Did anyone catch this today?

[SouthFloridawx]

Subject line is kind of humorous...


Mon May 7 23:10:03 EDT 2007
HURRICANE TOLBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL712007
500 PM EDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TEST...TEST...TEST...THIS IS A DRILL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT TOLBERT IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT A
RECENTLY FORMED RAGGED EYE...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL
QUADRANTS. LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 987 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOLBERT IS UPGRADED TO A 65
KT HURRICANE...THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 SEASON.

TOLBERT HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
300/13. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THIS IS A TEMPORARY WOBBLE OR
THE BEGINNING OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ATTENDANT RIDGING NOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT-TERM RESULTING IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS AS THE EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE GFDL MODEL INDICATES
A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF TOLBERT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD MOTION. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET
MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE FORMING NORTHEAST OF TOLBERT
RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
IF TOLBERT BECOMES STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL
MODELS ALL INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD RESULTING
IN A SHARP TURN AND ACCELERATION NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
TROUGH. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND THE APPARENT TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC RESULTING IN
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR BUT HAS MORE RECENTLY BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS TOLBERT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 36 HOURS...AND
LAND INTERACTIONS COULD OFFSET AN OTHERWISE NEAR OPTIMAL
ATMOSPHERIC SETUP. HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
LANDFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THE SHEAR RELAX A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER OPEN AND VERY WARM
WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER AND BEYOND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...IT IS WISE
TO PREPARE FOR AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS.

THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 23.3N 72.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 24.0N 74.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 24.9N 77.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 25.9N 79.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 27.6N 81.9W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1800Z 32.3N 83.7W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 11/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1800Z 50.0N 62.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Coredesat]

Hurricane Tolbert? That's an odd name for a test.

The landfall location was probably borrowed from Andrew, given that it's just south of Miami.

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 987 MB

The Air Force keeps hurricanes in reserve? I wonder how they do it...

[AnnularCane]

The Air Force keeps hurricanes in reserve? I wonder how they do it...

So THAT'S where they come from!


Tolbert?

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually that's a good tropical discussion. It explains the synoptic setup, uses satellite and layered (surface, middle, and upper-air) observations, and properly uses models. It's a beautiful example of a top-notch analysis. I believe the discussion is from a previous storm (some years ago). Thanks for posting the details, SouthFloridawx!

[DanKellFla]

Tolbert???? Was there a meeting where they sat around a table and discussed to worst possible name?

"Hey Knapp, what about Eugene?"
"That's my dads name"
"Uhhhh, sorry Knapp."

[Coredesat]

Well, the name "DANDAMAN" was used in a test for the CPAC once.

[Blown Away]

Landfall rate over me.

[skysummit]

Here's where "Tolbert" would've been. This would've given you the rain you needed!

[johngaltfla]

That would have been a bummer for what's left of our real estate industry down here!

[StormTracker]

Wouldn't it be ironic if a named storm actually tracked through those coordinates or very close to them this season! Maybe it's a thought out scenario of what the NHC might be expecting from a storm this season!

[johngaltfla]

Wouldn't it be ironic if a named storm actually tracked through those coordinates or very close to them this season! Maybe it's a thought out scenario of what the NHC might be expecting from a storm this season!

It would destroy our economy for a decade, not ironic, just plain scary.

[Swimdude]

As funny as this is, you all know well and good there were probably a few hundred Florida residents freakin' out when that was released! Hahaha

[fci]

Any relation to Tom Tolbert, former NBA player?

[Janie2006]

Hurricane Tolbert? That's an odd name for a test.

The landfall location was probably borrowed from Andrew, given that it's just south of Miami.

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 987 MB

The Air Force keeps hurricanes in reserve? I wonder how they do it...

Thanks a lot!! That was a state secret, you know!

[MSRobi911]

We had a Hurricane Drill at the EOC here this week, her name was Zora

Here is a link to what happened, I was in that room during Katrina and believe me, it is crammed full of people and you can't hear yourself think!


http://www.wlox.com/global/video/popup/ ... d=61645252

Mary