Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

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gtalum
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#381 Postby gtalum » Tue May 08, 2007 8:37 am

Wow, 19 pages for a Low. I love S2K! :D
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#382 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 08, 2007 8:38 am

FYI, NHC has tentatively scheduled a recon for TOMORROW as the center nears the coast. If they were going to take a peek at it, why not yesterday or today?

NOUS42 KNHC 081330

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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#383 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue May 08, 2007 8:41 am

Is it possible they think it might intensify some when the "center" reaches the Gulf Stream, thus the Recon flight?
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#384 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 08, 2007 8:43 am

Considering the improvement the low made yesterday, the flight should have been scheduled for this afternoon. Nevertheless, as the storm center nears the Gulf Stream, the shower activity should increase. Therefore, tomorrow morning it should be better organized.
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#385 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue May 08, 2007 8:47 am

I think we see Andrea as it nears the Gulf Stream
with the warmer SSTs, even if Andrea only lives
for 4-6 hours.
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#386 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2007 8:48 am


WONT41 KNHC 081346
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#387 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue May 08, 2007 8:50 am

Interesting Insight by the NHC this morning...I think recon
will find Tropical Storm Force winds

It "looks" warm-core but it seems NHC says
it's nontropical currently so it's probably
still coldcore
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#388 Postby Chacor » Tue May 08, 2007 8:54 am

As far as I can see, neither NRL nor FNMOC have declared an invest yet.
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#389 Postby Chacor » Tue May 08, 2007 8:58 am

Looking at the 0600Z cyclonephase diagrams, NAM seems to have it as a borderline warm-core/cold-core system...

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/archive/07050806/1.phase1.png[/web]

The GFS is saying cold-core...

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07050806/8.phase1.png[/web]

UKMet suggests it was fully warm-core some time earlier but is now cold-core.

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07050806/10.phase1.png[/web]
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#390 Postby wxman57 » Tue May 08, 2007 9:06 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Interesting Insight by the NHC this morning...I think recon
will find Tropical Storm Force winds

It "looks" warm-core but it seems NHC says
it's nontropical currently so it's probably
still coldcore


There's no question it had winds of 50-60 kts yesterday, and 30-35 kts today. But with the high center to the northeast continuing to move out to sea, the gradient should continue to drop and the winds decrease. The only thing that could keep the winds up to 35 kts by tomorrow would be if convection fires near the center and it begins a transistion to warm-core. That'll be hard to do with all the cool, dry air flowing into it.
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#391 Postby NDG » Tue May 08, 2007 9:07 am

A ship 40 miles W of where I see the low pressure center is reporting steady N winds of 35 knots, steady 42 knots a couple of hours ago, pressure of 1003 MB, for being so close to the storm center winds are fairly strong if this was a non-subtropical system. They should come pretty close to each other in a few hours, and lets see what kind of winds are on the east side.
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#392 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue May 08, 2007 9:08 am

weak subtropical storm at best out of this.

However, this may play havoc with TPC
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#393 Postby tracyswfla » Tue May 08, 2007 9:09 am

Derek Ortt wrote:weak subtropical storm at best out of this.

However, this may play havoc with TPC


Sorry for my ignorance. Guess I could google, but where is the TPC?

PGA TOUR May 7-13 THE PLAYERS TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra, FL Stephen Ames

Got it!
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#394 Postby NDG » Tue May 08, 2007 9:12 am

tracyswfla wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:weak subtropical storm at best out of this.

However, this may play havoc with TPC


Sorry for my ignorance. Guess I could google, but where is the TPC?


NHC/Tropical Prediction Center
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#395 Postby Chacor » Tue May 08, 2007 9:12 am

EDIT: Or not. :lol:
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#396 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue May 08, 2007 9:16 am

Derek Ortt wrote:weak subtropical storm at best out of this.
I'm not sure if anyone in their right minds was forecasting a hurricane out of this. Therefore you must be correct that what everyone is looking for is a weak subtropical storm Andrea.
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#397 Postby Chacor » Tue May 08, 2007 9:16 am

NOW OFFICIALLY 90L.INVEST ON NRL.
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#398 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2007 9:17 am

Thread is now locked.Continue the discussions at the Invest 90L thread.
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