SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA, Analysis, Sat Pics, Models Thread

[skysummit]

That's 44mph!

[ncupsscweather]

000
WONT41 KNHC 091303
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

38.4 kts * 1.15 mph/kts = 44.2 mph

[drezee]

40 kts now

[Derek Ortt]

NRL now has Andrea, so STS designation now appears likely

[jdray]

NRL shows it as 01LAndrea.

I think that should be official enough?

Its not the backup site either.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Last recon message included this line:

1305 3129N 07832W 00244 5071 136 048 182 180 050 00183 0000000100

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

40 kts is about 46 mph wow impressive!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Will she continue to strengthen before reaching land or will she most likely weaken as she enters cooler shelf waters?

Also, where do folks think she is heading? -hopefully she can help douse these fires that the SE is being plagued with! Our fire alarm was intermittently going off yesterday morning and again last night IN THE HOUSE because of the poor air quality! I finally had to just unplug the thing at 2am! *yawn

[sweetpea]

This is what our local news in Orlando is saying. I am praying for rain, let my dog out this morning and he came in coughing from the smoke. It is bad here, can barely see the house behind me.

http://www.wftv.com/news/13269437/detail.html

Debbie

[dixiebreeze]

NRL shows it as 01LAndrea.

I think that should be official enough?

Its not the backup site either.

I agree: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[Thunder44]

Will she continue to strengthen before reaching land or will she most likely weaken as she enters cooler shelf waters?

Also, where do folks think she is heading? -hopefully she can help douse these fires that the SE is being plagued with! Our fire alarm was intermittently going off yesterday morning and again last night IN THE HOUSE because of the poor air quality! I finally had to just unplug the thing at 2am! *yawn

Since it's not fully tropical, it may be able to maintain it's current strength before any landfall.

[wxman57]

40 kts is about 46 mph wow impressive!

That's 20 mph less than 2 days ago. No question it has had TS-force winds since Monday. The only question is whehter core is warm enough

[tailgater]

So when is the last time any type of tropical system has visited the Ga. or N Fla. coast. I know it's fairly Rare

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

40 kts is about 46 mph wow impressive!

That's 20 mph less than 2 days ago. No question it has had TS-force winds since Monday. The only question is whehter core is warm enough

Wxman57 do you think it's warm core right now?

[Chacor]

09/1302 UTC 30.7N 79.1W ST3.0/3.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[skysummit]

It's still a low pressure system throughout all layers....still technically a cold core.

[miamicanes177]

The only question is whehter core is warm enough

This question has been answered as NRL site says Andrea and Dr. Jeff Masters says it is Andrea as well. NHC also said it was acquiring the characteristics of a subtropical cyclone.

[tracyswfla]

I wonder if NHC will send an official upgrade statement.

[skysummit]

Finally a TCF alert...