
Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic
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- wxman57
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FYI, NHC has tentatively scheduled a recon for TOMORROW as the center nears the coast. If they were going to take a peek at it, why not yesterday or today?
NOUS42 KNHC 081330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOUS42 KNHC 081330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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- dixiebreeze
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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- cycloneye
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WONT41 KNHC 081346
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Looking at the 0600Z cyclonephase diagrams, NAM seems to have it as a borderline warm-core/cold-core system...
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07050806/1.phase1.png[/web]
The GFS is saying cold-core...
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07050806/8.phase1.png[/web]
UKMet suggests it was fully warm-core some time earlier but is now cold-core.
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07050806/10.phase1.png[/web]
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07050806/1.phase1.png[/web]
The GFS is saying cold-core...
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07050806/8.phase1.png[/web]
UKMet suggests it was fully warm-core some time earlier but is now cold-core.
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07050806/10.phase1.png[/web]
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- wxman57
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Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Interesting Insight by the NHC this morning...I think recon
will find Tropical Storm Force winds
It "looks" warm-core but it seems NHC says
it's nontropical currently so it's probably
still coldcore
There's no question it had winds of 50-60 kts yesterday, and 30-35 kts today. But with the high center to the northeast continuing to move out to sea, the gradient should continue to drop and the winds decrease. The only thing that could keep the winds up to 35 kts by tomorrow would be if convection fires near the center and it begins a transistion to warm-core. That'll be hard to do with all the cool, dry air flowing into it.
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A ship 40 miles W of where I see the low pressure center is reporting steady N winds of 35 knots, steady 42 knots a couple of hours ago, pressure of 1003 MB, for being so close to the storm center winds are fairly strong if this was a non-subtropical system. They should come pretty close to each other in a few hours, and lets see what kind of winds are on the east side.
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- cycloneye
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Thread is now locked.Continue the discussions at the Invest 90L thread.
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