SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[CronkPSU]

Convection is lacking near the center.If this thing is going to become Andrea,convection has to build near the center,and time is running out.

More Convection Please!!!!!
I would be very worried if this were Mid Aug. to Early Oct.

wow, did you see that southward job on that last frame, it's headed straight for Jacksonville!!!

just kidding


sorry I couldn't resist

[CrazyC83]

Diurnal minimum perhaps is the reason for low convection?

[Stratusxpeye]

Convection is lacking near the center.If this thing is going to become Andrea,convection has to build near the center,and time is running out.

More Convection Please!!!!!
I would be very worried if this were Mid Aug. to Early Oct.

wow, did you see that southward job on that last frame, it's headed straight for Jacksonville!!!

just kidding


sorry I couldn't resist

NO! I tell you im looking at the visible and it was a WOBBLE!. Ha those days are coming. But this statement from TWC is strange.

"What began as a mid-latitude or extratropical low pressure system has transitioned to what is known as a subtropical storm."
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

Theyv'e been saying it IS a SubTropical Storm. Therefore it would have a name correct? Are they trying to hype or is this the case? I assume NHC would not give this a name enless they verify it has more tropical characteristics? Or Waited on recon for strength?

[wxman57]

Diurnal minimum perhaps is the reason for low convection?

More likely stable, cool/dry air all around the low center. It appears to be slowly winding down.

[Category 5]

000
WONT41 KNHC 090312
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST
OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS EVENING...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

So recon is no longer "if necessary"....

[StormScanWx]

Not even hurricane season yet, and already something interesting to watch!

[jaxfladude]

000
WONT41 KNHC 090312
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST
OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS EVENING...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[font=Arial Black]AND SO IT BEGINS....... [/font]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is moving into the deeper convection on the northern side. So its becoming better organized, which sould help it to form the warm core. Recon should at least I think a subtropical storm.

[Chacor]

Convection is starting to get colder...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The convection has grown much much colder, but the center is still exposed. I think this is deserving of subtropical.

[Coredesat]

If the system has a warm core, I would agree that I think the system is closer to being a subtropical storm now than it has ever been, though I would like to see more convection in the SW quadrant.

Latest Hebert-Poteat fix from SAB:

09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The northern Band is forming over the center. So as it forms over the center, it should warm the core. This is starting to look very good.

[Thunder44]

It looks like it's taken in a little dry air on the SW side but overall there is deeper convection around the apparently large center. The pressure has actually dropped a couple mbs since yesterday evening down to 1000mb according to surface analysis by TPC and PSU Eyewall. The only thing that I'm not find any reports of sustained TS force winds, although I think they will probably send the plane out to investigate later this morning. It looks like a subtropical cyclone to me.

[Thunder44]

Recon has taken off:


000
SXXX50 KNHC 090933
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 02 KNHC
0924 3025N 08855W 00000 0005 360 000 176 118 000 00000 0000000000
0924. 3025N 08855W 00000 0005 360 000 176 116 000 00000 0000000000
0925 3025N 08855W 00000 0004 360 000 176 116 000 00000 0000000000
0925. 3025N 08855W 00000 0005 360 000 176 120 000 00000 0000000000
0926 3025N 08855W 00000 0004 360 000 178 116 000 00000 0000000000
0926. 3025N 08855W 00000 0004 360 000 180 120 000 00000 0000000000
0927 3025N 08855W 00000 0006 360 000 180 120 000 00000 0000000000
0927. 3025N 08855W 00000 0006 360 000 180 122 000 00000 0000000000
0928 3025N 08855W 00000 0004 310 000 180 122 001 00000 0000000000
0928. 3025N 08855W 00004 0000 331 005 176 116 007 00014 0000000000
0929 3024N 08856W 00128 0012 354 008 226 072 009 00150 0000000000
0929. 3022N 08857W 00308 0023 357 006 218 068 007 00341 0000000000
0930 3021N 08855W 00581 0028 045 005 196 050 006 00629 0000000000
0930. 3022N 08853W 00873 0046 092 009 174 022 011 00940 0000000000
0931 3023N 08852W 01158 0052 105 012 152 001 014 01240 0000000000
0931. 3025N 08851W 01514 0062 113 009 124 036 012 01610 0000000000
0932 3026N 08849W 01852 0071 080 007 102 013 011 01957 0000000000
0932. 3027N 08848W 02143 0082 034 013 104 199 013 02262 0000000000
0933 3028N 08846W 02417 0090 019 012 092 233 013 02548 0000000000
0933. 3029N 08844W 02699 0102 022 015 084 207 017 02842 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good, convection is starting to form over the center. As the recon go's off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 090953
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 04 KNHC
0944 3045N 08802W 05789 0233 016 022 125 125 022 06101 0000000100
0944. 3045N 08759W 05788 0230 017 022 125 125 022 06097 0000000100
0945 3045N 08756W 05792 0235 018 022 125 125 022 06105 0000000100
0945. 3045N 08753W 05791 0238 014 022 121 121 022 06107 0000000000
0946 3046N 08751W 05791 0242 012 021 117 341 022 06111 0000000000
0946. 3046N 08748W 05792 0194 007 021 113 379 022 06063 0000000000
0947 3046N 08745W 05790 0228 007 021 111 343 022 06096 0000000000
0947. 3046N 08742W 05792 0223 013 022 111 347 022 06093 0000000000
0948 3046N 08739W 05792 0229 007 021 111 353 021 06099 0000000000
0948. 3046N 08736W 05789 0207 005 021 109 347 021 06074 0000000000
0949 3047N 08733W 05790 0221 015 021 111 363 021 06089 0000000000
0949. 3047N 08731W 05791 0201 019 021 111 373 022 06070 0000000000
0950 3047N 08728W 05792 0210 026 022 111 387 022 06079 0000000000
0950. 3047N 08725W 05790 0194 031 023 111 391 023 06062 0000000000
0951 3047N 08722W 05792 0219 033 023 111 397 023 06089 0000000000
0951. 3047N 08719W 05792 0231 031 023 111 399 023 06100 0000000000
0952 3048N 08717W 05791 0247 026 023 111 401 023 06116 0000000000
0952. 3048N 08714W 05791 0199 028 023 111 403 023 06067 0000000000
0953 3048N 08711W 05791 0187 029 023 111 399 024 06056 0000000000
0953. 3048N 08708W 05792 0183 028 024 111 397 024 06052 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
SXXX50 KNHC 091003
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 KNHC
0954 3048N 08705W 05792 0207 026 024 111 395 025 06047 0000000000
0954. 3048N 08703W 05792 0241 022 024 113 399 025 06046 0000000000
0955 3049N 08700W 05791 0240 022 025 115 393 026 06045 0000000000
0955. 3049N 08657W 05792 0239 021 026 115 393 026 06044 0000000000
0956 3049N 08654W 05792 0238 021 026 117 395 026 06043 0000000000
0956. 3048N 08651W 05792 0238 017 026 121 395 027 06043 0000000000
0957 3048N 08649W 05791 0238 017 026 117 403 027 06042 0000000000
0957. 3048N 08646W 05792 0238 015 027 115 411 027 06043 0000000000
0958 3048N 08643W 05792 0238 016 027 119 419 027 06043 0000000000
0958. 3047N 08640W 05792 0237 018 025 121 415 025 06042 0000000000
0959 3047N 08637W 05791 0237 017 024 121 367 025 06042 0000000000
0959. 3047N 08634W 05793 0237 013 025 121 389 025 06043 0000000000
1000 3047N 08631W 05791 0237 010 025 121 357 025 06042 0000000000
1000. 3046N 08629W 05791 0236 008 026 121 377 027 06041 0000000000
1001 3046N 08626W 05791 0234 010 026 121 371 027 06039 0000000000
1001. 3046N 08623W 05791 0233 011 027 121 377 027 06038 0000000000
1002 3046N 08620W 05791 0235 010 027 121 357 027 06040 0000000000
1002. 3045N 08617W 05792 0237 009 028 121 363 028 06042 0000000000
1003 3045N 08614W 05791 0237 013 026 121 329 027 06042 0000000000
1003. 3045N 08611W 05791 0238 011 026 121 321 026 06043 0000000000

[Thunder44]

Matt we should start a new thread for recon.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Trebuchet]A GOOD NIGHT SLEEP BEAUTIFIES YOU!!![/font]

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