SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[seaswing]

RAINDANCE.... Florida is burning up!

[Hurricane Freak PR]

Hi to all...

As Hurakan very well pointed out, the 200mb winds in the vicinity of the low are 5-10kts generally which is quite favorable, specially given the time of the year. Also we need more divergence in the upper-levels to have more convection developing from this system. The flow at 200mb is still counter clockwise which inhibits some the development of convection but it has been changing over the past 24 hours and it has been reflected on the increase of convection we've seen...

[punkyg]

I don't know how long i've been with out the air conditioner, but i know its been a while.
this morning my father and me were whining like little babys, because of the smoke. we had the windows opened all night. people i agree that we need the rain.

[Kerry04]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB - Interesting 48 hr. forecast set-up:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[tallbunch]

I live in/on Hilton Head, SC. It just now began to rain. Tropical rain...
The winds are normal though.

[Stratosphere747]

TAFB - Interesting 48 hr. forecast set-up:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

What is interesting about it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe that means it has 48 hours, also convection trying to form near center. I think the nhc is waiting to upgrade it to tropical. They don't like using subtropical, or maybe waiting for there recon.

[HURAKAN]

When they have a RECON mission planned, they usually wait until then to make any upgrades, except if something extraordinary occurs between now and tomorrow at 8 AM.

[Stratusxpeye]

I live in/on Hilton Head, SC. It just now began to rain. Tropical rain...
The winds are normal though.

I don't see much in your area but in Charleston it should start raining on and off soon. http://www.weather.com/weather/map/inte ... ayer=radar

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Windy
NW 21 at the airport Saint Pete/Clearwater
That would probably mean gusts to 30 mph

Daytona Beach Airport:
GUSTS to near Tropical Storm Force, 35 mph:

08 14:53 N 23 G 35 10.00 Partly Cloudy and Breezy

[HURAKAN]

It's looking better now.

[A1A]

Can someone explain what changed about the storm that it is now called an Invest? Why does this then begin the tropical season?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Saint Augustine, FL:
08 15:50 N 23 Gusts 35 mph

[P.K.]

Just a note if they did go out tomorrow. The decoding thread has NOT been updated for this season with the new data that is out. I'm waiting on the 2007 NHOP which should be out in a week or so.

[HURAKAN]

Can someone explain what changed about the storm that it is now called an Invest? Why does this then begin the tropical season?

It's an invest because it has a change of becoming a named (sub)tropical system. The hurricane season will begin June 1st, nothing changes that.

[wxman57]

Can someone explain what changed about the storm that it is now called an Invest? Why does this then begin the tropical season?

What's changed is that it's now closer to significantly affecting the SE US Coast. The invest was created just to run some trial models. The low IS more cut off from the frontal boundary but it's still not tropical in nature. Quite a lot of cool, dry air encircles the low center, and that won't change too quickly over the next 24 hours. There's still a chance the NHC might decide to call it STS Andrea, but most likely not tonight. Their special discussion on it gives no indication of a reclassification tonight, and I know the forecasters at the NHC still consider it cold-core.

As it drifts westward tonight and tomorrow, the center should be moving over cooler water along the east coast. So, most likely, it'll just very slowly spin down as it nears the east coast tomorrow afternoon/evening. A bit windy and, if you're lucky, some areas could get an inch or two of rain. May not move inland enough to bring the rain much inland, though.

Of course, one could argue that the NHC has refused to downgrade storms that looked pretty pitiful compared to this one in the past, so why isn't the reverse true?

[JonathanBelles]

As long as it gives us rain and gets rid of the smoke I dont care what they call it.

[NDG]

Did anyone noticed that the ship reporting near the center of the low is now reporting steady SE Winds in the mid 40mph. That's fairly strong for being so close to the center of the low, "officially" a non-tropical low.

Buoy and ship reports near low pressure center

[wxman57]

Did anyone noticed that the ship reporting near the center of the low is now reporting steady SE Winds in the mid 40mph. That's fairly strong for being so close to the center of the low, "officially" a non-tropical low.

Buoy and ship reports near low pressure center

I've been watching that ship track from SW-NE all day. It went right through the center. Currently, it's in a squall area, which would account for the 40kt wind.