Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

The storm is really big!!!

[HURAKAN]

I like this loop. Don't click if you are on dial-up.
nasa

Yes, looks really cool. Lets see if thunderstorm activity can develop over the center.

[cycloneye]

In the nhc satellite page, it says above floater 4 "Subtropical System"

Yup.Here is the link to the Floaters page.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[Damar91]

The last couple of hours or so seem to show a little bit more shower activity near the "center". Also seems to be detaching itself from the "arm" of the low. Just an observation.

[JonathanBelles]

Wow it looks better compared to this morning.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 2:05 PM
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRES
CENTER OFF THE SE OF UNITED STATES. A 998 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON
THE 12Z MAP NEAR 32N73W. THIS STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N38W THEN CONTINUES SW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER W-CENTRAL CUBA. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS
AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL ADVISORIES
AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BEYOND THE CAROLINAS WHERE ROUGH SURF AND VERY
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
SE COAST OF U.S. TUE THROUGH WED...RAINFALL WILL BE ALSO A
CONCERN. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1746.shtml?

[MusicCityMan]

Maybe it'll gain some subtropical characteristics and earn itself a name.. That'd put the season into overtime as it would start early

[cycloneye]

07/1745 UTC 31.6N 73.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

This afternoon's dvorak T Number update.

[Coredesat]

I should note that those are Herbert-Poteat numbers, not Dvorak numbers.

The system is still extratropical, but it does look a lot better. Perhaps I will be eating crow (though perhaps not, because I said this would not do anything for a couple days, and it isn't subtropical yet).

[skysummit]

Poor thing is like an oasis in a desert.

[Patrick99]

Funny, it's an impressive looking storm, but there's just not a lot of "weather" associated with it....

[PerfectStorm]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtge ... %20warning

Interesting Hurricane Wind Warning for offshore area east of SC/NC Gulfstream Waters.
ANZ086-072030-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W
1030 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR 33.3N 76.7W...33.7N 76.6W...35N
75.3W...

.THIS AFTERNOON...N TO NE WINDS 40 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT 55 TO 70 KT
FROM THE GULF STREAM E EARLY...DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT
LATE...EXCEPT 45 TO 60 KT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 14 TO 24
FT...EXCEPT 24 TO 38 FT FROM THE GULF STREAM E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBY BELOW 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT
LATE...EXCEPT TO 35 TO 45 KT FROM THE GULF STREAM W. SEAS
BECOMING 18 TO 28 FT... HIGHEST NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE...WINDS BECOMING E TO NE 25 TO 35 KT THROUGHOUT...HIGHEST
SW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 13 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST SW NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST
SW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 16 FT...HIGHEST SW NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...WINDS DIMINISHING TO E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST W.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT.
$$

[Coredesat]

Again, due to the tight pressure gradient. Looks like the winds will subside as the low moves away from the ridge.

[Fego]

Why it is a subtropical system?

[MusicCityMan]

Because it has some subtropical characteristics I would guess? lol

[Thunder44]

Take look at this image taken earlier from NOAA. They are also calling this a "subtropical cyclone":

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html

[hial2]

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html

Can the smoke from the Georgia fires affect the system????

[hawkeh]

Should be interesting down here tomorrow. Got the day off to go surfing, there calling for double to triple overhead

I'll take some pictures for sure.

[Thunder44]

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html

Can the smoke from the Georgia fires affect the system????

I don't think so.

[Opal storm]

Any bets on how long till we have Andrea?

Not anytime soon.

This thing is just a swirl of dry air.I don't think it will have time to become anything before going inland over FL/GA.