Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for the NHC excerpt Dixie.. Would that "storm warning"? be a Gale warning or what is that?

A storm warning on the Beaufort scale means winds of 55-63 mph
sustained
Gale warning = 40-54 mph

[MusicCityMan]

Thank you TB.. By the way, how's the weather in St Pete today? lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you TB.. By the way, how's the weather in St Pete today? lol

Sunny and Windy...looks like
sustained winds near 20 with gusts
to 30 or so

I think we see a subtropical storm andrea
drift and strike
the coastline of the SE
with a large swath of rain and wind
especially NE of center.

[NDG]

The 00Z CMC and 06Z GFS are agreeing now with the UKMet/NOGAPS/Euro.

The NOGAPS & EURO have been persistent for 4-5 runs now that its heading SW into Florida.

Bring the rain!!!!!




Of course, I don't want to see 60mph winds, just 15-20 with tons of rain.

For the last day or two I have been really doubting the GFS because the only two that were backing it up were the CMC and the BAM, the BAM & CMC do horribly past 72 hrs most times.

[MusicCityMan]

Well.. hopefully then if the storm is drifting SW or SSW or even WSW it drops a lot of rain wherever it goes..

[dixiebreeze]

In the last Floater frame the swirl looks to be tightening up somewhat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float4.html

Not sure if this is the latest, but I'm impressed with the Dvorak numbers:

07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[MusicCityMan]

Dixie, since u have 90 L on the end of that... doesn't that make it like a tropical/sub tropical system? I know.. stupid question {prepares 4 bashing lol}

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, the NRL has chosen not to classify this as an INVEST, so it's only SAB.

[Chacor]

Okay, this is a little old, but...
From the 2:18 am EDT Marine weather discussion:

SW N ATLC...
WELL ADVERTISED STORM FORCE SYSTEM DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA WITH
ESTIMATED 998 MB SFC LOW...4 MB DEEPER THEN THE 6 HR FCST OF
THE GFS...NEAR 33.5N73W. BUOY 41001 E OF CAPE HATTERAS REPORTING
36 FT SEAS ATTM. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CUTTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH 31N71W TO THE E-CENTRAL FL
COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AND IS USHERING IN GALES OVER THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH GALES HAVE YET TO REACH BUOY
41010. SHORT TERM FCST OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL HANDLING THE
ONSET OF THE HIGHER SEAS BETTER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE
NWW3 AND WILL GO WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IN THE FCST. AS FOR
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM NWP MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS WITH
THE NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW WSWWD ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC INTO E-CENTRAL FL BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE NAM/CMC/GFS TURN
THE SYSTEM NNWWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z THU. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER SUITE OF MODELS WHICH ESSENTIALLY MOVES THE
SYSTEM ALONG 31N AND THEREFORE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS 30M AND NAM 975 MB
WINDS SUGGESTS STORM FORCE WINDS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRUSH THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE W QUADRANT OF THE
WWD MOVING LOW. BASED ON THIS WILL GO WITH A STORM WARNING FOR
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG GALE ELSEWHERE N OF 28N W OF 74W. WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE TUE AS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SE COAST. SLY GALES
CONTINUE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA INTO WED AS WELL THEN SUBSIDE
THU INTO FRI. LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
ALL BETS ARE OFF SHOULD THE LOW TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM.

[dixiebreeze]

Dixie, since u have 90 L on the end of that... doesn't that make it like a tropical/sub tropical system? I know.. stupid question {prepares 4 bashing lol}

It would seem so, but probably a preliminary guesstimate until an invest is posted by NHC/NRL

[Chacor]

Dixie, since u have 90 L on the end of that... doesn't that make it like a tropical/sub tropical system? I know.. stupid question {prepares 4 bashing lol}

It would seem so, but probably a preliminary guesstimate until an invest is posted by NHC/NRL

SAB does like to classify some systems that the NRL/JTWC refuse to track. For example, last season we had one such one in the CPac. And earlier in March it called a SWIndian storm "99S" despite no mention from JTWC.

[Patrick99]

Whatever it is or may turn into, it looks better than plenty of tropical storms I've seen. Including "Ernesto The Emasculated," 2006.

[rainydaze]

From the NHC Discussion

IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

Can someone explain what caputure fetch means? Thanks

[wxman57]

From the NHC Discussion

IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

Can someone explain what caputure fetch means? Thanks

Read here:
http://www.bigwaveshawaii.com/allabout_whybig.htm

[rainydaze]

From the NHC Discussion

IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH...AS THE STORM MOVES SSW IT WILL PROMOTE A CAPTURE FETCH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.

Can someone explain what caputure fetch means? Thanks

Read here:
http://www.bigwaveshawaii.com/allabout_whybig.htm

Thank You! I'm going to take the kids to the beach later this evening to see the big waves.

[kevin]

In the nhc satellite page, it says above floater 4 "Subtropical System"

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

We are supposed to go to Disney World on Friday, May 11th. Is it looking like it is goign to be a bust because of this?

[jdray]

NWS says 6-8 foot with possible 10+ breakers for most of Florida's east coast.


Grab a board if you dare

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwamap-prd/wwat ... 20advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-081200-
/O.CON.KJAX.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070509T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
413 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...


ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND IS
INTERACTING WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENT THREAT... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT
AREA BEACHES TODAY.

SURF THREAT...SURF WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY WITH 6 TO
8 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. BREAKERS OF UP TO 10
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKERS AT SOME INLETS AND
PASSAGES ALONG THE INTRA- COASTAL WATERWAY INCLUDING ST ANDREWS
SOUND.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

FLZ068-072-074-080200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.W.0001.070508T0000Z-070508T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.SU.Y.0001.070507T1800Z-070509T0000Z/
PALM BEACH EASTERN-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SWELLS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM THE PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACH
PATROL INDICATED SWELLS REACHING THE COAST WERE ALREADY IN THE 4
TO 6 FEET RANGE BY MID MORNING TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL POINT TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA... PRODUCING A LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL WHICH WILL RAPIDLY
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SWELL
HEIGHTS COULD REACH TO NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET WITH A LONG PERIOD ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST WITH A SLIGHTLY SMALLER SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FEET
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIAMI- DADE AND BROWARD COASTS ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 15 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST AND 10 FEET OR
HIGHER ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

[HURAKAN]

Looks beautiful.

[Stormavoider]

I like this loop. Don't click if you are on dial-up.
nasa