SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[AnnularCane]

What are the chances of this becoming fully tropical?

Sub-Tropical
NHC/TPC to issue a special statement.
Sub-Tropical Andrea has formed.
The center is located about 240 ese of Brunswick, Ga
Max winds 45. Possible TS watches and/or warnings for Ga south of Savannah to Cape Canaveral Fl.
Those in the affected areas should monitor local NWS and media for official statements.
The above is not an official statement, but, rather, a form of humor due to the history of Stom2K Forums when it comes to TD/TS/'Canes...

Awww, that was mean.

[canegrl04]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

[cycloneye]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

2004 Season



Alex was the first named system on August 1rst,not sub-tropical.Look at link.

[canegrl04]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

2004 Season



Alex was the first named system on August 1rst,not sub-tropical.Look at link.

It may be 2005 I was thinking of,but I distinctly remember a subtropical storm that formd early in the season

[senorpepr]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

You are thinking of 2003. The season started with Subtropical Storm Ana... which eventually became Tropical Storm Ana.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003ana.shtml

[RattleMan]

Ana, the first storm of the 2003 season, began as subtropical.

[Hurricanehink]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

2004 Season



Alex was the first named system on August 1rst,not sub-tropical.Look at link.

It may be 2005 I was thinking of,but I distinctly remember a subtropical storm that formd early in the season

Might you be thinking of 2003, with Tropical Storm Ana that developed in April? That started as a subtropical storm.

[eastcoastFL]

It is starting to show up on my local radar here in port st. lucie. does anyone know which way it is moving? it looks like if it moves any furth south we could get some rain.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

To be truthful Alex 2004, looked just like this in the same area as it was upgraded to a depression.

[StormTracker]

Hi all! Well HURAKAN, as you probably have noticed too, the smoke from the wildfires in North Fla./South Ga pulled into Miami about an 1 1/2 ago with slight ash fallout also! It's amazing how this system is affecting 4 or 5 different states with different scenarios(coastal flooding/erosion/high winds/smoke dispersion) and it's not even technically considered a true storm!!!

[Nimbus]

The only official forecast I've seen has the storm coming across Florida which would help out temporarily with the fires.

The last couple frames on the visible loop look almost as though it is jogging WNW instead of west?

The track is kind of important in terms of how far south the rain gets, also if the storm tracks further northwest instead of west the smoke from the big GA/FL fires will be pulled more toward the southeast away from the Tampa bay area.

The air is so dry I'm not expecting much, but it would be nice if the core could lift a little moisture.

[jdray]

I felt some tropical type rain leaving work @ 5:30PM.

Its trying to be tropical.

[HURAKAN]

Hi all! Well HURAKAN, as you probably have noticed too, the smoke from the wildfires in North Fla./South Ga pulled into Miami about an 1 1/2 ago with slight ash fallout also! It's amazing how this system is affecting 4 or 5 different states with different scenarios(coastal flooding/erosion/high winds/smoke dispersion) and it's not even technically considered a true storm!!!

Yes, it's horrible outside to say the least.

Some pictures of the blurred Sun.

[Patrick99]

This is a subtropical storm if I've ever seen one. Not a STRONG storm by any means, but why wouldn't the NHC give this a name? It's completely detached from fronts, symmetrical (more so than plenty of tropical systems we've seen), over (relatively) warm water, and has convection trying to wrap around the center. What more do you need?

Yeah, it *is* really nasty down here in Miami. It doesn't even smell like the typical brushfire....it smells like burning tires. I'm getting the ash fallout....my eyes and throat felt the smoke immediately.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a subtropical storm if I've ever seen one. Not a STRONG storm by any means, but why wouldn't the NHC give this a name? It's completely detached from fronts, symmetrical (more so than plenty of tropical systems we've seen), over (relatively) warm water, and has convection trying to wrap around the center. What more do you need?

Yeah, it *is* really nasty down here in Miami. It doesn't even smell like the typical brushfire....it smells like burning tires. I'm getting the ash fallout....my eyes and throat felt the smoke immediately.

I agree, it has enough to be a subtropical storm. We will have to see if larger area of convection forms over the center to turn it tropical.

[Noah]

Does anyone have a link to tracking invests and storms they can post for me. I mean like the model plotter types, I cant read all the fancy ones.
Here in sarasota it was orange out for hours. We have fires going on all around us. Anyone with any respiatory problems and such were having troubles. People were driving with there lights on.
I have asked several times on different posts if anyone though we might get rain in sarasota, I am 1 hour south of Tampa. I know there are lots of tampa and st pete folks on this board.

[RattleMan]

Does anyone have a link to tracking invests and storms they can post for me. I mean like the model plotter types, I cant read all the fancy ones.
Here in sarasota it was orange out for hours. We have fires going on all around us. Anyone with any respiatory problems and such were having troubles. People were driving with there lights on.
I have asked several times on different posts if anyone though we might get rain in sarasota, I am 1 hour south of Tampa. I know there are lots of tampa and st pete folks on this board.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[cycloneye]

Didn't the 2004 season get started with a subtropical storm? There was a big debate about that one

As the others said,Ana in 2003 was Subtropical before they classified it as Tropical Storm Ana.Here is a good image of Ana when it was Subtropical.

[Noah]

Does anyone have a link to tracking invests and storms they can post for me. I mean like the model plotter types, I cant read all the fancy ones.
Here in sarasota it was orange out for hours. We have fires going on all around us. Anyone with any respiatory problems and such were having troubles. People were driving with there lights on.
I have asked several times on different posts if anyone though we might get rain in sarasota, I am 1 hour south of Tampa. I know there are lots of tampa and st pete folks on this board.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Thank you rattleman, I had that plotter site last year and could not find it again.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.3 77.9 270./ 5.0
6 30.5 78.3 302./ 3.6
12 30.8 79.1 286./ 7.1
18 31.1 79.7 297./ 6.0
24 31.3 80.0 304./ 3.4
30 31.2 80.8 263./ 7.0
36 30.8 80.9 197./ 4.4
42 30.8 81.1 282./ 2.0
48 30.4 81.7 236./ 6.5
54 30.0 81.7 178./ 3.8
60 30.0 81.7 59./ .5
66 30.1 82.0 272./ 2.7
72 30.0 82.2 259./ 2.2
78 29.8 82.4 214./ 2.1
84 29.6 82.5 223./ 2.3
90 29.5 82.6 191./ 2.0
96 29.4 82.4 93./ 1.8
102 29.4 82.5 247./ 1.2
108 29.3 82.6 238./ 1.7
114 29.2 83.0 256./ 2.9
120 29.4 83.3 305./ 3.3
126 29.7 84.3 288./ 9.3

For those who are interested in what the GFDL model does with 90L trackwise,here is the 18z run.