Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[skysummit]

Aren't naked swirls pretty! This reminds me a couple storms last year when the low level circulation and mid level circulation became disconnected and all we saw was a naked swirl for a couple days.

[Nimbus]

The ocean SST is only about 69 degrees near the center of the storm.

Looking at the WV loop you can see convection rising near the center almost like a warm core system?

[cycloneye]

Here is the new dvorak T number update at 11:45 UTC:

07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[tgenius]

So the system is moving to the South.. well perhaps it will drop a bit of rain on Northern Florida.. last night we got a pretty decent rainstorm.. lasted about 1-2 hours here in Miami.

[HURAKAN]

Question: What subtropical characteristics is Dvorak seeing on this system which clearly looks extratropical?

The only subtropical about this storm is that it formed in the subtropics!!!

[skysummit]

Here's the surface at 7:39am CDT:

[cycloneye]

[jdray]

The 00Z CMC and 06Z GFS are agreeing now with the UKMet/NOGAPS/Euro.

The NOGAPS & EURO have been persistent for 4-5 runs now that its heading SW into Florida.

Bring the rain!!!!!




Of course, I don't want to see 60mph winds, just 15-20 with tons of rain.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Floater 4 is over the low.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A Poem for our Subtropical Entity:

Hello Subtropical Andrea!!
Thou art beautiful this morning on thy
satellite picture!
Come hither to me and bring me some heavy
rain my yard needs it really bad

oh but Andrea, don't give me
60 mph winds, as it is in thy nature
as a subtropical entity to do, I just want the
rainbands with some good
drought busting rains.

Wilt Thou bringest Me some
good rain ere long???

[jdray]

Any bets on how long till we have Andrea?

[Grease Monkey]

oh but Andrea, don't give me
60 mph winds, as it is in thy nature
as a subtropical entity to do, I just want the
rainbands with some good
drought busting rains.

Wilt Thou bringest Me some
good rain ere long???

Come on. Don't be so picky. You have to take the good with the bad.

Anyways, I don't see how this system really has a chance with all that dry air.

[shortwave]

Is the standard now to name sub-tropicals? Thought i had heard they might do that, but wasn't to sure about the details. Regardless this backdoor Nor`Easter will be a much welcomed visitor. Thinking only way for warm core transition is for it to sitt right over the gs for two days, nothing else to work with temp wise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Come on. Don't be so picky. You have to take the good with the bad.

Anyways, I don't see how this system really has a chance with all that dry air.

I know. Some rain would be very nice.

I say we have a subtropical storm within 12 hours
It's already looking subtropical on satellite
And the Dvorak T number as well as floater
indicate it may be subtropical,
as well as bouys reporting
sustained tropical storm force
winds in its vicinity.

[tgenius]

So it looks like the low/storm will be coming in the coast of GA/FL border from the models.. shame it can't go due south to get some more rain for south FL

[Thunder44]

Is the standard now to name sub-tropicals? Thought i had heard they might do that, but wasn't to sure about the details. Regardless this backdoor Nor`Easter will be a much welcomed visitor. Thinking only way for warm core transition is for it to sitt right over the gs for two days, nothing else to work with temp wise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Yes, TPC names sub-tropical storms too. They have been doing that past several years.

[Thunder44]

Come on. Don't be so picky. You have to take the good with the bad.

Anyways, I don't see how this system really has a chance with all that dry air.

I know. Some rain would be very nice.

I say we have a subtropical storm within 12 hours
It's already looking subtropical on satellite
And the Dvorak T number as well as floater
indicate it may be subtropical,
as well as bouys reporting
sustained tropical storm force
winds in its vicinity.

Yeah, but the surface analysis still shows stationary front in the area, so it can't be classified sub-tropical yet.

[MusicCityMan]

I hope it moves a bit further south.. Not 2 be greedy but even after the severe weather yesterday.. I need more rain too..

Come on.. let a wanna be weak Andrea form and let her bring the rain..

[dixiebreeze]

From the 8 a.m. NHC update -- if already posted, I apologize:

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE....ANALYZED 998 MB NEAR 33N72W. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SWD FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY
WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH MIAMI RADAR AND
LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT TSTMS ARE MORE SCATTERED BETWEEN SFL AND
THE SE BAHAMAS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE SEAS AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA AS DESCRIBED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL
PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS
WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE VERY LARGE N/NE SWELL EVENT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE
DETAILS. FARTHER E...A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N62W ATTACHED
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE MAINLY E OF THE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-61W.

[MusicCityMan]

Thanks for the NHC excerpt Dixie.. Would that "storm warning"? be a Gale warning or what is that?