SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

It is clearly intensifying, with additional convection
and better organization. I expect Subtropical Storm Andrea
to be classified by this evening.

NRL's winds are what, already 55 mph sustained with this
low.

The NHC is always very cautious and they may wait until tomorrow to see what the RECON finds.

[sweetpea]

Looks like this thing could come right through my area..... ANY rain would be welcomed and from what I am reading from all you folks down south, I really would not be surprised if firefighters from other parts of the country start to converge on Florida. We are going to need the help. We have two fires, one in Bradford County and one in Alachua county that merged yesterday and is now one that has burned over 1600 acres so far...... BRING ON HURRICANE SEASON!

Fires are scary, over here where I live there are 6800 acres burning. The people that live over by the fires have had their cars packed for 2 days waiting to get evacuated. They say when the call comes they have to leave immediately. Brings back to many memories of the fires of 98. Don't want to have to go thru that again. Never thought I would be wishing for a storm. Unfortunately the winds have been strong here the last 2 days. Just blew my 9lb dog over. (Even though that was pretty funny, look on his face was classic )

Debbie

[HURAKAN]

90LINVEST.45kts-1000mb-304N-779W



Pressure going up and winds going down, expected as the system adquires a warmer heart!!!

[Opal storm]

I wrote this thing off last night and now I get off work to see this!

[Stratusxpeye]

oh but guys, we need this rain so desparately! seriously, I have friends that are under mandatory evacuation for wildfires right now. It is so smoky in Gainesville right now that people are using their headlights. I really hope this thing doesn't loop back out to sea.... if we don't get some rain, our area is going to be devastated. Not to mention the air quality makes it hard to breathe.....

Same here. I'm northeast of Tampa in Zephyrhills. We have a lot of smoke everythwere you go in the town. It smells like burning rubber and worse and is extremely hard to stay out and breath for very long. I would assume this is the smoke from the wildfire's in georgia.

[punkyg]

Will it be a subtropical depression at 5:00 pm.
i'm thinking maybe. what do yall think?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As it is acquiring a warmer core...I see much more
intense convection developing to the West
of the Center...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking much more tropical today, more compacted. Yes little conveciton near the center but whole says subtropical cyclones have to have convection right over the center. Nice banding over all. I would go ahead in name it if the data supports enough of a warm core. Will look at the data.

[tgenius]

Now if the system is indeed strengthening and becoming a warm-core system, do the models take this into consideration for plots or will we need the latest plots with the updated data? We need the rain more than the wind.. the wind would be more fuel for the fires

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has very nice banding forming, the upper level shear should not allow it to strengthen as it forms a warm core. That is one of the reasons it weakens.

[crownweather]

I'm looking for the BAM/A98E/LBAR TEXT output with the SHIPS/DSHIPS intensity model forecast. All I have found is the GFDL model text output....and every site that has the BAM text model is blank, example: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR

Any help would be appreciated.

[skysummit]

I'm looking for the BAM/A98E/LBAR TEXT output with the SHIPS/DSHIPS intensity model forecast. All I have found is the GFDL model text output....and every site that has the BAM text model is blank, example: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR

Any help would be appreciated.

I haven't found it either....I got my info from the NHC ftp site.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm looking for the BAM/A98E/LBAR TEXT output with the SHIPS/DSHIPS intensity model forecast. All I have found is the GFDL model text output....and every site that has the BAM text model is blank, example: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR

Any help would be appreciated.

Can't find the text on those either...

[johngaltfla]

Let's see how it does overnight. If it stays together and intensifies, I hope it drifts south. The smoke down here is unreal.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yea smoke was very bad in northeast saint petersburg this morning it blocked out
the sun somewhat!! looked like night!

[feederband]

Let's see how it does overnight. If it stays together and intensifies, I hope it drifts south. The smoke down here is unreal.

Unfortunantly I think the smoke is going to get alot worse..

[HURAKAN]

So far windshear has not been a major problem.



It has been decreasing over the past 24 hours.



And over the system it's not bad at all.

[johngaltfla]

yea smoke was very bad in northeast saint petersburg this morning it blocked out
the sun somewhat!! looked like night!

I was over in Arcadia at lunch and the smoke was so bad coming home I had to turn on my headlights. The sky was actually brown and the sun pretty much blocked out.

What a mess. We need the rain, not the wind.

[gtalum]

It seems to have cleared somewhat here in Venice. It was much worse at lunchtime, as you said.

[cycloneye]

Sandy,a reminder that when the thread reaches 25 pages it will be locked and a new one will open.Also,this thread can be locked,if the system is classified from 90L invest to whatever NHC does.If that happens also a new thread will be created and this one is locked.