk area and near it:

Kansas

Chanute - Overcast, 77 (66)
Dodge City - Partly cloudy, 60 (56)
Emporia - Thunderstorm, 63 (61)
Garden City - Overcast, 58 (44)
Goodland - A few clouds, 57 (39)
Great Bend - Overcast, 61 (61)
Hays - Overcast, 59 (57)
Hutchison - Thunderstorm, 68 (64)
Manhattan - Overcast, 67 (60)
Salina - Overcast, 65 (60)
Topeka - Thunderstorm, 63 (60)
Wichita - Light rainshower, 71 (66)

Missouri

Joplin - Overcast, 81 (67)
Kansas City - Light rainshower, 63 (59)
Sedalia - Overcast, 79 (69)
Springfield - Partly cloudy, 80 (67)

Nebraska

Hastings - A few clouds, 66 (58)
Lincoln - Overcast, 64 (62)
North Platte - Sunny, 56 (42)
Omaha - Overcast, 64 (60)

Oklahoma

Ada - Overcast, 75 (72)
Ardmore - Overcast, 72 (70)
Chickasha - Mostly cloudy, 82 (75)
Clinton - Partly cloudy, 78 (68)
Enid - Overcast, 76 (70)
Guymon - A few clouds, 65 (40)
Lawton - A few clouds, 79 (70)
McAlester - Mostly cloudy, 79 (67)
Muskogee - Overcast, 81 (69)
Oklahoma City - Overcast, 78 (70)
Stillwater - Overcast, 77 (70)
Tulsa - Overcast, 81 (67)

Texas

Abilene - Sunny, 80 (68)
Amarillo - A few clouds, 64 (42)
Childress - Overcast, 72 (66)
Dallas - Partly cloudy, 79 (68)
Sherman - Partly cloudy, 77 (66)
Wichita Falls - A few clouds, 81 (72)
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#19 Postby wx247 » Sun May 06, 2007 12:22 pm

We're sitting at 85 here, with a couple of towering cumulus developing off to my SW confirmed by some new echoes on radar.
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun May 06, 2007 12:43 pm

I think the main area to watch is western Oklahoma and Texas just south of the Panhandle.
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