SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[JonathanBelles]

It looks really good right now. I hope it can pull itself together.

[HURAKAN]

[TampaFl]

[cycloneye]

If recon finds a warm core low,then a statement will be made upgrading this.If that occurs,this thread will be locked and a new Andrea thread will be made by any member.

[bvigal]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 090610
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
SUBTROPICAL-LOOKING AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N79W
WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRES OF 1000 MB AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
W TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST. A HIGH-RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 2328 UTC THIS EVENING DEPICTS THE WIND
FIELD AS A BROAD DOUGHNUT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM S OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM WINDS SHOWN IN THE DATA ARE 50
KT...BUT THESE ARE COLLOCATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SO
THE ESTIMATES COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED. DATA JUST OUTSIDE THE
BAND WITHIN THE JAX/MLB COASTAL WATERS ARE RUNNING 35-40 KT
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 31-33 KT WHICH HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT BUOY 41012.

WHETHER OR NOT THIS LOW BECOMES MORE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING HORRENDOUSLY. THE PRES
OF THE SYSTEM IS RUNNING ABOUT 5 MB LOWER THAN WHAT WAS FCST 24
HRS AGO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING THE
WINDS BELOW GALE BY MORNING. INSTEAD...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING AT LEAST STRONG GALE CRITERIA WITH SOME BANDS OF
CONVECTION GETTING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. WE ARE NOW GETTING GFDL
GUIDANCE AND AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS GALES GOING UNTIL A MODEL-FCST LANDFALL SOMETIME THU
MORNING. THE NAM 0-30 MB WINDS ALSO GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND BRINGS WINDS BELOW 35 KT BY SUNRISE THU. EVEN AS
THE CENTER TRACKS W OVER THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS...SW WINDS
WITHIN THE SE QUAD WILL STILL BE OVER THE GULF STREAM AND COULD
STILL PRODUCE GALES. I WOULD ALSO RATHER KEEP THE WARNING GOING
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE LATER
TODAY WHEN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

NWW3 GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...SHOWING 13 FT
WHERE BUOY 41012 IS REPORTING UP TO 15 FT. SINCE GFS GUIDANCE
QUICKLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY...THE NWW3 FOLLOWS
SUIT WITH QUICKLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SINCE THE FCST WILL LEAN ON
THE STRONGER GFDL/NAM RUNS...SEAS WILL BE KEPT INTO THE 12-14 FT
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE HIGHER WIND REGIME.

[HURAKAN]

If recon finds a warm core low,then a statement will be made upgrading this.If that occurs,this thread will be locked and a new Andrea thread will be made by any member.

This is so exciting to start a season. Still, Ana in 2003 was a much less anticipated surprise.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LARGE 1000 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR
31N79W...OR ABOUT 125 NM EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THESE WINDS ARE
PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND THE BAHAMAS...BUT OVERALL WAVE ACTION HAS SUBSIDED
QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE NW SWELL IS ALSO
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM...WITH THE NEW 41043 BUOY
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO REGISTERING 5-6 FT LONGER PERIOD SWELL OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1044.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

Is this only activated during hurricane season?

[cycloneye]

Yes.

[ronjon]

Looks like the storm is heading W-SW or SW now closer to the GFDL or NOGAPs 00Z tracks. If it maintains itself, it is looking increasing likely for a landfall near JAX or perhaps as far south as St Aug.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[bvigal]

Is this only activated during hurricane season?

Hurakan, that will take the place of high wind/seas graphic beginning May 15.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/hiw ... testBW.gif

[cycloneye]

Plenty of color trying to wrap around especially north and SE of the center.

[HURAKAN]

First visible of the day. Looks impressive compared days before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will see if we find a warm core, I think the warm core will be deeper around the very center. Mostly because of the convection having already forming. While the system which has not been able to form convection yet,,,will have a very weak warm core. Personnally feel like we will have a even temp through out edge of convection to center=subtropical. We will see.

[Thunder44]

Notice how the thunderstorms are curve-banding around the center, instead of clustering around it. That definitely a tropical characteristic.

[HURAKAN]

90LINVEST.50kts-1000mb-307N-787W



Winds have increased according to NRL.

[KatDaddy]

Looks quite impressive this morning. We could have STS Andrea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1981 had 12 named storms, so slightly more active then last season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That includes the subtropical november system.

[HURAKAN]